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Dedollarization is here, like it or not

A major driver is Washington’s weaponization of its currency via sanctions, covering 29 percent of the global economy. (Video)

Analysis | Africa
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Dedollarization appears to be an unstoppable trend as countries around the world look to reduce their dependence on U.S. currency.

Countries, particularly those in the Global South, are reducing their U.S. dollar reserves, settling cross border transactions in non-dollar currencies, and exploring the formation of new multilateral settlement mechanisms.

A major driver of this trend is Washington’s weaponization of the dollar via expansive sanctions that currently cover 29 percent of the global economy and 40 percent of global oil reserves.

Two recent Responsible Statecraft articles, one authored by International Crisis Group co-chair Frank Giustra and another by Quincy Institute Non-Resident Fellow Amir Handjani, began the process of explaining the drivers of this economic trend, as well as the geopolitical pitfalls facing the U.S. as much of the world reduces its dependence on the dollar, especially if the U.S. fails to engage other countries in the process of forming a multilateral monetary system.

In this video, Giustra and Handjani make the case for the U.S. acknowledging the trend of dedollarization and for Washington to address the national security dangers, as well as global economic and political instability, associated with this unmanaged decline of U.S. economic hegemony.


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Analysis | Africa
Will Democrats pop Trump's $50 billion trial balloon for war?
Top image credit: Sens. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) sit look on during a congressional hearing in January, 2025. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Sipa USA)

Will Democrats pop Trump's $50 billion trial balloon for war?

Washington Politics

On Wednesday, Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) told CNN that he would support new funding for the U.S. war with Iran — but only if Israel and Arab Gulf states help pay for it.

“We’re using our taxpayer money to protect those countries,” Gallego said. “We’re using our men to protect these countries. They need to throw in and have skin in the game too.”

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Top photo credit: Polymarket logo (Shutterstock/PJ McDonald) and Scene following an airstrike on an Iranian police centre damaging residential buildings around it in Niloofar square in central Tehran on march 1, 2026. (Hamid Vakili/Parspix/ABACAPRESS.COM)

Prediction markets are a national security threat

Latest

Hours before an Israeli attack in Tehran killed Ayatollah Khamenei, an account on the prediction market Polymarket made over half a million dollars wagering that Iran’s Supreme Leader would vacate office before 3/31. That account, named “Magamyman,” was not the only one to cash in on the attacks.

Half a dozen Polymarket accounts made over $1.2M betting that the U.S. “strikes Iran by February 28, 2026.” Those accounts were allegedly paid for through cryptocurrency wallets that had previously not been funded prior to Feb. 27. Overall, prediction market users bet over $255M on markets related to the attacks in Iran on the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket alone.

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Top photo credit: (Shutterstock/Triawanda Tirta Aditya)

Trump's ‘move fast and break things’ war slams into economy

Middle East

The launch of joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran could lead to economic and financial disruptions that ripple across the countries of the Global South with devastating effects. And while a quick end to the war could dampen these effects, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has acknowledged that the war could even last up to 8 weeks, and Israel is now reportedly expecting a "weeks-long" war with Iran.

The fundamental issue here seems to be an increasingly expansive vision of American — and particularly Israeli — war aims. These have now gone well beyond Iran’s offer of substantial denuclearization to regime change, and some quarters have even more extreme visions like the potential Balkanization of Iran into multiple statelets. Such mission creep on the part of the U.S. and Israel has in turn changed incentive structures in Iran towards an expansion of the conflict to target both the Gulf States and global oil markets, a dynamic that threatens to broaden the conflict and extend it, with profound impacts on the global economy.

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