Follow us on social

2023-02-03t093842z_1132062299_mt1eyeim255365_rtrmadp_3_image-of-suspected-chinese-spy-balloon-over-u-s

Washington inflates the China balloon threat

The meltdown in DC risks turning into a self-fulfilling prophecy: Routine inter-state relations becoming a full-blown crisis.

Asia-Pacific

UPDATE, FEB. 5: The U.S. military shot down the Chinese balloon floating over the continental U.S. on Saturday, which Washington confirmed was a surveillance balloon and not a civilian aircraft used for meteorological purposes, as claimed by the Chinese government.  A F-22 fighter plane shot down the balloon with an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile when it was over the coast of South Carolina for safety purposes. The Chinese foreign ministry responded Sunday morning by calling it a "clear overreaction and a serious violation of international practice.” 

This morning, Secretary of State Antony Blinken postponed a long-awaited trip to China in response to the sighting of an alleged Chinese surveillance balloon over American territory.


Despite Pentagon assurances that the balloon poses “no risk to commercial aviation, military assets or people on the ground,” members of Congress used the incident to hype fears about China. “It is a threat right here at home. It is a threat to American sovereignty, and it is a threat to the Midwest — in places like those that I live in," said House China Select Committee Chairman Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.).

“A big Chinese balloon in the sky and millions of Chinese TikTok balloons on our phones,” tweeted Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT). “Let’s shut them all down.”

Foreign surveillance of sensitive U.S. sites is not a new phenomenon. “It’s been a fact of life since the dawn of the nuclear age, and with the advent of satellite surveillance systems, it long ago became an everyday occurrence,” as my colleague and former CIA analyst George Beebe puts it. 

U.S. surveillance of foreign countries is likewise quite common. Indeed, great powers gathering intelligence on each other is one of the more banal and universal facts of international relations. Major countries even spy on their own allies, as when U.S. intelligence bugged the cellphone of German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

Typically, even when such surveillance is directed against the United States by a rival power, it does not threaten the safety of Americans and it poses manageable risks to sites where secrecy is of the utmost importance. However — in the context of rapidly increasing U.S.–China tensions — foreseeable incidents like these can quickly balloon into dangerous confrontations.

In such a situation, interested parties recast the banal and universal behaviors of all major states as a uniquely sinister characteristic of the antagonist alone. Commentators scream about the perfidy of the other, politicians call for confrontation, and these one-sided attacks are used to whip up popular nationalism.

Thus the meltdown in Washington over the Chinese balloon risks becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy: scaremongering over a manageable threat will speed the rush into destructive confrontation with China, turning what was once an everyday occurrence into a major danger.

One need look no further than the 2001 Hainan Island incident, in which a U.S. spy plane off the coast of China collided with a Chinese military jet, to imagine what is at stake today. That collision resulted in the loss of the Chinese pilot and the unauthorized emergency landing of the U.S. spy plane on Chinese territory. The crew was then taken into Chinese custody and held for 10 days until the diplomatic incident could be resolved with Washington delivering a letter expressing regret and sorrow.

As the Hainan incident demonstrated, the moments of highest tension are precisely those when diplomacy is most essential. Face-to-face discussion between U.S. and Chinese leaders is badly needed to ensure that these incidents are carefully managed and contained. Yet the toxic politics predominating in Washington seems to have convinced the Biden administration to further restrict communications with Beijing by calling off Blinken’s trip.

Bowing before the pressure of hawks in Washington who routinely inflate the threat China poses to America’s security will only embolden them to speed the cycle of rising hostility between Beijing and Washington. As more and more interests — from weapons contractors to monopolistic corporations to supporters of infrastructure investment — take advantage of great power animus to advance their agendas, the room for a more realistic relationship with China will close ever further. The United States will find itself trapped in an over-militarized approach toward the challenges posed by China’s rise, channeling the American people’s talent and resources into international conflict rather than tackling truly existential challenges like climate change, pandemic disease, and global growth and financial stability.

Letting war hawks set America’s agenda on China can only end in disaster. Conflict is not inevitable, but avoiding a disastrous U.S.–China military confrontation will require tough-minded diplomacy — not disengagement.


Eyewitness image taken by Chase Doak captures what is suspected to be a Chinese spy balloon on Wednesday February 1, 2023 as it was flying over the city of Billings, Montana. The balloon has been flying over the United States for a couple of days, U.S. officials said on Thursday, in what would be a brazen act just days ahead of a planned trip to Beijing by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Defence officials said they were confident the high-altitude surveillance balloon belonged to China. It was most recently seen above the western state of Montana. The military decided against shooting it down in case debris falls. China warned against speculation and "hype" until the facts are verified. A senior defence official speaking on condition of anonymity said the government prepared fighter jets, including F-22s, in case the White House ordered the object to be shot down. (Chase Doak via EYEPRESS)
Asia-Pacific
Kim Jong Un
Top photo credit: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the construction site of the Ragwon County Offshore Farm, North Korea July 13, 2025. KCNA via REUTERS

Kim Jong Un is nuking up and playing hard to get

Asia-Pacific

President Donald Trump’s second term has so far been a series of “shock and awe” campaigns both at home and abroad. But so far has left North Korea untouched even as it arms for the future.

The president dramatically broke with precedent during his first term, holding two summits as well as a brief meeting at the Demilitarized Zone with the North’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. Unfortunately, engagement crashed and burned in Hanoi. The DPRK then pulled back, essentially severing contact with both the U.S. and South Korea.

keep readingShow less
Why new CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper is as wrong as the old one
Top photo credit: U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Brad Cooper speaks to guests at the IISS Manama Dialogue in Manama, Bahrain, November 17, 2023. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed

Why new CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper is as wrong as the old one

Middle East

If accounts of President Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iranian nuclear facilities this past month are to be believed, the president’s initial impulse to stay out of the Israel-Iran conflict failed to survive the prodding of hawkish advisers, chiefly U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Michael Kurilla.

With Kurilla, an Iran hawk and staunch ally of both the Israeli government and erstwhile national security adviser Mike Waltz, set to leave office this summer, advocates of a more restrained foreign policy may understandably feel like they are out of the woods.

keep readingShow less
Putin Trump
Top photo credit: Vladimir Putin (Office of the President of the Russian Federation) and Donald Trump (US Southern Command photo)

How Trump's 50-day deadline threat against Putin will backfire

Europe

In the first six months of his second term, President Donald Trump has demonstrated his love for three things: deals, tariffs, and ultimatums.

He got to combine these passions during his Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday. Only moments after the two leaders announced a new plan to get military aid to Ukraine, Trump issued an ominous 50-day deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire. “We're going to be doing secondary tariffs if we don't have a deal within 50 days,” Trump told the assembled reporters.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.