Follow us on social

2022-02-21t234712z_531925472_mt1tassp51076415_rtrmadp_3_tass-pic

Putin's move on Donetsk, Lugansk is illegal but falls short of new 'invasion'

The next steps are critical: we must hold threat of full scale sanctions and a Ukrainian military response, unless Russia extends farther.

Analysis | Europe

Russia’s official recognition of the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk republics is both illegal under international law and acutely unhelpful politically, and makes a diplomatic resolution of the existing crisis even less likely. 

The Minsk II process for a resolution of the Donbas conflict is now dead — though to be fair, the Ukrainian government had long since made clear that it had no intention of implementing its basic provisions (on autonomy for the Donbas), and the West had made clear that it had no intention of pressuring Ukraine to do so.

The real question however is what Russia does next. In itself, this Russian action changes nothing in practical terms. These areas of the Donbas have been separate from Ukraine, with Russian backing, since 2014, and intermittent fighting has been ongoing since then. Western sanctions are already in place to punish Russia for this.

So far, the Russian recognition of the Donbas republics is a very different matter indeed from the full-scale invasion of the whole of Ukraine against which Washington and NATO have warned, and which the “Defend Ukraine Sovereignty” sanctions bill before the U.S. Congress today is intended to deter. Such an invasion would be a vastly greater violation of international law, and would lead to a vastly greater and more dangerous conflict. It could be compared to a scenario in which, rather than invading part of Cyprus in 1974, Turkey had occupied the whole of Cyprus, or even Greece itself. Such an invasion, if God forbid it occurs, should meet with the harshest possible Western economic and political response.

Parts of President Putin’s speech announcing the recognition of the Donbas clearly threatened such a wider invasion. In recent days, Russia has been initiating new military clashes in the Donbas and blaming them on the Ukrainians. It remains to be seen whether this is intended to put additional pressure on the West to reach agreements on arms control and NATO membership, or whether the decision to invade has already been taken and Russia is now manufacturing the excuse to do so.

There can also be different levels of military action. A Russian seizure of the whole of Ukraine, as imagined by Washington, seems inherently unlikely. An occupation of Russian-speaking areas of eastern and southern Ukraine is much more plausible. It may also be, however, that Russia will content itself with inflicting a limited local defeat on Ukrainian forces in the Donbas, by way of illustrating NATO’s inability to help Ukraine, followed perhaps by a pause to see what the West does next.

This would fall far short of invasion. It would mark only a limited escalation in the conflict that has been going on in the Donbas since 2014. It therefore remains critically important that we should keep the threat of full-scale sanctions in hand in order to deter Russia from full-scale invasion. If we impose full sanctions now, we will have no more economic ammunition to use, and Russia would have nothing to lose by widening the war.

For as the Biden administration, NATO and all NATO members have declared, we are not going to fight to defend Ukraine. Economic pressure on Russia is therefore the only powerful lever we have to influence Russian actions. This Western refusal to fight also makes the idea of Ukrainian NATO membership inherently absurd. Nobody in the West is — quite rightly — going to risk the nuclear annihilation of mankind for the sake of the international orientation of Ukraine.

We should however be equally clear that if — as parts of Putin’s speech suggest may prove the case — Russia does in fact extend the war beyond the Donbas to the rest of Ukraine, then the West would quite rightly regard this as a very grave crime, the full range of sanctions envisioned in the bill before Congress should indeed be imposed, and all Western states should support them. 

In the meantime, we should continue to urge the Ukrainian government to take no military action in the Donbas that could help give Russia the pretext for invasion. The West in the past was grossly irresponsible in suggesting a Western military commitment to Ukraine that does not in fact exist. We should not compound this by encouraging any further risk-taking by Ukrainians. Western politicians who encourage a hard Ukrainian line should remind themselves that it is not they who will be risking their lives in the event of war.

The Russian recognition of the Donbas republics, though deeply regrettable, should also not prevent us from continuing to pursue negotiations with Russia towards new arms control agreements, in an effort to reach agreement with Russia on these issues and help prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

As long as such an invasion has not yet taken place, the meeting between Anthony Blinken and Sergei Lavrov this week should therefore still go ahead, and American condemnation of Russia’s latest action should be accompanied by continued efforts at compromise with Russia on these aspects of Putin’s speech. Of course, any new arms control agreements would have to be mutual and reciprocal, and to include the withdrawal of all the new Russian forces deployed around the borders of Ukraine in recent months.

Indeed, the latest events are a further demonstration of the need to renegotiate European security arrangements to place them on a more sustainable and peaceful basis. War between nuclear-armed powers is not an option.

Russia’s action has narrowed the space for diplomacy to resolve this crisis, but not yet destroyed it. As long as there is any hope of preventing a wider war, it is our duty to pursue it, both by the genuine and credible threat of massive economic sanctions, and by the genuine and sincere offer of reasonable compromise.

Thanks to our readers and supporters, Responsible Statecraft has had a tremendous year. A complete website overhaul made possible in part by generous contributions to RS, along with amazing writing by staff and outside contributors, has helped to increase our monthly page views by 133%! In continuing to provide independent and sharp analysis on the major conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as the tumult of Washington politics, RS has become a go-to for readers looking for alternatives and change in the foreign policy conversation. 

 

We hope you will consider a tax-exempt donation to RS for your end-of-the-year giving, as we plan for new ways to expand our coverage and reach in 2025. Please enjoy your holidays, and here is to a dynamic year ahead!

LUGANSK, LUGANSK PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC - FEBRUARY 22, 2022: Lugansk residents celebrate recognition of independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics by Russia. Russian President Putin signed decrees recognizing independence of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics on February 21, 2022. Alexander Reka/TASS.
Analysis | Europe
F35
Top image credit: Brian G. Rhodes / Shutterstock.com

The low hanging DOGE fruit at the Pentagon for Elon and Vivek

Military Industrial Complex

Any effort to suggest what Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s Department of Government Efficiency should put forward for cuts must begin with a rather large caveat: should a major government contractor with billions riding on government spending priorities be in charge of setting the tone for the debate on federal budget priorities?

Musk’s SpaceX earns substantial sums from launching U.S. government military satellites, and his company stands to make billions producing military versions of his Starlink communications system. He is a sworn opponent of government regulation, and is likely, among other things, to recommend reductions of government oversight of emerging military technologies.

keep readingShow less
war profit
Top image credit: Andrew Angelov via shutterstock.com

War drives revenue increases for world's top arms dealers

QiOSK

Revenues at the world’s top 100 global arms and military services producing companies totaled $632 billion in 2023, a 4.2% increase over the prior year, according to new data released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

The largest increases were tied to ongoing conflicts, including a 40% increase in revenues for Russian companies involved in supplying Moscow’s war on Ukraine and record sales for Israeli firms producing weapons used in that nation’s brutal war on Gaza. Revenues for Turkey’s top arms producing companies also rose sharply — by 24% — on the strength of increased domestic defense spending plus exports tied to the war in Ukraine.

keep readingShow less
Tibilisi Georgia protests
Top photo credit: 11/28/24. An anti-government protester holds the European flag in front of a makeshift barricade on fire during the demonstration in Tibilisi, Georgia. Following a controversial election last month, ruling party "Georgian Dream" Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced earlier today that they will no longer pursue a European future until the end of 2028. (Jay Kogler / SOPA Images via Reuters Connect)

Streets on fire: Is Georgia opposition forming up a coup?

Europe

Events have taken an astonishing turn in the Republic of Georgia. On Thursday, newly re-appointed Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidzeannounced that Georgia would not “put the issue of opening negotiations with the European Union on the agenda until the end of 2028,” and not accept budget support from the EU until then, either.

In the three-decade history of EU enlargement into Eastern Europe and Eurasia, where the promise of membership and the capricious integration process have roiled societies, felled governments, raised and dashed hopes like no other political variable, this is unheard of. So is the treatment Georgia has received at the hands of the West.

keep readingShow less

Election 2024

Latest

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.