Follow us on social

Modi Xi

Biden's vaunted 'allies & partners' have their own ideas

A series of events show how countries like India and Japan may be seeking more independence from the American-led order

Analysis | Asia-Pacific

A series of events last month underscored the Indo-Pacific’s shift toward a balance shaped increasingly by the actions and priorities of regional states rather than Western intervention led by the United States.

This shift reflects both Asia's internal dynamics and Western miscalculations, which have collectively accelerated the transition.

In mid-October, China and India agreed to disengage their militaries and restore patrolling rights along the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC). This move, significant for both regional stability and strategic reallocation, presents an opportunity for Beijing and New Delhi to improve bilateral relations and focus military resources on other priorities — such as China’s interest in Taiwan.

For years, tensions along the LAC have been a defining feature of Asia’s strategic environment. Any improvement in relations between these two major Asian powers signals a profound shift, with potential ripple effects across regional security, economic partnerships, and diplomatic alliances.

Closer cooperation between China and India could pave the way for a coordinated effort to reshape Asia’s regional order, aligned more closely with the interests, values, and priorities of Asian states. Both nations share a vision of foreign policy that emphasizes autonomy from Western agendas, and a China-India détente could foster stronger policy alignment among the Global South.

This trend was evident at the 16th annual BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 22, where representatives from countries like Brazil, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey gathered to discuss the need for a new world order. The summit, which hosted 36 state representatives— the largest BRICS gathering to date — underscored the growing consensus among developing nations on issues like multilateralism, international financial reform, and collective autonomy from Western influence.

Russia’s successful hosting of the event further highlighted the limits of Western-led efforts to isolate Moscow and showcased the willingness of large developing economies to collaborate in reducing the West’s influence on global governance.

A significant step toward this strategic realignment came as China’s President Xi Jinping and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi used the BRICS platform to pledge further rapprochement, signaling a deepening partnership that challenges Western assumptions about regional alignments. This evolving partnership within BRICS could signify a broader trend of strategic cooperation, where Asian powers prioritize regional stability and economic integration over the security-driven approaches favored by Euro-Atlantic nations.

Adding to this trend, North Korea began deploying troops to Russia in early October, marking an unprecedented intervention in a European conflict involving NATO. Some North Korean troops reportedly reached the frontline in the Kursk region, escalating the Ukraine conflict and highlighting the erosion of U.S. influence over its adversaries.

This collaboration between North Korea and Russia has significant strategic implications for the U.S., as two of its foremost adversaries now have formalized military ties and are operationalizing their collaboration in opposition to Washington’s security interests. Within Asia, North Korean forces also destroyed key roads connecting North and South Korea, further intensifying the region’s security risks, especially for South Korea and Japan — two of the U.S.’s critical military allies in Northeast Asia.

Early October also saw China conduct a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan in response to a National Day speech by Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, which Beijing deemed inflammatory. The exercise, Joint Sword 2024B, involved the People’s Liberation Army Navy, Air Force, Rocket Force, and China Coast Guard, demonstrating China’s capability to blockade Taiwan — a move Taiwan's leaders called an “act of war.”

On October 23, China conducted live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait, warning Taiwan and its Western partners against steps toward de facto independence. While Taiwan's leadership described these drills as routine, the context of heightened regional tensions and recent Western naval transits through the Strait by Canada and the U.S. suggests a rapidly deteriorating security situation.

In Japan, newly elected Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has repeatedly advocated for revising the Japan-U.S. Forces Agreement, suggesting a push for Japan to develop its own military strategy. He proposed the establishment of Japanese bases in Guam and a “nuclear sharing” agreement with the U.S., arguing that the current arrangement is “unequal” and emphasizing Japan’s need for security autonomy.

This stance, while technically in favor of deepening U.S.-Japan military cooperation, also reflects a growing desire for greater agency in Japan’s defense policies. Washington has expressed concern over Ishiba’s vision, as it raises questions about the long-standing dependency model that has underpinned the U.S.-Japan alliance. Adding to U.S. unease is the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) stunning election loss in late October, which has introduced a period of political instability in Japan. This instability may weaken Ishiba’s ability to effectively manage the U.S.-Japan alliance and secure necessary defense funding, especially given the LDP’s new minority position.

Southeast Asian states also demonstrated their push for greater autonomy at the 44th Annual ASEAN Summit in Laos, where leaders prioritized economic integration and regional cooperation over defense concerns. Topics such as digital trade, supply chain management, sustainable agriculture, and environmental protection took precedence, highlighting a pragmatic approach to regional growth. Only the Philippines prioritized the discussion of South China Sea tensions, setting its foreign policy apart from other ASEAN states, which appear to prefer detachment from contentious security issues.

This series of events in October represents more than isolated incidents; collectively, they illustrate a structural realignment within Asia. The region is moving away from a paradigm where Euro-Atlantic nations drive security policies, evolving into a complex network of relationships less dependent on Western influence. Increasingly, the paths for countries throughout Asia are being defined by their own strategic calculations, which often conflict with the West's Indo-Pacific agendas. The West now faces a more challenging environment, where involvement in regional security comes with higher risks, exemplified by North Korea’s European engagement and Japan’s shift toward defense independence.

Asia’s transformation is propelled by the agency of regional powers and the Global South’s willingness to counterbalance Western dominance. However, Western miscalculations have also expedited this shift. For example, Western powers have built their Indo-Pacific strategies on the assumption that India would remain a reliable partner in counterbalancing China. Countries like the U.S., UK, Australia, and others saw India as a stable anchor with a steadfastly adversarial stance toward Beijing. But India’s actions this October, including its rebuffed attempt to reconcile with Canada after accusations of extraterritorial actions, reveal a more nuanced and independent approach to its foreign relations.

The U.S. narrative around the Quad, presented in the Wilmington Declaration as a “club of democracies” committed to an inclusive Indo-Pacific, also faces challenges. India’s actions, including its ties with Russia and domestic policies, contrast with the Western ideal of a democratic counterweight to China. While Washington has largely overlooked these inconsistencies to maintain alignment, India’s pursuit of its own strategic interests complicates the U.S. position.

In light of October’s developments, the West must reconsider its approach in Asia. The U.S.-led Indo-Pacific strategies that aim to counter Chinese influence may be misaligned with the region’s realities. The ASEAN and BRICS summits demonstrated Asia’s preference for cooperation with China, challenging the U.S. expectation that regional states would embrace a containment strategy. China’s leadership role in these forums indicates its ascension as the predominant strategic power in Asia.

Looking forward, Western powers need to adapt their strategies to align more closely with Asia’s evolving priorities. A more collaborative model that respects regional autonomy would help preserve Western influence. As Asia asserts itself, the West’s continued reliance on containment and alignment may risk marginalizing its role in a region increasingly defined by endogenous dynamics and mutual interests among regional powers.


Top image credit: Chinese President Xi Jinping and India Prime Minister Narendra Modi meet on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia October 23, 2024. China Daily via REUTERS
Analysis | Asia-Pacific
Capital Washington D.C. Pentagon Department of Defense DOD
Top photo: credit Shutterstock. A 5% hike in US military spending would be absolutely nuts
A 5% hike in US military spending would be absolutely nuts

Report: Pentagon will likely fail audits through 2028

Washington Politics

The Defense Department has not taken adequate measures to address “significant fraud exposure,” and its timeline for fixing “pervasive weaknesses in its finances” is not likely to be met, according to a recently released government report.

The Government Accountability Office conducted the report to assist the Pentagon in meeting its timeline for a clean audit by 2028. DOD has failed every audit since it was legally required to submit to one each year beginning in 2018. In fact, the Pentagon is the only one of 24 federal agencies that has not been able to pass an unmodified financial audit since the Chief Financial Officers Act of 1990.

keep readingShow less
Turkey earthquake
Top photo credit: Hatay Turkey - February, 09,2023 : Aid is distributed to earthquake victims. (Shutterstock)/ BFA-Basin Foto Ajansi)

Americans strongly support basics but are split on other foreign aid

Global Crises

An overwhelming majority of voting-age Americans support providing humanitarian and food aid to developing countries, but they are more divided along partisan lines on other forms of U.S. assistance to nations of the Global South, according to new poll results released by the Pew Research Center.

The findings come as the White House last week released a “skinny budget” that proposed a nearly 48% cut to total foreign aid, including a 40% reduction in humanitarian assistance, for next year and signaled its intent to rescind nearly half the current year’s aid budget appropriated by Congress but not yet spent.

keep readingShow less
George Simion Romania
Top photo credit: Bucharest, Romania. 13th Jan, 2025: George Simion (C), the leader of the nationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) lead the rally against the annulment of the presidential elections (LCV/Shutterstock)

he presidential elections

A nationalist bucks pro-EU status quo, wins big in Romania

Europe

The head of Romania’s “sovereigntist” camp, George Simion won Romania’s first round presidential race on Sunday with 41% of the vote in a field of 11 candidates.

Simion leads the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) party, the leading opposition force in parliament. Simion — who as president would have substantial powers in the realm of foreign and security policy — supports Romania’s NATO commitments, but is not an enthusiastic supporter of sending further military aid to Ukraine. His victory could strengthen the dissident camp on this issue within the EU.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.