Follow us on social

How the nuclear game is rigged to maintain the status quo

How the nuclear game is rigged to maintain the status quo

The Pentagon is determined to stop President Biden from changing our Cold War posture.

Analysis | Global Crises

Harry Truman never ordered the atomic bombing of Hiroshima. He just didn’t do anything to stop it.

Plans for the bombing were well underway by the time Truman assumed the presidency in April 1945 and Truman did nothing to alter them. He appears to have been surprised by the rapid second attack on Nagasaki and only intervened after learning a third strike was planned. A hand-written directive went to General Lester Groves, ordering him to stand down unless he had “express authority from the President,” notes the general’s biographer, Robert Norris.

Up to that point, all the key decisions had been made under Groves’ guidance, as the military head of the fabled Manhattan Project. Groves saw Truman’s role as the public legitimizer of the military’s decisions, “As far as I was concerned,” said Groves, “his decision was one of noninterference — basically a decision not to upset the existing plans.”

That remains the attitude of the nuclear bureaucracy today — a complex much more powerful than anything Groves commanded and one that is adamant about not upsetting the programs and polices forged during the Cold War. “There’s no points of debate” in the internal discussions, a former Pentagon official said recently. Rather than working to implement President Joe Biden’s long-held views on restraining the massive destructive power of the nuclear arsenal, the Pentagon has rigged the system to marginalize the president.

Politico reported that “Pentagon officials and their hawkish allies…are arguing to keep the status quo.” It would take a significant push by Biden to reverse their plans. The Pentagon holds all the cards.

First, the Pentagon controls the pen. Pentagon officials run the Nuclear Posture Review that early next year will produce the official public presentation of the nation’s nuclear policy. This means that instead of a process that gives equal voice to the State Department and the National Security Council, the policy is drafted by officials with the most stake in existing programs.

Second, dissent is squashed. Earlier this year, as Responsible Statecraft reported, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Leanor Tomero was fired from her job overseeing the NPR because she insisted the process consider Biden’s views on changing nuclear policy and slowing down programs.

The message was clear: Get in line or get out. The new deputy assistant secretary put in charge, Richard Johnson, is a respected expert but he knows little about nuclear weapons policy compared to Tomero’s years of experience, including as a lead staffer for House Armed Services Committee Chairman Adam Smith (D-Wash.). The Trump-appointed Pentagon staffers who maneuvered to get Tomero fired are still there, and still guiding the process.

Third, the key decisions are made in secret. Johnson has pledged to consult privately with outside national security experts, but this appears to be little more than public relations after the furor over Tomero’s firing. He has largely outsourced the consultative process to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. It is fitting that experts will spend a few days giving their views in a conference room in DuPont Circle while the real decisions are made in the rings of the Pentagon and the contractors’ offices that circle it.

Fourth, the forces of reform are simply out gunned. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the government will spend over $650 billion on new nuclear weapons this decade. Much of that will go to the big five defense contractors: Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, General Dynamics, Boeing and Northrop Grumman, already flush with post-9/11 contracts. To protect those contracts, these arms firms deploy a small army of lobbyists in Washington, run a revolving door that shuttles officials between top policy jobs and top contractor jobs, disperse contracts to nearly every congressional district, contribute generously to lawmakers on the key committees that oversee their programs, are major advertisers in all the publications covering national security and have flooded Washington think tanks over the past 20 years with grants to mute criticism of their programs.

Fifth, the president has other issues demanding his attention. If Biden were allowed to be Biden, it is likely that he would cut back the planned new weapons (expected to cost over $1.8 trillion over the next 25 years) and adopt policies he has long favored, including declaring that the United States would never start a nuclear war (known as a “no first use” policy or “sole purpose”).

But, as one defense said recently, “It’s not likely that sole purpose or no first use will be presented as options.” In other words, while Biden is focused on the pandemic, economic recovery, climate change, racial justice, the 2022 elections and other issues, Pentagon officials will simply neuter the report to exclude deviations from their agenda.

Sixth, the Pentagon is skilled at deploying “the allies” to thwart nuclear policy change. U.S. officials and contractors interested in preserving the status quo orchestrate their colleagues in allied defense ministries to bombard Biden and other top officials with complaints that any change in policy would weaken the alliance. While European publics are supportive of reducing the role and number of nuclear weapons, these views are sidelined in favor of the established bureaucracies. One potential crack in this reform resistance might be a request by a new center-left coalition in Germany that the United States withdraw the dozens of weapons stored in that nation — but that may come too late to counter the “allies’ views” charade.

Finally, the arms control community is small, divided, under-funded and focused primarily on policy analysis. Several have produce excellent reports, for example Global Zero’s Alternative Nuclear Posture Review that detail how a much smaller, more affordable force would “strengthen control over nuclear operation and reduce the risk of their use while maintaining a robust and stable deterrent force.” But these recommendations get little attention in Washington, for all the reasons cited above.

Fundamentally, America’s nuclear posture is driven by contracts, not strategy. Policy debates, no matter how compelling, cannot overcome the sheer power of money to control the process.

To prevail, to assert true civilian control over nuclear policy, President Biden will have to buck his bureaucracy as forcefully as he did to finally end the fruitless war in Afghanistan. Biden could get support from his top advisers who care about nuclear policy, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan and chief of staff Ron Klain. But it will be tough.

“The administration must harness this opportunity to rethink the status quo and not just rubber-stamp the Pentagon and the defense industry’s interest in continuing unnecessary weapons,” Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) told the Guardian.

Unless they make this a presidential imperative, Biden will end up playing the role Gen. Groves envisioned for a president: simply present the public justification for the Pentagon’s existing plans.


Image: 3dfoto via shutterstock.com|Image: Vivi Petru via shutterstock.com
Analysis | Global Crises
Trump and Keith Kellogg
Top photo credit: U.S. President Donald Trump and Keith Kellogg (now Trump's Ukraine envoy) in 2017. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Trump's silence on loss of Ukraine lithium territory speaks volumes

Europe

Last week, Russian military forces seized a valuable lithium field in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, the latest success of Moscow’s grinding summer offensive.

The lithium deposit in question is considered rather small by industry analysts, but is said to be a desirable prize nonetheless due to the concentration and high-quality of its ore. In other words, it is just the kind of asset that the Trump administration seemed eager to exploit when it signed its much heralded minerals agreement with Ukraine earlier this year.

keep readingShow less
Is the US now funding the bloodbath at Gaza aid centers?
Top photo credit: Palestinians walk to collect aid supplies from the U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, May 29, 2025. REUTERS/Hatem Khaled/File Photo

Is the US now funding the bloodbath at Gaza aid centers?

Middle East

Many human rights organizations say it should shut down. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have killed hundreds of Palestinians at or around its aid centers. And yet, the U.S. has committed no less than $30 million toward the controversial, Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).

As famine-like conditions grip Gaza, the GHF says it has given over 50 million meals to Palestinians at its four aid centers in central and southern Gaza Strip since late May. These centers are operated by armed U.S. private contractors, and secured by IDF forces present at or near them.

keep readingShow less
mali
Heads of state of Mali, Assimi Goita, Niger, General Abdourahamane Tiani and Burkina Faso, Captain Ibrahim Traore, pose for photographs during the first ordinary summit of heads of state and governments of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in Niamey, Niger July 6, 2024. REUTERS/Mahamadou Hamidou//File Photo

Post-coup juntas across the Sahel face serious crises

Africa

In Mali, General Assimi Goïta, who took power in a 2020 coup, now plans to remain in power through at least the end of this decade, as do his counterparts in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger. As long-ruling juntas consolidate power in national capitals, much of the Sahelian terrain remains out of government control.

Recent attacks on government security forces in Djibo (Burkina Faso), Timbuktu (Mali), and Eknewane (Niger) have all underscored the depth of the insecurity. The Sahelian governments face a powerful threat from jihadist forces in two organizations, Jama‘at Nusrat al-Islam wa-l-Muslimin (the Group for Supporting Islam and Muslims, JNIM, which is part of al-Qaida) and the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP). The Sahelian governments also face conventional rebel challengers and interact, sometimes in cooperation and sometimes in tension, with various vigilantes and community-based armed groups.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.