AIPAC steps on a rake in New Jersey

Networks have yet to make a final call on the winner of the special election in New Jersey’s 11th House district, but the loser of Thursday’s race is already clear.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, better known as AIPAC, launched a $4 million campaign to discredit former Rep. Tom Malinowski, a moderate Democrat who has entertained the idea of placing conditions on aid to Israel. The group hoped that its investment in countering Malinowski would help elevate more staunchly pro-Israel candidates in the race. But the effort appears to have had the opposite effect, bolstering the campaign of left-wing candidate Analilia Mejia, who has called Israel’s military campaign in Gaza a genocide.

Now, with more than 91% of votes tallied, Malinowski and Mejia are nearly deadlocked with roughly 28% of votes each. AIPAC’s preferred candidate, former New Jersey Lieutenant Governor Tehana Way, is in a distant third, winning 17% of votes counted so far. The winner of the Democratic primary is widely expected to win the special election against Republican candidate Joe Hathaway.

The results point to AIPAC’s waning popularity among Democrats, who have increasingly come to view the lobbying group with skepticism because of its strong support for the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Malinowski, who accepted at least $378,000 from pro-Israel groups during his previous congressional campaigns, condemned AIPAC as a “dark-money” group seeking to ensure unconditional American support for Netanyahu.

“If these assholes get away with doing this to me, they will do it to every Democrat they want to target in the country in the midterms,” Malinowski told a crowd at a campaign stop in January.

Notably, AIPAC’s ads ignored questions related to Israel and instead focused on attacking Malinowski for his 2019 vote for a bill that funded the Department of Homeland Security and its immigration enforcement efforts. The approach appears to have turned some voters away from Malinowski, but may have pushed them toward supporting Mejia, who is a sharp critic of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

This approach is “a tell that AIPAC knows that their core issue, which is unconditional support for Israel, is toxic,” said Eli Clifton, a senior advisor at the Quincy Institute and expert on pro-Israel lobbying in the U.S. “Their core issue is one that either voters don't care about or that will drive them away from Democratic candidates.”

AIPAC’s scuffle with Malinowski could prove consequential. If the influential moderate wins the race, then he’ll return to Congress as a senior lawmaker with extensive foreign policy experience — and a chip on his shoulder. Malinowski could quickly earn a leadership position on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, where he would play a key role in shaping U.S. policy toward Israel.

If Mejia wins, then she is expected to join forces with the left flank of the Democratic Party, which came out strongly in support of her candidacy. While it is unclear whether she would gain a seat on a foreign policy-related committee, Mejia would likely provide a reliable voice of skepticism toward the U.S.-Israel relationship in Congress, alongside allies like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-N.Y.).

AIPAC’s apparent failure has already drawn criticism from pro-Israel voices in New Jersey, with one anonymous Jewish leader telling Jewish Insider that the lobbying group “played it wrong at every step,” fundraising for an unpopular candidate while making an enemy of a moderate Democrat.

Thursday’s election results have provided a boost to progressive candidates running against AIPAC-backed candidates in other Democratic primaries. Daniel Biss, who is a frontrunner in Illinois’ 9th district, slammed his opponent Laura Fine for her association with AIPAC. “New Jersey Democrats sent a clear message by rejecting AIPAC’s right-wing attempt to buy a congressional seat,” Biss said in a statement.