Follow us on social

Diplomacy Watch: Can nuclear risk push Russia and the US toward talks?

Diplomacy Watch: Can nuclear risk push Russia and the US toward talks?

The world faces “a time of nuclear danger not seen since the height of the Cold War,” according to the UN.

Europe

Earlier this week, United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned that the world is “at a time of nuclear danger not seen since the height of the Cold War.” 

“Almost 13,000 nuclear weapons are now being held in arsenals around the world,” Guterres added. “All this at a time when the risks of proliferation are growing and guardrails to prevent escalation are weakening, and when crises with nuclear undertones are festering from the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.”

The remarks, which came during a UN conference on the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, are a stark reminder of the existential threat posed by nuclear bombs — a threat made significantly worse by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has set back arms control efforts and increased the odds of a catastrophic nuclear exchange.

Realizing the danger of the situation, officials in Washington and Moscow have worked to manage this risk in recent months. According to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the U.S. has sought to keep a lid on nuclear tensions by scrapping a series of planned ICBM tests and “not raising the alert status of our nuclear forces in response to Russian saber-rattling.”

Even Russian President Vladimir Putin, who initially warned that Western interference in the war would lead to “consequences you have never seen,” has ditched threats in favor of the famous dictum that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought.”

In an ideal world, this rare point of agreement between the U.S. and Russia would have two major outcomes. First, it would push both sides to return to the nuclear negotiation table, backing up their stated commitment to replacing the New START Treaty before it expires in 2026. Second, it would encourage officials in each country to take real steps toward negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine, which carries as high a risk of nuclear escalation as any conflict today.

Of course, we don’t live in an ideal world. Instead, we’re stuck in one where Moscow and Washington blame each other for, well, just about everything that’s wrong in the world. But one thing is clear: There are few better ways to reduce the risk of nuclear annihilation than working to put a rapid end to the war in Ukraine. Officials on both sides would be wise to avoid taking that fact lightly.

In other diplomatic news related to the war in Ukraine:

- On Wednesday, a ship carrying grain from Ukraine passed inspection in Istanbul on its way to Lebanon, according to Al Jazeera. The vessel, which is the first to leave Ukraine’s Black Sea ports since the February invasion, could soon be followed by 17 other ships that are currently awaiting the signal to leave Ukraine. The UN-sponsored deal to restart grain shipments could serve as a starting point for ceasefire negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, according to former German Chancellor (and close friend of Putin) Gerhard Schroeder. “The good news is that the Kremlin wants a negotiated solution,” Schroeder, who met with Putin last week, said. 

- The Kremlin may reject a U.S. proposal to swap convicted arms dealer Viktor Bout for two prominent Americans imprisoned in Russia, according to Bloomberg. “[P]eople familiar with the Kremlin’s thinking” told the outlet that Moscow could seek to sweeten their end of the bargain by asking for two Russian prisoners in exchange for basketball star Britney Griner and former Marine Paul Whelan, both of whom Washington considers political hostages. (Griner was sentenced Thursday to nine years in prison for possession of cannabis oil.) Bout’s lawyer had a more optimistic take on Russia’s current thinking, tellingCNN that he’s “confident this is going to get done.”

U.S. State Department news:

No press briefing was held this week.


Europe
Bernie Sanders Chris Van Hollen
Top image credit: U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) speaks during a press conference regarding legislation that would block offensive U.S. weapons sales to Israel, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., November 19, 2024. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
Will Senate vote signal a wider shift away from Israel?

Can Bernie stop billions in new US weapons going to Israel?

Middle East

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz have been roundly criticized for the security lapse that put journalist Jeffrey Goldberg into a Signal chat where administration officials discussed bombing Houthi forces in Yemen, to the point where some, like Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) have called for their resignations.

But the focus on the process ignores the content of the conversation, and the far greater crime of continuing to provide weapons that are inflaming conflicts in the Middle East and enabling Israel’s war on Gaza, which has resulted in the deaths of over 50,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians.

keep readingShow less
Friedrich Merz
Top photo credit: German Prime Minister-in-waiting Friedrich Merz (Shutterstock.Penofoto)

German leaders miscalculated popular will for war spending

Europe

Recent polls show the center right Christian Democrats (CDU-CSU) headed by prospective chancellor Friedrich Merz losing ground against the populist right Alternative for Germany (AfD), even before the new government has been formed.

The obvious explanation is widespread popular dissatisfaction with last month’s vote pressed through the outgoing parliament by the CDU-CSU and presumptive coalition partner the SPD (with the Greens) to allow unlimited increases in defense spending. This entailed disabling the constitutional “debt brake” introduced in 2009 to curb deficits and public debt.

keep readingShow less
Is US bombing Somalia just because it can?
Top Image Credit: The aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), foreground, leads a formation of Carrier Strike Group Five ships as Air Force B-52 Stratofortress aircraft and Navy F/A-18 Hornet aircraft pass overhead for a photo exercise during Valiant Shield 2018 in the Philippine Sea Sept. 17, 2018. The biennial, U.S. only, field-training exercise focuses on integration of joint training among the U.S. Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps. This is the seventh exercise in the Valiant Shield series that began in 2006. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Erwin Miciano)

Is US bombing Somalia just because it can?

QiOSK

U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) conducted an airstrike in Somalia against ISIS targets on Saturday, killing “multiple ISIS-Somalia operatives.” It was the eighth such strike in the short time that Trump has been in office, reflecting a quiet, but deadly American campaign in a part, of the world that remains far below the public radar.

“AFRICOM, alongside the Federal Government of Somalia and Somali Armed Forces, continues to take action to degrade ISIS-Somalia's ability to plan and conduct attacks that threaten the U.S. homeland, our forces, and our civilians abroad,” a Sunday AFRICOM press release stated.

keep readingShow less

Trump transition

Latest

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.