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Raisi

What to take away from new Iranian president's debut

Ebrihim Raisi came out swinging at his first press conference, indicating new challenges ahead for Washington-Tehran diplomacy.

Analysis | Middle East

Iran's president-elect Ebrahim Raisi adopted a tough tone on foreign policy in his first press conference today, declaring that Iran’s proxy armies and ballistic missiles are not up for negotiation, and that he won’t meet with President Biden.

But there are still few signs that his presidency will bring about any changes to Iran's current red lines in regards to JCPOA renewal. Outside these red lines, however, things will likely get tougher, with ultra-conservative Raisi’s election.

Iran has long maintained that neither its regional presence nor its ballistic missiles are up for negotiation. Nor did President Rouhani agree to meet with Barack Obama or Donald Trump. In that sense, Raisi's position is not new.

Nevertheless, Raisi's orientation will likely make U.S.-Iran diplomacy more challenging. While Iran has rejected diplomacy on its missiles, negotiations on missile proliferation have been a theoretical possibility. 

The Rouhani government maintained that the JCPOA was the floor, not the ceiling of diplomacy with the United States. Under Raisi, Iran may de-prioritize diplomacy with Washington, and focus instead on an Iranian pivot-to-Asia. As such, the JCPOA may become both the floor and the ceiling under Raisi, much to the chagrin of the Biden administration who strongly believe that the JCPOA cannot endure unless it is made "longer and stronger."

But Raisi's election has not changed U.S. national interest. It is still pivotal to U.S. security that Iran's pathways to a bomb are blocked. Trump has proved that there is no alternative to the JCPOA for achieving that goal — regardless of the name of the President in Iran.

Ebrahim Raisi Banner is hung in June 2021 ahead of recent elections. (Farzad Frames/Shutterstock)
Analysis | Middle East
Pressure on Biden for Gaza ceasefire appears to be working

Algeria's Representative to the United Nations Amar Bendjama speaks with U.S. Representative to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield, during a vote on a Gaza resolution that demands an immediate ceasefire for the month of Ramadan leading to a permanent sustainable ceasefire, and the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages, at U.N. headquarters in New York City, U.S., March 25, 2024. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

Pressure on Biden for Gaza ceasefire appears to be working

QiOSK

The United Nations Security Council finally managed to pass a resolution on Monday demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza — the first true indicator that pressure on President Biden to address the war’s calamities is working. The passing of the resolution was followed by spontaneous applause in the Security Council, which is highly unusual. The last time this happened was in 2003 when France’s Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin gave a historic speech against the Iraq war. The applause reflects the immense exasperation with Biden's efforts to keep the war going.

All countries supported the measure with the United States abstaining. Ten countries put forward the measure —Algeria, Guyana, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, Republic of Korea, Sierra Leone, Slovenia, and Switzerland — that is, all of the non-permanent members, or “elected members,” of the Security Council.

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How the UN Security Council can prevent the US from killing the Iran nuclear deal
How the UN Security Council can prevent the US from killing the Iran nuclear deal

Why US ceasefire proposal failed at UNSC

QiOSK

Russia and China just vetoed Biden's draft resolution on Gaza at the UN Security Council. Algeria also voted against it.

Though the resolution fell short of clearly demanding a ceasefire, Moscow and Beijing nevertheless enable Biden to shift the blame to Russia for the Council's inaction, even though Biden has been the key obstacle to progress at the Council for the last six months.

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Why the Nigerien junta wants to kick US troops out

Col. Ben Ibrahim, Niger Armed Forces (FAN) director of training, receives a briefing from Senior Master Sgt. Kyle Platt, 724th Expeditionary Air Base Squadron, Civil Engineer Flight, of the CE Flight operations at AB 201, Niger, March 11, 2023. Col. Ibrahim, and a delegation of FAN, visited AB 201 to participate in a knowledge exchange of how the different sections of the air base operate and how those sections support overall operations. Knowledge exchanges, such as these, ensure the U.S. remains an enduring partner with Niger and helps build our partner’s capacity to strengthen their defense capabilities. (U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Michael Matkin)

Why the Nigerien junta wants to kick US troops out

Africa

An American government delegation recently traveled to Niger to, according to the State Department, “continue ongoing discussions since August with leaders of the National Council for Safeguarding the Homeland (CNSP) regarding Niger’s return to a democratic path and the future of our security and development partnership.”

The CNSP is the junta that took power in Niger in July 2023, in a coup that extended a trend of military takeovers in the Sahel. For the U.S., the Nigerien coup was the most consequential of these putsches, given longstanding and intensive security cooperation, including the presence of a major U.S. drone base in the northern city of Agadez.

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