Follow us on social

Shutterstock_1304174374-scaled

Russia's self-defeating move in pausing nuke talks with US

Moscow appears to be trying to pressure Washington on Ukraine but abandoning New START would carry wider security risks.

Analysis | Global Crises

Russia’s announcement on November 28 that it would postpone arms control talks with the United States was yet another signal that its current leadership is choosing a path detrimental to arms control, de-escalation, and peace.

Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, resumption of bilateral talks and subsequent negotiations for a follow-on to the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New START, remain a crucial avenue to maintain stability between the world’s two largest nuclear powers.

Earlier this month, the United States and Russia announced plans to once again meet under the auspices of New START’s Bilateral Consultative Commission (BCC), which last met in 2021. The treaty restricts the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons to 1,550 each and was extended last year until 2026. The announcement raised hopes that arms control conversations would not be poisoned by Russia’s invasion.

While initially indicating that new dates would soon be announced, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that these talks could not be removed from “geopolitical realities.” This argument appears to be a nod to Russia’s real reason for postponing the talks: Its war in Ukraine has gone disastrously wrong, and Moscow seeks to pressure the United States and its allies to decrease support for Ukraine by leveraging the West’s obvious interest in the health of a treaty critical to international security. This move is yet another indication of Russia’s growing desperation due to its military failures in Ukraine — a dangerous strategy destined to fail. 

To Zakharova’s point, a BCC meeting would take place within the context of certain geopolitical realities. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric around the potential use of nuclear weapons aims to exploit fears about potential escalation to further Russian war aims. Though the saber rattling has died down recently, the mere suggestion that Russia could use nuclear weapons highlights the importance of maintaining arms control dialogue between the United States and Russia, and with all nuclear-armed states.

Arms control agreements are not just about limits on arsenals and mutual verification. They also help maintain channels of contact between would-be adversaries and preserve opportunities for de-escalation. Most bilateral and multilateral agreements include fora for discussion among the signatories as well as mechanisms to ensure mutual compliance. Examples include the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty’s Review Conference, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty’s Special Verification Commission, and, of course, the BCC. 

Both the United States and Russia have benefited from these fora in the past. For example, at the time it was negotiated, the INF Treaty eliminated an entire class of nuclear weapons and its consultative mechanism allowed for questions about compliance to be discussed. When this was no longer effective, Russian violations led to the treaty's collapse.

In the context of the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine, both parties stand to benefit from the limits New START places on their respective nuclear forces and visibility into modernization efforts it enables through on-site inspections. Additionally, without New START, Russia may have the most to lose in a renewed arms race, considering a renewed arms build-up would likely involve the United States as well as China.

Russia’s recent military setbacks and loss of skilled workers due to the war hinder its ability to compete in a future arms race. Reporting suggests some 350,000 people have fled Russia following the mobilization order to bolster dwindling army ranks. Internal Russian reports suggest fears of sanctions negatively affecting long-term growth. According to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Russian economy may contract by 3.9 percent this year and 5.6 percent next year. While not catastrophic, this trend is worrisome in the long term and shows Russia’s weakened position as a world power. Russia’s flailing invasion of Ukraine and current position in the ongoing war continues to capture international attention, which Russia would undoubtedly like to deflect.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov blamed the postponement of the talks on U.S. officials’ unwillingness to take “Russian priorities” into account. Ryabkov further claimed the United States was only interested in restarting on-site inspections and unwilling to discuss specifics about the weapons count under New START. Unsurprisingly, this is a red herring from the Kremlin. On-site inspections, which have been paused since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, are not contingent on a BCC meeting and could be restarted without one. The issues cited by Ryabkov about weapons counts, however, would be among those normally covered at a BCC — thus, if weapons counts were Russia’s real issue, the Kremlin would want a BCC meeting.

As other voices have pointed out, the clock for New START is undeniably ticking. Given the state of Russia’s economy, its military losses, and international isolation, it would benefit Russian leadership to rethink its current approach to arms control and reinvest in New START, before the clock runs out. 


Image: rawf8 via shutterstock.com
Analysis | Global Crises
Alexander Vindman's new book is a folly: of history, and the truth
Top photo credit: Alexander Vindman (Philip Yabut/Shutterstock) and the cover of his new book (publisher, PublicAffairs)

Alexander Vindman's new book is a folly: of history, and the truth

Europe

Alexander Vindman’s recent book, “The Folly of Realism,”throws down the gauntlet, as the name suggests, at the “realists” he thinks were responsible for failing to deter Russia and seize opportunities for defense cooperation with Ukraine.

According to Vindman, the former National Security Council official who testified against President Trump during his impeachment trial in 2019, this “realist” behavior incentivized Moscow’s continued imperialist predations, culminating in the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

keep readingShow less
Trump should take the victory in Canada and move on
Top photo credit: Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney (Yan Parisien; bella1105 via shutterstock)

Trump should take the victory in Canada and move on

North America

Just days after replacing Justin Trudeau and becoming Canada’s 24th prime minister, Mark Carney has advised Governor General Mary Simon to dissolve Parliament. Canadians will now head to the polls on April 28 for a long awaited and highly anticipated federal election.

Trudeau had announced his intention to resign as prime minister and Liberal Party leader on January 6, having served more than nine years as Canada’s head of government. Opinion polling had shown an increasingly sizable lead for the rival Conservative Party over the preceding 18 months, with about 25 percentage points separating the two parties by the time Trudeau announced he was stepping down.

keep readingShow less
arrest free speech
Top photo credit: Spaxiax/Shutterstock

Does Vance’s free speech defense in Munich not apply here?

Global Crises

At the Munich Security Conference in mid-February, U.S. Vice President JD Vance warned Europe not to back away from one of the West’s most basic democratic values: free speech.

“In Washington there is a new sheriff in town," he said, "and under Donald Trump’s leadership, we may disagree with your views, but we will fight to defend your right to offer it in the public square, agree or disagree.”

keep readingShow less

Trump transition

Latest

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.