Amid fears of nuclear escalation stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Mike Pompeo tweeted today: 

It is my view that the U.S. government should immediately take necessary, and long-overdue, steps to do the right and obvious thing, that is to offer the Republic of China (Taiwan) America’s diplomatic recognition as a free and sovereign country.

It is remarkable that this statement came from a former Secretary of State, given its basic ignorance of geopolitics. The ultimate reality that Pompeo blithely dismisses in favor of a politically-useful, grandstanding statement, is that formally recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign, independent nation will — in the view of countless experts who know this issue inside and out — put us on a solid path to conflict with the People’s Republic of China. And that will fundamentally threaten Taiwan, as well as raising the prospect of nuclear war.  

For what is Pompeo willing to take this risk? For his political ambitions. His reckless, irresponsible and thoughtless words will put greater pressure on other Republicans to come out in favor of recognizing Taiwan, in an effort to paint Biden as a China appeaser. 

Such pressure will grow even more due to the Ukraine crisis, which is causing some to stupidly assert that the U.S. needs to drop its “One China” policy and put Taiwan in the U.S. defense perimeter. 

For now, Biden will likely resist such nonsense. But what if he loses the Senate in the upcoming midterms, and is under huge pressure going into his re-election campaign, and China is still publicly opposing sanctions on Putin?  

He could take steps short of recognition that are nonetheless sufficient to cross a serious PRC red line. Then we would have two major crises, courtesy of mindless Republican posturing. 

Even if we avoid a Taiwan crisis under Biden, the danger of this reckless grandstanding will loom. Should Pompeo, or another like him, prevail in the 2024 presidential election, these mad plans could actually come into effect — and the results will be disastrous.