Follow us on social

Shutterstock_1702004938

Do we really want another Cold War?

We must ensure Russia's punishment is appropriate but avoids long-term damage — or we're doomed to reliving the past.

Analysis | Europe

In the wake of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, it is tempting to want to go beyond the very severe sanctions that the West has imposed, even as the publics in both the United States and Europe are not prepared for the likely economic pain. Others have proposed that NATO impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, or provide arms to the Ukrainians resisting Russian aggression, which would not affect Americans’ pocketbooks, but do increase the risk of escalation that could directly threaten global security.      

The overriding question, therefore, is of how to ensure the punishment is appropriate, and eliminates the potential for long-term damage. In the process, the United States must consider its own interests and goals as well as those of Ukraine, European allies and partners, and the broader global community.  

The near-term and urgent priority will be to address the unfolding humanitarian catastrophe caused by the war that Russia initiated. It may not seem fair that others will have to clean up for the mess that Vladimir Putin created. This isn’t like a response to an earthquake or tsunami. But the ramifications are similar, including internally displaced persons in need of food and shelter, and possibly millions of refugees fleeing Ukraine into neighboring states, especially NATO allies Poland and Romania.

Like the brutal civil war in Syria that drove millions to flee into Turkey and Europe, we can expect to see a similar scenario playing out in this instance. The desperate Syrians who fled the civil war caused enormous strain on European states, in extreme cases prompting a xenophobic backlash that upended domestic politics. 

That may not be the case here, but the scale of the problem may be quite severe, as Ukraine is simply closer to the heart of Europe, and the methods that the Russians are likely to use to put down any Ukrainian resistance will be truly draconian, a la Chechnya. Addressing the humanitarian crisis of the Ukraine war will be an enormous undertaking that will call for a wide-ranging response by international bodies, sovereign states, and NGOs.

A proxy war in the middle of Europe, with the U.S. and NATO allies arming Ukrainian resistance fighters, could also end in disaster. There is a tendency in the short-term to focus on the morally superior stance, that it is always better to aid the defenders against the aggressors. But it is worth asking whether that is in the best interest of the Ukrainian people, for example if the additional arms prolong a war that might otherwise have ended more quickly in a negotiated settlement. 

A grinding war in Ukraine, including a civil conflict that pits pro-Russian vs. anti-Russian Ukrainians could have terrible long-term implications. Countries do not easily recover from such things. 

Meanwhile, there is the serious risk of escalation outside of Ukraine. The possibility of U.S. or NATO forces coming into direct contact with the Russian military is ever-present, as incidents in the first 48 hours of the war involving a vessel from Turkey proved. Managing these risks requires great skill and persistence. The U.S. and NATO should therefore strenuously resist any calls to institute a no-fly zone or other measures that would inevitably involve such clashes.

People like to imagine turning Ukraine into Putin’s Afghanistan, but they should remember the extraordinary — even sometimes absurd — lengths that the Carter and Reagan administrations employed to conceal U.S. involvement in that earlier war (even though the Soviets were quite aware). As Austin Carson explains in his book Secret Wars: Covert Conflict in International Politics, the United States worried about the spread of the conflict should that support be disclosed. And there were inadvertent consequences as well. The United States’ arming of the anti-Soviet resistance in Afghanistan, though justified at the time, eventually produced al-Qaeda. 

One way or another, the Russian war in Ukraine will wind down. Our common interests should push toward something other than a new Cold War between Russia and the West. All parties should recall that decades-long confrontation, with vast armies massed along militarized borders, as a tragedy to be avoided. The only thing worse, also a distinct possibility, is World War III.

In short, we are going to have to figure out a way to deal with Russia, perhaps even a Russia still ruled by Mr. Putin. Trusted third-parties may prove to be essential intermediaries for maintaining communication between Putin and the rest of the world. The Swiss, for example, facilitated the dialogue that eventually produced the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran, and they could play a similar role in the aftermath of the Ukraine war. 

No doubt, going back to the status quo ante will be impossible for the foreseeable future. However, leaving the door open for diplomacy, and ensuring continued exchanges with the Russian people, are vital if we don’t want to see an Iron Curtain descend across Europe again, punishing everyone, not just Putin and his cronies, or the Russian nation. 

Over time, anger and resentment toward Moscow will give way to something else. The impulse to cut Russia out of the international system is understandable but also impractical. Efforts to totally isolate Russia will increase its dependence on China, and no doubt expand Western frictions with Beijing, further accelerating deglobalization. The dramatic expansion of trade and cultural exchange over the last three decades opened up unprecedented economic opportunities for the world, almost ending extreme poverty. Putin deserves to be punished, but not at the cost of a much poorer future for everyone.   


Saint Petersburg, Russia, military Victory Day parade in 2019. (Shutterstock/Pimen)
Analysis | Europe
Recep Tayyip Erdogan Benjamin Netanyahu
Top photo credit: President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Shutterstock/ Mustafa Kirazli) and Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Salty View/Shutterstock)
Is Turkey's big break with Israel for real?

Why Israel is now turning its sights on Turkey

Middle East

As the distribution of power shifts in the region, with Iran losing relative power and Israel and Turkey emerging on top, an intensified rivalry between Tel Aviv and Ankara is not a question of if, but how. It is not a question of whether they choose the rivalry, but how they choose to react to it: through confrontation or peaceful management.

As I describe in Treacherous Alliance, a similar situation emerged after the end of the Cold War: The collapse of the Soviet Union dramatically changed the global distribution of power, and the defeat of Saddam's Iraq in the Persian Gulf War reshuffled the regional geopolitical deck. A nascent bipolar regional structure took shape with Iran and Israel emerging as the two main powers with no effective buffer between them (since Iraq had been defeated). The Israelis acted on this first, inverting the strategy that had guided them for the previous decades: The Doctrine of the Periphery. According to this doctrine, Israel would build alliances with the non-Arab states in its periphery (Iran, Turkey, and Ethiopia) to balance the Arab powers in its vicinity (Iraq, Syria, and Egypt, respectively).

keep readingShow less
Havana, Cuba
Top Image Credit: Havana, Cuba, 2019. (CLWphoto/Shutterstock)

Trump lifted sanctions on Syria. Now do Cuba.

North America

President Trump’s new National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) on Cuba, announced on June 30, reaffirms the policy of sanctions and hostility he articulated at the start of his first term in office. In fact, the new NSPM is almost identical to the old one.

The policy’s stated purpose is to “improve human rights, encourage the rule of law, foster free markets and free enterprise, and promote democracy” by restricting financial flows to the Cuban government. It reaffirms Trump’s support for the 1996 Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act, which explicitly requires regime change — that Cuba become a multiparty democracy with a free market economy (among other conditions) before the U.S. embargo will be lifted.

keep readingShow less
SPD Germany Ukraine
Top Photo: Lars Klingbeil (l-r, SPD), Federal Minister of Finance, Vice-Chancellor and SPD Federal Chairman, and Bärbel Bas (SPD), Federal Minister of Labor and Social Affairs and SPD Party Chairwoman, bid farewell to the members of the previous Federal Cabinet Olaf Scholz (SPD), former Federal Chancellor, Nancy Faeser, Saskia Esken, SPD Federal Chairwoman, Karl Lauterbach, Svenja Schulze and Hubertus Heil at the SPD Federal Party Conference. At the party conference, the SPD intends to elect a new executive committee and initiate a program process. Kay Nietfeld/dpa via Reuters Connect

Does Germany’s ruling coalition have a peace problem?

Europe

Surfacing a long-dormant intra-party conflict, the Friedenskreise (peace circles) within the Social Democratic Party of Germany has published a “Manifesto on Securing Peace in Europe” in a stark challenge to the rearmament line taken by the SPD leaders governing in coalition with the conservative CDU-CSU under Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

Although the Manifesto clearly does not have broad support in the SPD, the party’s leader, Deputy Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil, won only 64% support from the June 28-29 party conference for his performance so far, a much weaker endorsement than anticipated. The views of the party’s peace camp may be part of the explanation.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.