Follow us on social

51647860110_a952ef47d1_o

The evidence is in: Dialogue with China works

New research shows diplomatic efforts between Washington and Beijing were having an effect. So what happened?

Analysis | Reporting | Asia-Pacific

Washington has developed a general skepticism over the efficacy of official U.S.-China dialogue. In recent years, the United States has largely abandoned diplomacy and engagement in favor of militant posturing. But these changes reflect political expediency, not the failure of diplomacy. In fact, quantitative and qualitative assessments of U.S.-China dialogues reveal the processes were critical in stabilizing the relationship.

New research conducted by the National Committee on American Foreign Policy, the American Friends Service Committee, and four independent researchers on the diplomatic commitments made during the Obama administration shows diplomatic efforts with China were paying significant dividends for U.S. interests. 

The researchers examined the nearly 1,000 commitments the two countries made to each other between 2010 and 2016 and tracked their outcomes. The extensive audit revealed that official dialogue processes (then known as the Strategic & Economic Dialogue) contributed significantly to U.S. and global security by stabilizing the global economy in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, addressing climate change, and improving public health and pandemic response. It also enhanced security cooperation, helped clamp down on illegal wildlife trafficking, and improved nuclear waste disposal efforts. 

This research not only demonstrates what U.S. diplomacy can achieve with China but also reveals how these low-cost engagements are necessary for managing peaceful relations between the two countries.

Today, U.S.-China tensions are undermining international cooperation to stem the spread of COVID-19 and are damaging the international system. Before the zero-sum competition narrative dominated Washington policy circles, the United States and China cooperated closely to address the Ebola crisis in Africa, even agreeing to jointly set up the Africa Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The Africa CDC was established just before the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak, after the United States withdrew from the project citing concerns about China’s data collection interests.  

Stabilizing the global economy — a potentially urgent need as the COVID-19 crisis drags on — was another area of diplomatic progress in the Obama era. After the 2008 global financial crisis, the United States and China agreed to a series of measures to spur economic recovery and growth. In these discussions, China committed to raising its share of domestic consumption and the United States to raising domestic savings rates; these policy changes required clear and continuous communication from both parties to ensure smooth implementation. Critically, both countries also committed to reforms for over-the-counter derivatives, the main vehicle by which the financial crisis started; both sides followed through on these commitments.

In response to the latest report from the International Panel on Climate Change, UN Secretary General António Guterres warned that the document represents a “code red for humanity.” Encouragingly though, clean energy and climate change is a clear area of past and potential progress in the U.S.-China relationship. The two sides cooperated to improve environmental regulations and conservation practices; they also conducted joint research on emerging clean energy technologies and facilitated international collaboration, ultimately improving the commitments made in the Paris Agreement. The recent U.S.-China agreement to boost cooperation on climate change emphasizes the importance of dialogue between the two countries. 

Put simply, the record of progress on the specific issues on which the United States and China share mutual interest shows that diplomatic engagement with China is largely successful. And, in areas where dialogue did not change China’s fundamental approach to U.S. interests, diplomacy still reduced risks of misperception and miscalculation. The alternative — relying on military intimidation — leaves little room for error; it’s a costly, risky, and short-sighted strategy for managing relations between the world’s two largest military powers.

The successes of U.S.-China engagement during the Obama administration rested on two building blocks that should be reestablished. First, there was high-level buy-in to a comprehensive diplomatic process. This top-down endorsement of U.S.-China diplomacy gave working-level officials the space and permission to make progress in areas of mutual interest, particularly important in China’s system where working-level officials tend not to act without high-level direction. Instead of confining progress to the presidential summit level, a separate process led by the secretaries of state and treasury, alongside other agency counterparts, negotiated specific outcomes. Working together, the top-down and bottom-up processes established a rhythm of diplomacy that created substantial pressure on officials at all levels to deliver on their commitments.

Second, the dialogues were held on an annual basis, creating an action-forcing mechanism for these specific commitments. A regular schedule forced the U.S. and Chinese systems to first consolidate their collective requests for the other side, and then to negotiate on those requests in a timely manner. Without deliverables and deadlines, issues in the U.S.-China relationship are left to drift and fester. 

The dialogue process that the United States held with China in the “engagement era” effectively stabilized the relationship by separating areas of conflict, competition, and cooperation. Further, the process allowed the United States to make progress on its interests in a peaceful and relatively low-cost manner, which did more to build U.S. credibility (bilaterally and globally) than could be accomplished with military buildup and confrontational monologues. 

Fortunately, the conversation in Washington is beginning to shift. Recently, over 30 Members of Congress sent a letter to President Biden urging him to pursue climate diplomacy with China and recognized the importance of dialogue in the bilateral relationship. U.S. military might and political posturing will not bring positive outcomes for people in the United States or in China. It is time to revive the proven tools of diplomacy to manage the U.S.-China relationship. 

Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken meets with Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi on the margins of the G20 Summit in Rome, Italy, on October 31, 2021. [State Department photo by Ron Przysucha]
Analysis | Reporting | Asia-Pacific
Chris Murphy Ben Cardin

Photo Credit: viewimage and lev radin via shutterstock.com

Senate has two days to right Menendez’s wrongs on Egypt

QiOSK

Time is ticking if senators want to reinstate a hold on U.S. military aid to Egypt following indictments this week against Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), who is accused of taking bribes in exchange for greasing the skids for Cairo to receive weapons and aid.

On September 22, the Southern District of New York indicted the New Jersey Democrat, his wife Nadine Arslanian Menendez, and three associates on federal corruption charges. Prosecutors alleged that the senator accepted bribes, including gold bars, stacks of cash, and a Mercedes-Benz convertible, using his position as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to benefit the government of Egypt. The FBI is now investigating Egyptian intelligence’s possible role.

keep readingShow less
||
Diplomacy Watch: A peace summit without Russia
Diplomacy Watch: Laying the groundwork for a peace deal in Ukraine

Diplomacy Watch: Domestic politics continue to challenge Ukraine’s allies

QiOSK

Last week’s edition of Diplomacy Watch focused on how politics in Poland and Slovakia were threatening Western unity over Ukraine. A spat between Warsaw and Kyiv over grain imports led Polish President Andrzej Duda to compare Ukraine to a “drowning person … capable of pulling you down to the depths ,” while upcoming elections in Slovakia could bring to power a new leader who has pledged to halt weapons sales to Ukraine.

As Connor Echols wrote last week, “the West will soon face far greater challenges in maintaining unity on Ukraine than at any time since the war began.”

keep readingShow less
What the GOP candidates said about Ukraine in 4:39 minutes

What the GOP candidates said about Ukraine in 4:39 minutes

QiOSK

The second Republican debate last night hosted by Fox news was marked by a lot of acrimony, interruptions, personal insults and jokes that didn't quite land, like Chris Christie calling an (absent) Donald Trump, "Donald Duck," and Mike Pence saying he's "slept with a teacher for 30 years" (his wife).

What it did not feature was an informed exchange on the land war in Europe that the United States is heavily invested in, to the tune of $113 billon dollars and counting, not to mention precious weapons, trainers, intelligence and political capital. Out of the tortuous two hours of the debate — which included of course, minutes-long commercials and a "game" at the end that they all refused to play — Ukraine was afforded all but 4 minutes and 39 seconds. This, before the rancor moved on — not to China, though that country took a beating throughout the evening — but to militarizing the border and sending special forces into Mexico to take out cartel-terrorists who are working with the Chinese.

keep readingShow less

Ukraine War Crisis

Latest