Follow us on social

Not leaving empty handed: Zelensky gets his ATACMs

Not leaving empty handed: Zelensky gets his ATACMs

But they may not be the game changer he wanted

Analysis | QiOSK

So it looks like Ukrainian President Zelensky did not leave Washington empty handed this week after all. According to reports this afternoon, the Biden administration has relented and will transfer long range ATACMs, long considered too escalatory for the conflict, to Ukraine in the “upcoming weeks,” according to POLITICO.

The ATACMs variant that the U.S. is reportedly considering, according to the Washington Post (which, unlike POLITICO says the administration is "nearing an announcement") uses controversial cluster munitions, another old "red line" for the administration in this war, instead of a single warhead. This is not exactly what the Ukrainians had hoped for.

"You don't take out big, high-value targets with cluster munitions," points out my colleague George Beebe, QI's Director of Grand Strategy. "(These ATACMs) might complicate things well behind Russian front lines, causing the Russians to have to move some supply depots and worry a bit more about supply lines. But even then, nothing close to a game-changer. Russia can and will adjust."

It is interesting, nonetheless, that Biden waited until after Zelensky was out of town, away from microphones and safely ensconced in meetings in Canada before allowing his people to drop this bombshell (pun intended). That’s a typical Friday in Washington — save your potentially controversial news for Friday afternoon.

According to POLITICO, Biden made the pledge behind closed doors Thursday and two unnamed officials tipped off the press today :

President Joe Biden promised his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, that the United States will soon provide Kyiv with a small number of long-range missiles to help its war with Russia, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

Biden made the pledge to Zelenskyy during the Ukrainian leader’s visit to the White House on Thursday, fulfilling a long-held wish by Kyiv, according to the officials who like others for this story were granted anonymity to speak about private conversations.

Ukraine, for all obvious reasons, has wanted ATACMs (Army Tactical Missile Systems ) because they have a range of 190 miles which would allow its military to target Russian assets inside Russian territory, including Russia-occupied Crimea. Currently they have American HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems), which have a range of about 50 miles.

As my colleague, reporter Connor Echols pointed out in a story on Sept. 12 the HIMARs were once a “red line” for the Biden administration, which feared they would be too escalatory. The weapons were transferred nonetheless starting in June 2022. In July 2022, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters, at the suggestion that ATACMs would be next, that such a transfer would risk putting the U.S. and Russia on “the road towards a third world war.”

It’s clear now, after the Abrams tanks, another red line, and approving the transfer of F-16, another red line, from European partners to Ukraine, that the ATACMs were inevitable. The White House wants to give Ukrainians the best possible chance to fulfill the goals of its struggling counteroffensive.

While many say the move may only draw us closer to a direct conflict with Russia, others like Beebe say it would be more impactful if the ATACMs were fitted with unitary missiles, which would have improved Ukrainians' lethal capabilities considerably.

"Ukraine wanted a weapon with long-range strategic strike capability," he added. "They are getting instead a long-range anti-personnel weapon."


President Joe Biden and First Lady Dr. Jill Biden greet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Mrs. Olena Zelenska of Ukraine at the South Portico of the White House. (Photo by Allison Bailey/NurPhoto)
Analysis | QiOSK
Trump's most underrated diplomatic win: Belarus
Top image credit: Brian Jason and Siarhei Liudkevich via shutterstock.com

Trump's most underrated diplomatic win: Belarus

Europe

Rarely are foreign policy scholars and analysts blessed with as crystalline a case study in abject failure as the Western approach to Belarus since 2020. From promoting concrete security interests, advancing human rights to everything in between, there is no metric by which anything done toward Minsk can be said to have worked.

But even more striking has been the sheer sense of aggrieved befuddlement with the Trump administration for acknowledging this reality and seeking instead to repair ties with Belarus.

keep readingShow less
These Israeli-backed gangs could wreck the Gaza ceasefire
Ashraf al-Mansi walks in front of members of his Popular Army militia. The group, previously known as the Counter-Terrorism Service, has worked with the Israeli military and is considered by many in Gaza to be a criminal gang. (Via the Facebook page of Yasser Abu Shabab)

These Israeli-backed gangs could wreck the Gaza ceasefire

Middle East

Frightening images have emerged from Gaza in the week since a fragile ceasefire took hold between Israel and Hamas. In one widely circulated video, seven blindfolded men kneel in line with militants arrayed behind them. Gunshots ring out in unison, and the row of men collapse in a heap as dozens of spectators look on.

The gruesome scenes appear to be part of a Hamas effort to reestablish control over Gaza through a crackdown on gangs and criminal groups that it says have proliferated during the past two years of war and chaos. In the minds of Israel and its backers, the killings reveal Hamas’ true colors — and represent a preview of what the group may do if it’s allowed to maintain some degree of power.

keep readingShow less
Poland farmers protest EU
Top photo credit: Several thousand people rally against a proposed EU migration scheme in Warsaw, Poland on 11 October, 2025. In a rally organized by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party thousands gathered to oppose the EU migration pact and an agriculture deal with Mercosur countries. (Photo by Jaap Arriens / Sipa USA)

Poland’s Janus face on Ukraine is untenable

Europe

Of all the countries in Europe, Poland grapples with deep inconsistencies in its approach to both Russia and to Ukraine. As a result, the pro-Europe coalition government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk is coming under increasing pressure as the duplicity becomes more evident.

In its humanitarian response to Ukraine since the war began in 2022, Poland has undoubtedly been one of the most generous among European countries. Its citizens and NGOs threw open their doors to provide food and shelter to Ukrainian women and children fleeing for safety. By 2023, over 1.6 million Ukrainian refugees had applied for asylum or temporary protection in Poland, with around 1 million still present in Poland today.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.