Follow us on social

2022-08-01t231106z_2002231278_rc2lhz5tvb28_rtrmadp_3_afghanistan-conflict-usa-zawahiri

Al-Zawahiri killing shows 'over-the-horizon' counterterrorism can work

Despite what critics said during the Afghanistan withdrawal, the US didn't need boots on the ground to take a top terrorist off the board.

Analysis | Asia-Pacific

Tonight’s announcement that al-Qaeda terrorist Ayman al-Zawahiri was killed over the weekend is the product of years of effort and Americans who paid the ultimate sacrifice. But it is also important to recognize just how wrong the conventional groupthink was about the limits of post-withdrawal counterterrorism.

It cannot be exaggerated how improbable conventional critics of President Biden’s decision to withdraw from Afghanistan insisted today's success would be. The prevailing critique of an over-the-horizon strategy was that it would be nearly impossible to conduct effective counterterrorism strikes without continuing a 20-year failed counterinsurgency. Arguing otherwise became a lonely position in Washington. 

The Biden administration first pitched “over-the-horizon” strike capabilities as a way that the United States could manage counterterrorism after the withdrawal by conducting air and drone strikes from bases outside Afghanistan. It was largely received with sneers and criticism. Much of the criticism is valid from a technical standpoint. An over-the-horizon posture is complicated by less human intelligence, extended flight distances for drones and manned aircraft, and numerous other logistical and intelligence limitations. But it is a more sustainable form of risk management that necessarily diverts from the futile task of risk elimination that dominated the U.S. approach to counterterrorism in Afghanistan over the last twenty years. Furthermore, many of the deficiencies of an over-the-horizon strategy were still a reality even with tens of thousands of U.S. troops in-country, albeit at a significantly higher cost.

This weekend’s strike on Ayman al-Zawahiri represents over-the-horizon at its best: eliminating a high value target based on actionable intelligence, likely with pre-approval by the Commander-in-Chief, and potentially with regional support. This should not be conflated with the unhinged permissiveness of past drone wars which saw thousands of civilians killed based on dubious intelligence or none at all. One under-appreciated benefit of the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan is that it has forced the U.S. military and intelligence community to truly prioritize threats.


FILE PHOTO: Osama bin Laden sits with his adviser Ayman al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian linked to the al Qaeda network, during an interview with Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir (not pictured) in an image supplied by Dawn newspaper November 10, 2001. Hamid Mir/Editor/Ausaf Newspaper for Daily Dawn/Handout via REUTERS/
Analysis | Asia-Pacific
POGO The Bunker
Top image credit: Project on Government Oversight

Top admiral resigns amid Venezuela ops: Who’s got the scoop?

Washington Politics

The Bunker appears originally at the Project on Government Oversight and is republished here with permission.

keep readingShow less
Ken Vogel Devils' Advocates
Top photo credit: deskjacket for "Devil's Advocates/William Morrow and stock photo (Shutterstock/Lightfield Studios

The Cowboy lobbyist who claimed he fixed an election

Media

“Did I help fix an election? Yes.”

Or so claims foreign lobbyist Robert Stryk in “Devils’ Advocates: The Hidden Story of Rudy Giuliani, Hunter Biden, and the Washington Insiders on the Payrolls of Corrupt Foreign Interests,” a new book by New York Times reporter Kenneth Vogel about the inner workings of American lobbyists working for foreign governments.

keep readingShow less
 Badr Abdelatty, Abbas Araghchi, Rafael Grossi
Top image credit: Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty meets with Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Grossi in Cairo, Egypt, September 9, 2025. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany

Can Egypt really stop Israel from attacking Iran again?

Middle East

The telephone lines out of Cairo have been humming. In a series of carefully choreographed calls, Badr Abdelatty, Egypt’s foreign minister, has been shuttling between his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, America’s Middle East Envoy, Steve Witkoff, and the head of the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, all in a bid to pull Iran, America, and Israel back from the brink.

Just months ago, Cairo’s influence was at a low-point, overshadowed by the oil-fuelled wealth of the Gulf states. While President Donald Trump was brokering mega-deals in the gilded boardrooms of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, America's ties with its old ally Egypt had become decidedly awkward. The relationship grew so strained that President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi pointedly declined an invitation to the White House. The sticking point was Trump's audacious plan to permanently resettle Gaza’s more than 2 million Palestinians, turning the war-ravaged strip into a "Riviera of the Middle East."

But on the back of a torturous, yet ultimately successful, mediation that produced a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, Egypt has arguably re-emerged as the region’s essential interlocutor. Having co-hosted the Sharm el-Sheikh peace summit with Trump and being tapped to lead a planned global stabilization force in Gaza, Sisi is enjoying a diplomatic comeback. Even Israel's opposition leader, Yair Lapid, now sees Cairo as the linchpin, stating, “What Gaza needs is Egyptian control.”

Now, Cairo is attempting a far more audacious feat: bridging the chasm between Washington, its Israeli ally, and Tehran. The task is gargantuan. The 12-day war in June, which saw American and Israeli bombers strike Iranian nuclear and military sites, left diplomacy in tatters. This has not stopped Trump, fresh from his Gaza triumph, from casting his eye towards a bigger prize. In a speech to the Israeli Knesset, he mused, "you know what would be great? if we made a peace deal with them [Iran]... Wouldn’t it be nice?"

This deal-making optimism is radiating from the White House. "Doing a peace deal is becoming infectious," enthused Witkoff, in a recent interview. He hinted at a broader diplomatic offensive, adding, "we're getting calls from the Iranians. We're there to, you know, hopefully have a long-term diplomatic solution with Iran."

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.