Follow us on social

Diplomacy Watch: Putin’s annexation plan will tank chances for near-term peace

Diplomacy Watch: Putin’s annexation plan will tank chances for near-term peace

Following sham referendums in eastern Ukraine, Russia is poised to ruin the possibility of ending his war in the short term.

Analysis | Europe

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly plans to annex nearly 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory today following referendums that have been widely criticized as shams in four largely Russian-held oblasts. If he follows through, the move will all but destroy chances of a near-term diplomatic settlement to the conflict.

As Eugene Chausovsky of the Newlines Institute recently noted, the war has been at something of a crossroads in recent weeks, giving each side the option to pursue escalation or shift gears and give negotiations a chance. It looks like Putin is all-in on escalation.

The news of likely annexation comes alongside reports that Western officials are also preparing for a long-term conflict. Following a meeting in Brussels, NATO leaders committed to ramp up production of weapons in order to arm Ukraine for years to come.

In other words, Ukraine is most likely headed for a protracted, years-long war.

As months turn into years, casualties will continue to rise, and the risk of escalation to a cataclysmic nuclear war between Russia and the United States will remain uncomfortably high. If recent news is any indication, that sword of Damocles will hang over our heads for a long time to come.

In other diplomatic news related to the war in Ukraine:

— Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned Russia’s referendums in a Wednesday call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, according to Kyiv’s readout of the conversation. Erdogan spoke with Putin the next day, urging him to extend the grain exports deal and seek a settlement to the conflict. The pair of calls come a week after Erdogan claimed Putin is ready to end the war “as soon as possible.”

— On Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told 60 Minutes that there have been no peace talks because Russia “has not demonstrated any willingness” to start “meaningful” negotiations. “If and when that changes, we will do everything we can to support a diplomatic process,” Blinken added.

— American diplomats are putting pressure on Russia’s “regional friends and foes” to dissuade Putin from using nuclear weapons, according to a “senior State Department official” who spoke with Politico. The official didn’t specify which countries the United States is pressuring, but China and India are the most likely targets given their close ties to the Kremlin.

U.S. State Department News:

State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Wednesday that the United States will not discourage Ukraine from using American weapons to attack territories that Russia has annexed, including Crimea, despite Russian threats to use nukes in response to attacks on its perceived territorial integrity. “The targets they select are the targets they select,” Price said, arguing that all decisions on Ukrainian military strategy should be left to Kyiv.


Analysis | Europe
Kim Jong Un
Top photo credit: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visits the construction site of the Ragwon County Offshore Farm, North Korea July 13, 2025. KCNA via REUTERS

Kim Jong Un is nuking up and playing hard to get

Asia-Pacific

President Donald Trump’s second term has so far been a series of “shock and awe” campaigns both at home and abroad. But so far has left North Korea untouched even as it arms for the future.

The president dramatically broke with precedent during his first term, holding two summits as well as a brief meeting at the Demilitarized Zone with the North’s Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un. Unfortunately, engagement crashed and burned in Hanoi. The DPRK then pulled back, essentially severing contact with both the U.S. and South Korea.

keep readingShow less
Why new CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper is as wrong as the old one
Top photo credit: U.S. Navy Vice Admiral Brad Cooper speaks to guests at the IISS Manama Dialogue in Manama, Bahrain, November 17, 2023. REUTERS/Hamad I Mohammed

Why new CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper is as wrong as the old one

Middle East

If accounts of President Donald Trump’s decision to strike Iranian nuclear facilities this past month are to be believed, the president’s initial impulse to stay out of the Israel-Iran conflict failed to survive the prodding of hawkish advisers, chiefly U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Michael Kurilla.

With Kurilla, an Iran hawk and staunch ally of both the Israeli government and erstwhile national security adviser Mike Waltz, set to leave office this summer, advocates of a more restrained foreign policy may understandably feel like they are out of the woods.

keep readingShow less
Putin Trump
Top photo credit: Vladimir Putin (Office of the President of the Russian Federation) and Donald Trump (US Southern Command photo)

How Trump's 50-day deadline threat against Putin will backfire

Europe

In the first six months of his second term, President Donald Trump has demonstrated his love for three things: deals, tariffs, and ultimatums.

He got to combine these passions during his Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday. Only moments after the two leaders announced a new plan to get military aid to Ukraine, Trump issued an ominous 50-day deadline for Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire. “We're going to be doing secondary tariffs if we don't have a deal within 50 days,” Trump told the assembled reporters.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.