Follow us on social

Vice_president_joe_biden_visit_to_israel_march_2016_25351747720

How will Joe Biden deal with an emboldened Israel?

Biden’s Middle East policy will run up against a region where Trump and Netanyahu shattered norms with little consequence.

Analysis | Middle East

In 2015, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu broke with decades of Israeli tradition and blatantly interfered in partisan politics in the United States. Netanyahu colluded with then-Speaker of the House John Boehner to bypass President Barack Obama and address a joint session of Congress to express his opposition to the Iran nuclear deal.

Many Democrats were dismayed at Netanyahu’s action. Fifty House Democrats and eight senators skipped the speech in protest. Yet, while the incident has not been forgotten and Netanyahu’s standing with Democrats was certainly diminished, the bipartisan consensus on Israel suffered little damage.

Obama’s national security adviser Susan Rice said Netanyahu’s action was “destructive to the fabric of the relationship” between Israel and the United States. Yet in the intervening years, Israel has been refused nothing and Obama himself responded to this direct interference in American politics by giving Israel a new 10-year commitment for the largest grant of military aid in history.

Democrats taught the Israelis a lesson, one neither Netanyahu nor any other Israeli politician has forgotten. They learned that Israel can do what it wants, and Democrats will not change their votes as a result. More than that, Netanyahu demonstrated that norms and conventional wisdom can be disregarded with little consequence.

When Rice warned of harm to the essence of the U.S.-Israel relationship, Netanyahu called her bluff. But Rice wasn’t really bluffing. She surely believed what she was saying. Netanyahu correctly gambled that she was mistaken, that Democrats would echo her sentiments, but when it came time to vote on matters important to Israel, they would continue to do as they had always done, with a minority defending universal human rights and the hope for peace and the majority falling in line with Israeli policy goals.

That began the reshaping of the political landscape into what President-elect Joe Biden will face when he takes over the White House next month. Committed supporters of the Israeli right like U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, former Special Representative Jason Greenblatt, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Jared Kushner, and others set about testing conventional wisdom in similar ways, most obviously by moving the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. They, too, found there were few consequences for their actions.

In other norm shattering moves, President Trump published a plan that he claimed included a Palestinian state (it did not) without talking to the Palestinians; he recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, and Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights; and he brokered normalization agreements between Israel and several member states of the Arab League. All these moves had been argued, at one time or another, to be too dangerous, that they would set off regional earthquakes. They didn’t.

Biden will have to reckon with an emboldened Israel, one that has now proven what might have been suspected for many years: that the Jewish state has a great deal more freedom to act than it once believed.

This is not just about U.S. policy and pressure, but at least as much about the shifting dynamics of the Middle East. When Trump moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem in 2017, I wrote about what the result would be if the sort of regional display of outrage that many were warning of failed to materialize:

“Palestinians …will have been told that all the norms on which they have based their commitment to negotiations are nothing but smoke. They will have been told that the United States is their enemy, something a great many believe already, but which has never been so explicitly demonstrated. They will have been told that the international community is either unable or unwilling to do anything to materially assist them when the chips are down. They will have been told that their only hope is to create such pain for Israelis and unrest throughout the region that their needs will have to be addressed… It would also tell Israel, in no uncertain terms, that its view that its national and territorial desires completely trump Palestinian rights is correct.”

As it turned out, the message Israel has gotten is even stronger than I anticipated. They have seen that increasing their hold on the West Bank and maintaining an unrelenting siege on Gaza will no longer be an obstacle to normalization with Arab states. They can reach agreements with major players in the Arab world without giving anything at all to the Palestinians and, at least based on early responses, without endangering the rule of the autocrats they establish normal relations with.

Netanyahu will still need to do some work to mend fences with Biden and with Democrats. But his effusive praise of Donald Trump over the past few weeks while Trump waged war on American elections, coupled with the very noticeable amount of time Netanyahu waited to congratulate Biden on his victory last month sends a message to Biden that Israel is aware that it can defy a U.S. president, even undermine him, and get away with it.

It’s not complete defiance; Netanyahu is still keenly aware of how much Israel depends on the United States, and that support for Israel among Democrats has slipped markedly in recent years. But Netanyahu is telegraphing that he intends to be at least as irksome to Biden as he so often was to Obama during his time in the White House.

On Monday, the International Crisis Group, in partnership with the U.S./Middle East Project, issued a report laying out what they see as the basic steps Biden will need to take just to begin to restart Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy. The Biden administration is likely to take a few of their recommendations, such as disavowing Trump’s “Deal of the Century” and renewing ties with and funding to the Palestinian Authority and the U.N. refugee agency, UNRWA. Others which are at least as crucial are much less likely, such as refraining from using America’s veto power at the United Nations and demanding greater transparency from Israel in its use of U.S.-funded weaponry.

Israel knows it has the overwhelming support of Republicans in Congress, as well as many Democrats, despite the agenda of their party and president.

But more importantly, Democrats have leaned heavily in the past on the argument that disruption or non-cooperation with peace efforts harms Israel and carries regional consequences. But now, the United States has its embassy in Jerusalem, several Arab states have normalized relations with Israel, even Saudi Arabia is much more open about its coordination and communication with Israel, and all the warnings about an explosion of rage in the region have not come to pass.

Netanyahu and the Israeli right have argued for years that peace with the Arab world was possible without ending the occupation. The United States maintained it was not, but now the evidence is clear that the Arab leadership is not only willing to abandon the Palestinians, they can get away with it too.

That will make Israel and its supporters in Washington much bolder and less willing to compromise with an American government it will inevitably see as less friendly than its predecessor. Biden’s inclination to moderation and accommodation will not mix well with the new Israeli attitude.


Photo: US Embassy, Tel Aviv
Analysis | Middle East
Reza Pahlavi, Crown Prince of Ira
Top photo credit: Reza Pahlavi, Crown Prince of Iran speaking at an event hosted by the Center for Political Thought & Leadership at Arizona State University in Tempe, Arizona. (Gage Skidmore/Flickr)

Israeli-fueled fantasy to bring back Shah has absolutely no juice

Middle East

The Middle East is a region where history rarely repeats itself exactly, but often rhymes in ways that are both tragic and absurd.

Nowhere is this more apparent than in the current Israeli campaign against Iran. A campaign that, beneath its stated aims of dismantling Iran's nuclear and defense capabilities, harbors a deeper, more outlandish ambition: the hope that toppling the regime could install a friendly government under Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of Iran's last Shah. Perhaps even paving the way for a monarchical restoration.

This is not a policy officially declared in Jerusalem or Washington, but it lingers in the background of Israel’s actions and its overt calls for Iranians to “stand up” to the Islamic Republic. In April 2023, Pahlavi was hosted in Israel by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Isaac Herzog.

During the carefully choreographed visit, he prayed at the Western Wall, while avoiding the Al-Aqsa Mosque on the Temple Mount just above and made no effort to meet with Palestinian leaders. An analysis from the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs described the trip as a message that Israel recognizes Pahlavi as "the main leader of the Iranian opposition."

Figures like Gila Gamliel, a former minister of intelligence in the Israeli government, have openly called for regime change, declaring last year that a "window of opportunity has opened to overthrow the regime."

What might have been dismissed as a diplomatic gambit has, in the context of the current air war, been elevated into a strategic bet that military pressure can create the conditions for a political outcome of Israel's choosing.

The irony is hard to overstate. It was foreign intervention that set the stage for the current enmity. In 1953, a CIA/MI6 coup overthrew Mohammad Mossadegh, Iran’s last democratically elected leader. While the plot was triggered by his nationalization of the British-controlled Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, the United States joined out of Cold War paranoia, fearing the crisis would allow Iran's powerful communist party to seize power and align the country with the Soviet Union.

keep readingShow less
Emmanuel Macron,  Keir Starmer, Friedrich Merz
Top image credit: TIRANA, ALBANIA - MAY 16: France's President Emmanuel Macron, Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz speak during a Ukraine security meeting at the 6th European Political Community summit on May 16, 2025 at Skanderbeg Square in Tirana, Albania. Leon Neal/Pool via REUTERS

The EU's pathetic response to Trump's Iran attack

Middle East

The European Union’s response to the U.S. strikes on Iran Saturday has exposed more than just hypocrisy — it has revealed a vassalization so profound that the European capitals now willingly undermine both international law and their own strategic interests.

The statement by the E3, signed by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and French President Emmanuel Macron, following similar statements by the president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, and its high representative for foreign affairs Kaja Kallas, perfectly encapsulates this surrender.

keep readingShow less
iran war tehran
Top photo credit:A man reads a newspaper at a newsstand, amid the Israel-Iran conflict, in Tehran, Iran, June 22, 2025. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS

Israel and US have chosen war, unleashing fresh economic pain

Middle East

The United States has finally entered Israel’s escalating war against Iran, launching targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities to obliterate Tehran’s nuclear threat, a goal once more effectively achieved through the 2015 Iran deal.

President Trump warned Iran that there will be peace or a tragedy far greater than what Iran has witnessed in recent days, signaling that there were “other targets” if Iran wished to escalate.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.