On the eve of a new round of negotiations between the world’s powers and Iran to restore the 2015 nuclear deal, the vast majority of voters believe that the United States should use diplomacy — and not military force — to stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, according to a recent poll from Data For Progress.
In a survey of 1,330 likely voters, 78 percent of respondents said Washington must use its best diplomatic tools to “put an immediate end to Iran’s nuclear weapons program,” while only 12 percent agreed with the statement that the United States “must go to war with Iran in order to slow down its nuclear weapons development.” (It should be noted that despite the poll’s wording, the U.S. intelligence community and the International Atomic Energy Agency have not at this time made an assessment that Iran is embarking on a nuclear weapons program.)
The poll shows a range of potentially strong messages for those who advocate a return to the Iran nuclear deal. It also indicates that, even after two years of President Joe Biden dragging his feet on a return to the accord, Americans have little appetite for alternative approaches to resolving the issue.
In a second framing of the question, 74 percent of likely voters polled said they supported a deal that would use international monitoring to stop Iran’s nuclear program from progressing. On the other side, eight percent favored military action that would set the program back “by years,” and five percent supported the current path, even if it would allow Iran to develop a weapon in the next year.
Notably, the survey showed that a slim majority (56 percent) of Republicans would support a “new agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program,” even if that accord was based on the original deal.
If Iran does manage to develop a nuclear weapon, respondents said overwhelmingly that they would primarily blame either Biden or former President Donald Trump. Responses fell along partisan lines, with 62 percent of Democrats blaming Trump and 61 percent of Republicans putting the responsibility on Biden’s shoulders.
Connor Echols is a reporter for Responsible Statecraft. He was previously an associate editor at the Nonzero Foundation, where he co-wrote a weekly foreign policy newsletter. Echols received his bachelor’s degree from Northwestern University, where he studied journalism and Middle East and North African Studies.
FILE PHOTO: Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Bob Menendez (D-NJ) hold a news conference on the death of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi and the humanitarian crisis in Yemen on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., December 12, 2018. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
The Army and Navy ships that have left the U.S. for a massive humanitarian aid project in Gaza are still making their way across the Atlantic, with two still at ports in Florida and Virginia. It will likely take until mid-April for the vessels to reach Gaza and begin building a temporary causeway to facilitate the entry of life-saving aid into the strip.
Looking at real-time satellite imagery tracking military vessels, it looks like the USAV Gen. Frank Besson Jr., an Army support vessel that left Fort Eustis, Virginia, on March 10, has been moored and presumably refueling at a port in the Azores, Portugal, since Friday. It is at the half-way point between the U.S. and its final destination of Cyprus (nearly 5,000 nautical miles total). At an average speed of 10 knots, its journey will take nearly two more weeks, depending on weather conditions, once it gets going again.
The rest of the vessels are behind and, as of Tuesday, halfway across the Atlantic, though they can travel at slightly higher speeds than the Besson. They include the Army support vessels Loux, Matamoros, Monterrey and Wilson Wharf, which are all traveling together and were between Bermuda and the Azores Tuesday morning.
They all left U.S. ports around March 15. They are carrying modules and equipment to build the “trident” causeway — about 800 by 1200 feet — which will be anchored at the beach in Gaza to unload humanitarian aid.
The USNV Roy Benavidez, which, once in place, will help construct the floating pier and serve as a “roll on, roll off” facility two miles off the coast of Gaza, is the fastest of all the military vessels and is now ahead of the smaller Army landing craft on their way to the Azores, even though it left Newport News, Va., on March 21. When complete, aid will be ferried from Cyprus to the floating pier and then to the causeway at Gaza.
Meanwhile, two other Navy vessels that will be assisting with the floating pier, the USNSs Lopez and Bobo, are readying and still docked in Navy ports at Jacksonville and Norfolk respectively. Once on their way these particular vessels will take at least two weeks to reach Cyprus, depending on the weather and refueling at the Azores.
All told these vessels (carrying about 500 U.S. military personnel) won’t be realistically building anything until mid-April, which appears to be in line with a May completion date for the pier and the causeway. Considering that, according to experts, Gazans will be fully in the throes of famine by then, it is still hard to contemplate why the Biden administration has backed the massive JLOTS project instead of ratcheting up pressure on Israel to let in the thousands of trucks of aid that are stopped at borders and checkpoints.
The Pentagon has not returned calls regarding whether the military has hired contractor Fogbow to engage in the logistics on the beach, as the Biden administration insists there will be no boots on the ground. The Times of Israel reported a day ago that Fogbow, which is led by recently retired U.S. Special Forces, Marines and intelligence officers, has already been hired for the job and that the Israel Defense Forces will likely handle security at the aid staging areas. This, too, has yet to be confirmed.
Some are already questioning whether the U.S. military operation will be used to assist a massive refugee camp at the beach once the fighting begins in Rafah. Israel insists the millions of people now sheltering in the city will have to evacuate. The Pentagon has not yet said where the causeway and operations will take place. Stay tuned.
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210505-N-KZ419-1186 NAVAL SUPPORT ACTIVITY BAHRAIN (May 5, 2021) Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander of U.S. Central Command, center, and Vice Adm. Brad Cooper, incoming commander U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), U.S. 5th Fleet and Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) listens to remarks during a change of command ceremony onboard Naval Support Activity Bahrain, May 5. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Dawson Roth)
Despite serious concerns about possible Israeli war crimes and even “plausible” allegations of genocidal acts in its war in the Gaza Strip, the former chief of U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM, has accepted a fellowship from one of Washington’s most hawkish pro-Israel organizations.
The Jewish Institute for National Security of America, or JINSA, announced last week that Gen. Frank McKenzie, who led CENTCOM from 2019 to April 2022, would become the Hertog Distinguished Fellow at JINSA’s Gemunder Center for Defense and Strategy.
“We are thrilled and honored to have Gen [sic] McKenzie join JINSA,” said Michael Makovsky, the group’s president and CEO. “As a former CENTCOM commander and J-5, he will be an invaluable source and contributor to JINSA’s work on U.S. strategic challenges and opportunities in the Mideast, and how to bolster the U.S.-Israel security relationship.”
JINSA’s press release also highlighted McKenzie’s oversight as CENTCOM commander of the “killing of Iran’s Quds Force commander General Qassem Soleimani” in January 2020.
Aside from promoting pro-Israel policy positions, JINSA’s main work has consisted of conducting educational programs and exchanges between U.S. and Israeli military officers since its founding nearly 50 years ago. “JINSA believes that Israel is the most capable and critical U.S. security partner in the 21st century and that a strong America is the best guarantor of Western civilization,” according to its current mission statement.
During the current Gaza war, JINSA has produced a steady stream of webinars featuring, among others, senior Israeli retired military officers, and near-daily email updates on “Operation Swords of Iron,” virtually all of which echo the Israeli government’s version of its campaign. JINSA also defend Israel against growing charges by international human rights groups and U.N. experts that its armed forces are guilty of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide evidence for which was deemed “plausible” in January by the International Court of Justice.
McKenzie is the first former CENTCOM commander to associate himself formally with JINSA, although the group’s roster of “experts,” includes several other former regional commanders, including Adm. James Stavridis who served as commanders of both SOUTHCOM and EUCOM, and the former AFRICOM commander, Gen. David Rodriguez. Among other experts are former deputy EUCOM commander Air Force Gen. Charles “Chuck” Wald, who has published a number of op-eds in prominent newspapers over the past dozen years urging U.S. air strikes against Iran’s nuclear program.
Aside from retired senior military officers, JINSA’s experts feature well-known neoconservatives, a number of whom served in various capacities in the George W. Bush administration and played important roles in promoting the 2003 Iraq invasion and subsequent occupation. They include Elliott Abrams, who oversaw U.S. policy in the Middle East on the National Security Council, I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, who served as former Vice President Dick Cheney’s national security adviser until his indictment for perjury, John Hannah, who succeeded Libby in Cheney’s office, Eric Edelman, who served as Cheney’s deputy national security adviser and then as under secretary of defense policy under then-Pentagon chief Donald Rumsfeld, and Robert Joseph, undersecretary of state for arms control and international security.
Makovsky, JINSA’s director, moved to Israel as a young man and subsequently worked on Iraq in the Pentagon under Rumsfeld before becoming foreign policy director at the Bipartisan Policy Center where he headed a task force that produced a series of extraordinarily hawkish reports on Iran beginning in 2008. He moved most of the BPC task force staff and advisers to JINSA when he took it over in 2013.
For JINSA, McKenzie’s acceptance of a fellowship amounts to a real catch, given his recent service as chief of CENTCOM, whose domain stretches from Egypt to Pakistan and Central Asia. Under his command, Israel, which had come under EUCOM’s jurisdiction for decades (due to the hostility of most of the region’s Arab states), was integrated into CENTCOM — a major priority for both Israel and JINSA and one made possible by the 2020 Abraham Accords under which the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain normalized relations with Israel. As one JINSA report put it, Israel’s inclusion “will enable strategic and operational coordination among the United States, Israel and our Arab partners throughout the region against Iran and other serious shared threats.”
As noted in Makovsky’s announcement, McKenzie also oversaw the assassination of Soleimani, a particularly effective organizer and coordinator of Shi’a militias in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, in an operation reportedly aided by Israeli intelligence. And, of course, McKenzie’s direct work with the IDF and the military brass of “our Arab partners,” authoritarian regimes of the kind long favored by Israel, can only serve to enhance JINSA’s work and that of its Israeli Distinguished Fellows, such as Major Gen. Amikam Norkin, a former commander of the Israeli Air Force and member of the IDF General Staff, and Major Gen. (ret.) Yaakov Amidror, a 36-year IDF veteran who also served as Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu’s national security adviser and who is regularly featured on JINSA’s webinars as a commentator on the IDF’s Gaza war.
While McKenzie was always careful not to publicly question or contradict U.S. policy while CENTCOM commander, he has been more vocal during retirement. Between the outset of Israel’s Gaza war and early February, he was particularly critical of what he described as the Biden administration’s “mush” response to attacks on U.S. outposts by pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq and by Houthi rebels in Yemen on shipping in the Red Sea. Recalling what he characterized as Iran’s “back[ing] down” after Soleimani’s assassination — others would question that characterization — McKenzie argued in the ultra-hawkish opinion pages of the Wall Street Journal that “[t]o reset deterrence, we must apply violence that Tehran understands. …Iranians understand steel.”
While that no doubt sounds like music to the ears of JINSA’s neoconservative funders and experts, McKenzie has also sung somewhat more dissonant notes. On CBS News’ “Face the Nation” last month, he clarified that he was “not advocating for striking Iran,” but rather not to entirely rule that out that possibility. Even more discordant with JINSA’s approach to the Gaza war, he implicitly criticized Israel’s ongoing campaign — not, notably because of the appalling civilian toll and destruction it has created — but rather for its leaders’ failure to conceive a “vision of an end-state when you begin a military campaign.”
“And I would argue that needs to be something like a two-state solution. You’re going to need help from the Arab nations in the region to go in there and …do something in Gaza. I think Israeli occupation would be the least desirable of all outcomes,” he said.
Conversely, JINSA and Abrams’ similarly hawkish Vandenberg Coalition have been hyping their recent joint plan for an “end-state.” While they agreed that Arab states, notably Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, should indeed oversee (and fund) Gaza’s relief, reconstruction, and “deradicalization,” security, in their opinion, should be provided by “capable national forces from outside the Middle East and/or private security contractors” in close coordination with Israel which, however, would retain its “freedom of military action throughout the Strip.” Or occupation by another name.
As for a two-state solution, the report agrees that endorsement of a “long-term political horizon for two states” should be recognized by all concerned. But “rushing ahead with glossy and cosmetic quick fixes, high-level diplomatic gambits, elections, and reunification of the West Bank and Gaza will almost certainly backfire across the board,” according to the report, which envisions “an arduous and lengthy process” even before “a revived peace process.”
Meanwhile, whatever “coalition of the willing” that can be cobbled together to oversee Gaza should focus even more importantly on “strengthening shared U.S.-Israel-Arab interests in resisting Iran-led hegemony,” according to the report, an approach that clearly plays to McKenzie’s CENTCOM strengths.
The State Department said on Monday that it has found no evidence that Israel is violating a recent directive that recipients of U.S. military aid comply with international human rights law.
In February, partly due to pressure over support for Israel’s war on Gaza, the Biden administration issued a national security memo that required any country receiving military aid from Washington while participating in an active armed conflict, to issue “credible and reliable written assurances” that they will use weapons funded by the U.S. in accordance with international law, and that they “the recipient country will facilitate and not arbitrarily deny, restrict, or otherwise impede, directly or indirectly, the transport or delivery of United States humanitarian assistance and United States Government-supported international efforts to provide humanitarian assistance.”
Sunday was the deadline for Israel, along with the six other countries deemed to meet the criteria — Colombia, Iraq, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia and Ukraine — to issue these assurances.
“For these seven countries (...) we have received written assurances that are required in the memo,” State Department spokesman Matt Miller said during a press briefing on Monday. “In each case, these assurances were made by a credible, high-level official in the partner government who has the ability and authority to make decisions and commitments about the issues at the heart of the assurances.”
“We've had ongoing assessments of Israel's compliance with international humanitarian law,” Miller added. “We have not found them to be in violation, either when it comes to the conduct of the war or the provision of humanitarian assistance. We view those assurances through that ongoing work we have done.”
The announcement came shortly after the U.S. abstained from a resolution that demands an immediate ceasefire in Gaza — the first sign of public disagreement between Washington and Tel Aviv.
The Biden administration will now have 90 days to provide Congress with a report on whether the Israeli government has abided by its assurances.
This determination by the administration comes despite recent opposition from progressives in Congress to rule that the Israeli government’s assurances were credible.
“The current circumstances on the ground in Gaza, the many statements made by the President and other senior Administration officials, and the recent IPC assessment that:‘famine is imminent' – make it abundantly clear that Netanyahu’s government is not doing nearly enough to allow aid to reach starving and otherwise desperate people in Gaza,” 17 senators wrote the White House on March 22. “As a result, we believe it would be inconsistent with the letter and spirit of NSM-20 to find that assurances made by the Netanyahu Government meet the required ‘credible and reliable’ standard at this time. Such a determination would also establish an unacceptable precedent for the application of NSM-20 in other situations around the world.”
The letter’s signatories included Sens. Chris van Hollen (D-Md.), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and Chris Murphy (D-Conn.)
Six House Democrats made a similar case in a letter sent on March 23. “[T]he Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has restricted the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza by placing onerous burdens on the oversight of aid, severely limiting entry points for aid delivery, and arbitrarily preventing food, medicine, and other supplies from entering Gaza,” wrote Reps. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.), Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), and Chellie Pingree (D-Maine).
“Given the catastrophic and devolving humanitarian situation in Gaza, we urge you to enforce the Humanitarian Aid Corridor Act (Section 620I of the Foreign Assistance Act) and, as required by that law, make clear to the Israeli government that so long as Israel continues to restrict the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza, the continued provision of U.S. security assistance to Israel would constitute a violation of existing U.S. law and must be restricted.”
The determinations match with assessments made with leading humanitarian organizations and human rights groups.
Miller maintained that the current assessment was part of an ongoing process that “requires a fact-intensive analysis of relevant factors related to international humanitarian law,” but that “as of yet, we have not made a conclusion that Israel is in violation of international humanitarian law."
Reports last week suggested that officials at the State Department and USAID had expressed “deep skepticism” over ambassador to Israel Jack Lew’s assertion that Israel’s claims of compliance with international law were credible.