Follow us on social

Shutterstock_476034913-scaled

Turkey is about to invade Syria, and the US won’t do much to stop it

The war in Ukraine has forced Washington to recalibrate its priorities when it comes to its relationship with Ankara.

Reporting | Middle East

Two weeks ago, a massive explosion rocked a busy road in Istanbul, killing six people and wounding more than 80. Within hours, Turkish authorities blamed the deadly attack on the YPG, a Syrian Kurdish group that has worked closely with the United States in the fight against ISIS.

Turkey’s response has been emphatic. After accusing Washington of being complicit in the attack, Ankara has carried out a series of air raids against Kurdish military targets in Iraq and northern Syria, some of which are also occupied by American soldiers.

It looks like those strikes are just the beginning. Turkish leaders are now suggesting that a ground invasion is imminent, a move that would expand hostilities in northeastern Syria to a level not seen since the U.S., YPG, and their allies beat back the majority of ISIS forces in the region. And reports indicate that Washington has recently brought a number of soldiers across the border from Iraq into Syria, meaning that U.S. troops could be caught in the crossfire.

For American policymakers, this situation poses some serious problems. 

Washington’s support for the YPG has long been a thorn in the side of Ankara, which claims that the militia is affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). While the two NATO allies consider the PKK to be a terrorist organization, the U.S. maintains that the YPG is a separate group with its own interests.

This difference in views is at least partly a practical move by the United States, which has leaned heavily on the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces to push back ISIS. As National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby recently lamented, a Turkish offensive would “limit and constrain” the SDF’s anti-Islamic State operations. “And we want to be able to keep the pressure on ISIS,” Kirby added.

“The United States did not approve Turkey's recent strikes in Syria,” said a State Department spokesperson in a statement to Responsible Statecraft, adding that the U.S. “urges all parties to immediately de-escalate” the fighting. “We continue to oppose any military action that destabilizes the situation in Syria.”

Despite these strong words, the war in Ukraine has forced Washington to recalibrate its priorities, as Giorgio Cafiero of Gulf State Analytics told Responsible Statecraft. 

“The Biden administration sees Turkey as a very important ally vis-à-vis the conflict in Ukraine,” Cafiero said, noting Ankara’s key role in providing weapons to Kyiv and moderating talks between the warring parties. “The White House is not interested in aggravating Turkey right now.”

So Washington will likely avoid using its significant leverage over Ankara — including a pending deal that would enable Turkey to buy a fleet of 50 new F-16s — to try to prevent an offensive in Syria. Instead, U.S. leaders will continue to call on both Kurdish and Turkish fighters to deescalate.

In some ways, this marks an acceptance of a fait accompli. Turkish officials are the only ones who have concluded that the YPG was behind the Istanbul attack. (A State Department spokesperson said the U.S. “cannot confirm Turkey's claims that the PKK was responsible.”) But, to a certain extent, that doesn’t matter. Turkey has long viewed the Kurdish militant presence in Syria as a top national security threat, and leaders in Ankara had already been floating the idea of a new ground offensive in the months before the bombing. 

On top of all that, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan faces a difficult election next June, and failing to respond decisively to an attack in Turkey would be a significant liability for the already embattled president. As Turkey expert Sibel Oktay recently argued, “electoral defeat is a very likely outcome for Erdogan.”

“Turkey doesn’t take orders from others; we are a key actor in the region and the makers of our own foreign policy’ is a powerful and compelling message that attracts voters from every corner of Turkish society,” Oktay wrote.

The situation in northeast Syria is also vital to another hot-button electoral issue: Syrian refugees. As Turkey’s economic crisis continues to worsen, many voters have grown resentful toward the several million displaced Syrians that Ankara has welcomed since 2011. 

While the situation in much of Syria remains too dangerous for refugees to return, Erdogan has suggested the creation of a “safe corridor” in the country’s northeast where they could be repatriated. For Ankara, this means getting rid of the YPG presence in the region, which would give Turkish officials the added benefit of creating a buffer zone between Turkey and its Kurdish foes.

Meanwhile, Russia has also reportedly tried to dissuade Turkey from a full-scale offensive in Syria. After initially calling for a limited incursion, Moscow is now asking the YPG to hand over control of a buffer zone to the government in Damascus, which is led by Russia ally Bashar al-Assad. News reports indicate that YPG cadres are divided on whether to take the deal, with some still holding out hope that the United States will find a way to prevent a Turkish attack.

And the YPG isn’t alone in considering a shift in its policy toward Damascus. In a press conference last week, Erdogan said he would be open to meeting with Assad despite the fact that Turkey has helped lead the fight against the Syrian regime since 2011.


Turkish troops entering Syria in a 2016 offensive against both the Syrian Democratic Forces and ISIS. (Shutterstock/ kafeinkolik)
Reporting | Middle East
Trump and Keith Kellogg
Top photo credit: U.S. President Donald Trump and Keith Kellogg (now Trump's Ukraine envoy) in 2017. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Trump's silence on loss of Ukraine lithium territory speaks volumes

Europe

Last week, Russian military forces seized a valuable lithium field in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, the latest success of Moscow’s grinding summer offensive.

The lithium deposit in question is considered rather small by industry analysts, but is said to be a desirable prize nonetheless due to the concentration and high-quality of its ore. In other words, it is just the kind of asset that the Trump administration seemed eager to exploit when it signed its much heralded minerals agreement with Ukraine earlier this year.

keep readingShow less
Is the US now funding the bloodbath at Gaza aid centers?
Top photo credit: Palestinians walk to collect aid supplies from the U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, May 29, 2025. REUTERS/Hatem Khaled/File Photo

Is the US now funding the bloodbath at Gaza aid centers?

Middle East

Many human rights organizations say it should shut down. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have killed hundreds of Palestinians at or around its aid centers. And yet, the U.S. has committed no less than $30 million toward the controversial, Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).

As famine-like conditions grip Gaza, the GHF says it has given over 50 million meals to Palestinians at its four aid centers in central and southern Gaza Strip since late May. These centers are operated by armed U.S. private contractors, and secured by IDF forces present at or near them.

keep readingShow less
mali
Heads of state of Mali, Assimi Goita, Niger, General Abdourahamane Tiani and Burkina Faso, Captain Ibrahim Traore, pose for photographs during the first ordinary summit of heads of state and governments of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in Niamey, Niger July 6, 2024. REUTERS/Mahamadou Hamidou//File Photo

Post-coup juntas across the Sahel face serious crises

Africa

In Mali, General Assimi Goïta, who took power in a 2020 coup, now plans to remain in power through at least the end of this decade, as do his counterparts in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger. As long-ruling juntas consolidate power in national capitals, much of the Sahelian terrain remains out of government control.

Recent attacks on government security forces in Djibo (Burkina Faso), Timbuktu (Mali), and Eknewane (Niger) have all underscored the depth of the insecurity. The Sahelian governments face a powerful threat from jihadist forces in two organizations, Jama‘at Nusrat al-Islam wa-l-Muslimin (the Group for Supporting Islam and Muslims, JNIM, which is part of al-Qaida) and the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP). The Sahelian governments also face conventional rebel challengers and interact, sometimes in cooperation and sometimes in tension, with various vigilantes and community-based armed groups.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.