Follow us on social

||

Diplomacy Watch: Blinken in Kyiv, Full speed ahead

But as one journalist noted, 'None of that is (in) the cards at the moment as the devastated and depopulated country is struggling to prevent a collapse on the frontline'

Reporting | QiOSK

Headlines out of Ukraine in recent weeks have been grim. Military officers on the front lines say that the situation in the country’s east is approaching “critical.” The country is facing a serious manpower and weapons shortage. The Russian offensive is reportedly accelerating. Privately, Biden administration officials are wondering whether — even with the latest tranche of U.S. aid secured — Ukraine will be able to win this war.

Listening to Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s speech this week in Kyiv, however, none of this reality was apparent. The tone of Blinken’s speech was optimistic — he referred to the war as a “strategic failure” for Moscow and a “strategic success” for Kyiv. He maintained that Ukraine would win the war and eventually join NATO as a thriving democracy with an economy rebuilt from seized Russian assets.

“All of these measures – Ukraine’s increased integration with, and support from, NATO; a growing network of security agreements with individual countries; a booming defense industrial base – all of these will ensure that the moment conditions are met and Allies agree, Ukraine’s invitation and accession to the Alliance will be swift and smooth,” Blinken said. “These measures will also ensure that if Russia is ever serious about negotiating a truly just and lasting peace with Ukraine, your military prowess will be formidable, your hand strong, your path to Europe and NATO secure.”

As the journalist Leonid Ragozin noted on X, “None of that is on the cards at the moment as the devastated and depopulated country is struggling to prevent a collapse on the frontline.”

The rhetoric is indicative of an administration that has been unwilling to adapt its approach or messaging on the war regardless of changing dynamics. The administration has said that continuing to support Ukraine to improve its battlefield situation will provide Kyiv with a stronger hand at any future negotiations, but has made no indication that such talks are forthcoming and has avoided answering crucial questions about the war’s endgame.

Notably, the speech contained no specific reference to Ukraine’s territorial ambitions. Independent journalist Ken Klippenstein reported on leaked talking points from the secretary’s trip, which included as a trip objective “highlight[ing] U.S. support for a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace” that includes respect for Ukraine’s territorial integrity “within its internationally recognized borders,” which would include Crimea and the Donbas. Blinken’s speech did not mention either of those regions or include “internationally recognized borders.”

In other diplomatic news related to the war in Ukraine:

— During his visit, Blinken also indicated that Washington was open to Ukraine using U.S. weapons to hit targets inside Russia. "We've not enabled or encouraged strikes outside of Ukraine, but ultimately, Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it's going to conduct this war," he said. Until now, the Biden administration has reportedly told Ukraine not to strike inside Russia, which has been a point of tension between Washington and Kyiv.

— Russian President Vladimir Putin is traveling to China this week. In advance of his trip, Putin expressed support for China’s peace plan. "We are positive in our assessment of China's approach to solving the Ukrainian crisis," Putin said, according to a translation of a Russian transcript on the Kremlin website. "In Beijing, they truly understand its root causes and its global geopolitical meaning." China has tried to portray itself as a peacemaker in the conflict, and has reportedly been urging Western countries to invite Moscow to upcoming peace summits.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was set to go to Spain and Portugal this week, but he canceled his plans on Wednesday. No official reason was provided, but media reports suggest that he decided to stay in Ukraine amid the Russian attacks in the country.

— British foreign secretary David Cameron pitched Donald Trump on pursuing a peace deal if he returns to White House in 2025, as part of an effort to convince the former pressident to support aid for Ukraine, according to The Sunday Times.

“Cameron’s message was simple: ‘What are the best conditions in which you as president can make a deal in January? It’s both sides holding their lines and paying a price for that.’ Trump is understood to have responded: ‘No one has set that out for me in these terms. And I’m glad we had the conversation,’” according to the Sunday Times. The suggestion of such a peace proposal would mark a significant shift in the UK’s approach to the war.

Since the report was published, officials have tried to squash speculation that the West was planning to force Kyiv to the negotiating table.

“There is just no sense at all in which Britain would try to persuade, strong-arm or otherwise, Ukraine into accepting giving up some of their territory. That's a decision entirely for Ukraine," defense secretary Grant Shapps told Times Radio on Tuesday.

U.S. State Department news:

In a Tuesday press briefing, State Department spokesman Vedant Patel reiterated the key talking points from Blinken’s speech.

“The Secretary is in Kyiv to reaffirm what President Biden has said, which is that we want Ukraine to win, and we’re committing – committed to helping Ukraine to do just that,” Patel said. “And with the support of the United States, our partners and allies, the Ukrainian people can and will achieve their vision for the future: a free, prosperous, and secure democracy, fully integrated into the Euro-Atlantic community and fully in control of its own destiny.”

Diplomacy Watch: A peace summit without Russia
Diplomacy Watch: Putin ups the ante with nuclear threats
Reporting | QiOSK
ukraine war
Diplomacy Watch: A peace summit without Russia
Diplomacy Watch: Moscow bails on limited ceasefire talks

Diplomacy Watch: Russia capitalizing on battlefield surge

QiOSK

Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to increase the size of Russia’s military even while it’s seeing regular successes on the battlefield. These developments are leading some in the Ukrainian military and civilians alike to become more open to the idea of talks aimed at ending the war.

The Kremlin is currently negotiating a new military budget proposal of upwards of $145 billion which would mean that, if signed into law, Russia’s 2025 defense spending would grow to 32.5% of the budget, a 4.2% increase from this year’s spending.

keep readingShow less
|
DF-ST-87-06962 The Pentagon, headquarters of the Department of Defense. DoD photo by Master Sgt. Ken Hammond, U.S. Air Force.|

The military showers universities with hundreds of millions of dollars

Military Industrial Complex

The divestment campaigns launched last spring by students protesting Israel’s mass slaughter in Gaza brought the issue of the militarization of American higher education back into the spotlight.

Of course, financial ties between the Pentagon and American universities are nothing new. As Stuart Leslie has pointed out in his seminal book on the topic, The Cold War and American Science, “In the decade following World War II, the Department of Defense (DOD) became the biggest patron of American science.” Admittedly, as civilian institutions like the National Institutes of Health grew larger, the Pentagon’s share of federal research and development did decline, but it still remained a source of billions of dollars in funding for university research.

keep readingShow less
Iran bombs Israel, but buck stops with Biden

Israel's Iron Dome anti-missile system intercepts rockets after Iran fired a salvo of ballistic missiles, as seen from Ashkelon, Israel, October 1, 2024 REUTERS/Amir Cohen TPX

Iran bombs Israel, but buck stops with Biden

Middle East

Today, Iran launched a massive missile attack against Israel, which Tehran billed as a response to Israel’s recent assassinations of leaders of the IRGC, Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel now appears to be mulling a retaliation in turn that could push the sides into all-out war.

When Israel and Iran narrowly avoided a full-blown conflict in April, I warned that we shouldn’t let Biden’s help in averting escalation overshadow his broader, strategic failure to prevent such a dangerous moment from ever arising. Had the U.S. used its considerable leverage with Israel to end its war in Gaza, the region would not have found itself on the edge of a disastrous war in April; six months later, the Middle East is back at the brink of disaster.

keep readingShow less

Election 2024

Latest

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.