Follow us on social

Xi-biden-tsai

US 'credibility' based on defense of Taiwan is folly

Washington may find that it's much too high a price to pay, much like Vietnam 60 years ago.

Analysis | Asia-Pacific

In early December, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Taiwan is “a critical node within the first island chain (in the Western Pacific), anchoring a network of U.S. allies and partners … that is critical to the region’s security and critical to the defense of vital U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific.” 

The United States must reject making the defense of Taiwan the centerpiece of American grand strategy in the Indo-Pacific. Centering our credibility in the region on deterring and — if necessary — repelling a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would distort the perception of our genuine security interests in East Asia and significantly restrict the freedom of action for policymakers in the event of a crisis. Armed conflict would likely occur, committing the U.S. military to “an acute operational disadvantage,” according to a recent analysis from RAND political scientists.

Far from enhancing the credibility of U.S. deterrence, a clear, unambiguous American defense commitment to Taiwan would shatter it. It is foolhardy to assume the U.S. could delude Chinese defense planners into thinking that we care more about the defense of Taiwan than they do seizing it. For Communist China, national honor is at stake in Taiwan. For the U.S., it is a matter of geopolitics — an important but ultimately unemotional question of gamesmanship. American policymakers would be forced to choose between admitting the weakness of America’s  deterrence vis-à-vis Taiwan, or committing themselves to a military situation in which China possesses both the geographic and operational advantages. It is unlikelyAmerica would ultimately emerge the victor in such a contest and, even if it did, it would do so at a cost that vastly exceeds the strategic significance of Taiwan itself.

Indeed, defending the island is an important objective but it cannot become the end-all-be-all of our regional defense policy. The U.S. outspends the Chinese on defense by some $400 billion. Are our alliances and defense posture in the Indo-Pacific so weak that it cannot endure the loss of a single island only 60 miles from the Chinese mainland? Indeed, Taiwan is less intrinsically valuable in and of itself than what its defense supposedly represents: a psychological bellwether for the remainder of America’s defense posture in the region. If Taiwan falls, it is believed, so too will the remainder of our allies in the region — a long-since disproven phenomenon academics refer to as “bandwagoning,” which amounts to little more than a “domino theory” redux

American policymakers, especially members of both houses of Congress, need to seriously consider the logical and probable implications of unambiguously committing Washington to the defense of Taiwan. They must examine, coldly, the consequences of binding American credibility to a game of deterrence where our opponent will always be willing to out-escalate us. The U.S. requires a dose of realism in its discussion surrounding Taiwan; its fall would be damaging but not fatal. To believe otherwise does nothing but a disservice to ourselves.

Sixty years ago, American policymakers were confronted with a similarly complex and confusing set of circumstances in the Indo-Pacific. American political leaders also sought to prevent an increase in Chinese political and military influence  and avoid a cascading defection of allies if U.S. deterrence failed. Yet, for all the sophisticated policy papers and war games, American policymakers failed to ask the most basic questions of whether committing the U.S. to an independent and non-communist South Vietnam was an appropriate course of action. They failed to reflect on their most fundamental assumptions, which proved fatally flawed. As former Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara observed in his 1995 memoir,In Retrospect: 

The dilemma [U.S. Secretary of State] Dean [Rusk] and I defined was going to haunt us for years. Looking back at the record of those meetings [in early 1961], it is clear our analysis was nowhere near adequate. We failed to ask the five most basic questions: Was it true the fall of South Vietnam would trigger the fall of Southeast Asia? Would that constitute a grave threat to the West’s security? What kind of war—guerilla or conventional—might develop? Could we win it with US troops fighting alongside the South Vietnamese? Should we not know the answers to all these questions before deciding whether to commit troops? 

McNamara ultimately concluded that, “We…overestimated the effect of South Vietnam’s loss on the security of the West…straying from this central truth, we built a progressively more massive effort on an inherently unstable foundation.” Indeed, U.S. policymakers cared far less about the fate of South Vietnam itself than what the tiny nation represented. As Assistant Secretary of Defense John McNaughton described U.S. aims in South Vietnam to McNamara in a memo in 1965, 70 percent of the reason the United States remained committed to the country was simply in order to “avoid a humiliating US defeat (to our reputation as a guarantor).” Only 20 percent was to keep the territory out of Chinese hands.

The U.S. risks repeating its worst errors of the Cold War by centering its future Indo-Pacific grand strategy on the credibility of the U.S. defense of Taiwan.Before doing so, Washington would be wise to heed Secretary McNamara’s advice and avoid the same grave mistakes made nearly 60 years ago. The United States, if it centers its Indo-Pacific credibility on the defense of Taiwan, risks once again building a massive effort on an inherently unstable foundation.


Chinese President Xi Jinping (Shutterstock/Kaliva); President Joe Biden (Devi Bones/Shutterstock);Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen (shutterstock/Glen Photo)
Analysis | Asia-Pacific
Somalia
Top image credit: U.S. forces host a range day with the Danab Brigade in Somalia, May 9, 2021. Special Operations Command Africa remains engaged with partner forces in Somalia in order to promote safety and stability across the Horn of Africa. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Zoe Russell)

Why the US can't beat al-Shabaab in Somalia

Africa

The New York Times reported earlier this month that recent gains by al-Shabaab Islamist militants in central and southern Somalia has prompted a debate within the State Department about closing the U.S. Embassy in Mogadishu and withdrawing most American personnel. At the forefront of some officials’ minds, according to the Times, are memories of recent foreign policy fiascos, such as the fall of the Afghan government amid a hasty American withdrawal in 2021.

There are good reasons to question why the U.S. has been unable to defeat al-Shabaab despite nearly 20 years of U.S. military involvement in the country. But the scale of the U.S. role is drastically different than that of Afghanistan, and the U.S. cannot necessarily be described as the most significant external security actor on the ground. At the same time, the Trump administration has given no indication that it will scale down drone strikes — meaning that the U.S. will continue to privilege military solutions.

keep readingShow less
Hegseth Guam
Top photo credit: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth departs Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, March 27, 2025. (DOD photo by U.S. Air Force Madelyn Keech)

Hegseth goes to 'spear point' Guam to prep for war with China

Asia-Pacific

The Guam headlines from the recent visit of the U.S. secretary of defense are only part of Secretary Hegseth’s maiden visit to the Pacific. It is Guam’s place in the larger picture - where the island fits into U.S. strategy - that helps us understand how the “tip of the spear” is being positioned. Perhaps overlooked, the arrangement of the “Guam piece” gives us a better sense not only of Guam’s importance to the United States, but also of how the U.S. sees the larger geopolitical competition taking shape.

Before he landed on Guam, the secretary of defense circulated a secret memo that prioritized U.S. readiness for a potential conflict with China over Taiwan. At the same time, it was reported that U.S. intelligence assessed that Guam would be “a major target of Chinese missile strikes” if China launched an invasion of Taiwan.

keep readingShow less
Pope Francis' legacy of inter-faith diplomacy
Top image credit: Pope Francis met with Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, one of the Muslim world's leading authorities on March 6, 2021 in Najaf, Iraq. (Vatican Media via REUTERS)

Pope Francis' legacy of inter-faith diplomacy

Global Crises

One of the most enduring tributes to Pope Francis, who passed away this Easter, would be the appreciation for his legacy of inter-religious diplomacy, a vision rooted in his humility, compassion, and a commitment to bridging divides — between faiths, cultures, and ideologies — from a standpoint of mutual respect and tolerance.

Among his most profound contributions is his historic meeting with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Najaf, Iraq, on March 6, 2021. What made this meeting a true landmark in inter-faith dialogue was the fact it brought together, for the first time, the spiritual leader of the world’s 1.2 billion Roman Catholics and one of the most revered figures in Shia Islam, with influence on tens of millions of Shia Muslims globally. In a humble, yet moving ceremony, the meeting took place in al-Sistani’s modest home in Najaf. A frail al-Sistani, who rarely receives visitors and typically remains seated, stood to greet the 84-year-old Pope and held his hand, in a gesture that underscored mutual respect.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.