VIDEO: Why retribution against China for COVID-19 harms US interests
The Quincy Institute's Rachel Esplin Odell explains that punitive action against Beijing right now will only undermine U.S. economic interests — after a month that saw more 22 million Americans lose their jobs.
As COVID-19 ravages America, some U.S. politicians are focusing their efforts on trying to punish the Chinese government through sanctions and other measures.
The Quincy Institute's Rachel Esplin Odell explains that punitive action against Beijing right now will only undermine U.S. economic interests — after a month that saw more 22 million Americans lose their jobs.
If U.S. officials are serious about punishing China, then the situation could quickly escalate out of control, costing untold lives and devastating the global economy. And how many countries in the world would really benefit from having to choose sides in a catastrophic Cold War between Beijing and Washington? Watch:
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Khody Akhavi is Senior Video Producer at the Quincy Institute. Previously he was Head of Video for Al-Monitor and covered the White House for Al Jazeera English, as well as produced films for the network’s flagship investigative unit.
Vladimir Putin has been humiliated in Syria and now he has to make up for it in Ukraine.
That’s what pro-war Russian commentators are advising the president to do in response to the sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, according to the New York Times this week. That sentiment has potential to derail any momentum toward negotiating an end to the war that had been gaining at least some semblance of steam over the past weeks and months.
“Mr. Putin could intensify his costly offensive in Ukraine to recover some prestige,” says the Times. And he appears poised to do just that. This week, a Pentagon spokesperson announced that the Russians are on the verge of launching its new lethal intermediate range ballistic missile on Ukraine once again, saying they’re “trying to use every weapon that they have in their arsenal to intimidate Ukraine.”
Some Russian analysts say Putin is unlikely to be influenced by outside events, and dismiss calls for him to escalate in Ukraine as “noise.” And those calling for escalating Russia’s war in Ukraine offer few details on how a depleted Russian army can achieve such maximalist aims. But, as the Times notes, “they are united in their calls for the army to step up its assaults.”
Meanwhile, however, Moscow appears to be keeping the door open to negotiations. The Kremlin said this week that Putin’s goals of preventing Ukraine from joining NATO and solidifying control of the four eastern regions it took from Ukraine will be accomplished militarily or diplomatically, with the country’s spy chief even suggesting those goals are within reach.
Regardless of whether Putin decides to escalate in Ukraine, President-elect Trump still appears determined to end the war quickly once he assumes office next month. “There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin,” he said on his social media platform Truth Social. He also said in an interview with NBC that he would be prepared to reduce military aid to Ukraine and withdraw the United States from NATO.
And in a new interview with TIME magazine, Trump criticized the Biden administration for allowing Ukraine to use U.S. long-range missiles to attack targets inside Russia.
“I disagree very vehemently with sending missiles hundreds of miles into Russia,” he said. “Why are we doing that? We're just escalating this war and making it worse. That should not have been allowed to be done. Now they're doing not only missiles, but they're doing other types of weapons. And I think that's a very big mistake, very big mistake.”
But while Trump appears to want a quick end to the war, he apparently doesn’t want the United States to play a primary role in implementing any such resolution. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that the outlines of Trump’s plan are starting to emerge based on his trip to Europe last week: “Europe would have to shoulder most of the burden of supporting Kyiv with troops to oversee a cease-fire and weapons to deter Russia.”
Russian troops are close to taking the strategic eastern city of Pokrovsk, according to Ukraine’s top general, the New York Timesreported. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky said “unconventional decisions” would have to be made to bolster Ukrainian defenses although he did not specify what such actions would be.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced the disbursement of a $20 billion loan to Ukraine this week. Former UK diplomat Ian Proud writes in Responsible Statecraft that “the issue of how this latest $20 billion handout to Ukraine will be paid seems entirely secondary to the point that it won’t be the end of U.S. funding to Ukraine.”
The Pentagon announced a new security assistance package for Ukraine worth nearly $1 billion this week as, according to the Associated Press, “the Biden administration rushes to spend all the congressionally approved money it has left to bolster Kyiv before President-elect Donald Trump takes office next month.”
From State Department Press Briefing on Dec. 9
Asked about U.S. pressure on Ukraine to expand the pool of eligible draftees from 25 years old to 18, spokesman Matthew Miller said, “the decisions about the composition of its military force are – those are decisions that the Ukrainians have to make for themselves. What we have made clear is that if they produce additional forces to join the fight, we and our allies will be ready to equip those forces and train those forces to enter battle.”
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Top image credit: U.S. President Donald Trump greets Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev at the White House in Washington, U.S. May 16, 2018. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
When President-elect Donald Trump starts his second term January 20, he will face a full foreign policy agenda, with wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, Taiwan tensions, and looming trade disputes with China, Mexico, and Canada.
At some point, he will hit the road on his “I’m back!” tour. Hopefully, he will consider stops in Central Asia in the not-too-distant future.
The “United States Strategy for Central Asia 2019-2025: Advancing Sovereignty and Economic Prosperity,” says all the right things like supporting regional sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity; promoting the rule of law; and encouraging U.S. investment. But it was released when U.S. forces still occupied neighboring Afghanistan. Eighteen months later, those forces were gone.
So, what should President Trump do about Central Asia?
First, show up!
No sitting U.S. president has ever visited Central Asia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made 73 visits to the five republics, while China’s Xi Jinping has made 13 visits to four of the republics since he ascended to the presidency in 2012.
President Joe Biden met the presidents of the five former Soviet republics – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan -- during last year’s “C5+1” meeting of the U.N. General Assembly. The unprecedented summit, while described by the president as “historic,” actually lasted less than one hour, making the gathering more of a photo-op. By the time everyone gave their remarks, it was on to the next event.
No matter how good your diplomats, nothing greases the wheels like a face-to-face meeting of the bosses.
Second, understand that the republics think multipolarity is a good thing.
The republics are finally free of the Russian Empire (1721-1917), Soviet empire (1917-1991), and the American empire (2001-2021) and are not interested in any arrangement that limits their ability to balance between the major powers, or play them off one against the other. And getting directions from faraway Washington and Brussels will remind them of the Soviet era.
The republics have language and business ties with Russia, have received significant investment from China, see Iran as a beckoning market and the host of needed transport routes, and are investing in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. The republics soberly understand they are all “neighbors forever” and have no interest in serving as launchpads for attacks on Iran or Afghanistan.
Third, hands off the culture.
The republics are old cultures, but young nations. They are still engaged in state formation and are open to technical support on various issues such as World Trade Organization accession, but they are not interested in changing their culture to accommodate foreigners. And if the West can’t restrain its tendency for social engineering, they can always deal with China, which is run by a Communist Party but isn’t exporting Communism.
Their concern with defending cultural sovereignty isn’t a reaction to Western culture and pushy NGOs. During the Soviet era, Moscow took a keen interest in Islam in Central Asia and made a concerted effort to control Islamic education and appoint imams in the interest of revolutionary Socialism in recognition of the religion’s continuing influence in the officially atheistic Soviet Union.
Fourth, Afghanistan is part of Central Asia.
The Central Asian countries are interested in reducing tensions and instability in the region, and that requires developing common approaches to maintaining peace in neighboring Afghanistan.
For example, the Trans-Afghan Railway, a 357-mile connection from Central Asia to the Pakistani seaports of Karachi, Gwadar, and Qasim, is a long-term contribution to stabilizing Afghanistan. In addition to contributing to the development of a sustainable Afghan economy, the project will hopefully create thousands of jobs and reduce the social base of support for extremist groups in the region.
The construction and operation of the corridor will provide opportunities for American contractors, equipment manufacturers, engineers, and logistics companies. Direct or indirect U.S. participation in the project will support job creation and income for American business, which should find favor with Trump.
And, as an alternative to China’s “One Belt, One Road” projects, the Trans-Afghan Railway will also serve to diversify Central Asian trade in world markets and reduce the region's dependence on Beijing, which also serves long-term U.S. interests.
Andrew Korybko, an American political analyst at the Peoples’ Friendship University in Moscow, notes that even partial completion (due to security challenges in Pakistan) of the railway may still benefit the republics if they can backhaul Afghanistan’s minerals for processing in Russia or China. (The republics themselves aren’t able to process the minerals due to water shortages.) Completion of the railway could also bring Afghan minerals to the Western markets via Pakistani ports, but that would require a relaxation of banking and financial sanctions against the Taliban.
In addition to Afghanistan’s mineral wealth, valued at over $1 trillion, the five Central Asian republics hold a significant share of the world’s critical minerals, including manganese, chromium, lead, zinc, and titanium. Some of the republics “sit among the world's top 20 producers for critical minerals which are most essential to the development of green technology,” according to British solicitors Herbert Smith Freehills.
Mostly-landlocked Central Asia has been “out of sight, out of mind” in assessments of supply chain opportunities and vulnerabilities as the world plans for the energy transition. China has recently banned the export to the U.S. of the critical minerals antimony, gallium and germanium, which are used in semiconductors, infrared technologies, and electric vehicle batteries, so Washington may need to use the C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue as a way to return to the region in order to secure long-term access to its mineral wealth.
Last, think about economics.
The U.S. does little trade with Central Asia, but the region is key to East-West trade between Europe and China, as it has been since before Marco Polo’s famous adventures.
The Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, is a trade route that links China and East Asia with Europe via Central Asia. This route has seen a substantial volume. It aims to reduce transit time between East Asia and Europe to as little as 12 days.
The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway finally started construction in October and will help isolated Kyrgyzstan “go out into the world.” China is also working with Kazakhstan to upgrade existing rail infrastructure and, in 2022, “the railway freight volume between China and Kazakhstan reached 23 million tons, marking a 20 percent year-on-year increase.”
Should the Trump administration be so inclined, there are also two major opportunities to link Washington’s crusading impulse to significant environmental efforts in Central Asia: the drying up of the Aral Sea and methane emissions in Turkmenistan.
The desertification of the Aral Sea, now known as the Aralkum Desert, has had profound economic effects on the region: fishing industry collapse and resulting widespread unemployment, and agricultural decline and increased salinization of the soil, not to mention adverse health effects, including increased infant mortality, growth retardation and anemia in children, respiratory disease, and elevated occurrences of cancers. The environmental and economic hardships have forced people to migrate in search of better living conditions, leading to depopulation of the region, further economic decline, and pressure for jobs and housing in urban centers.
Turkmenistan is a significant emitter of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Methane leaks from Turkmenistan's gas fields are substantial: over 2.9 million tons of methane, equivalent to more than 403 million tons of carbon dioxide, more than the annual carbon emissions of the United Kingdom. Given Washington’s own experience with reducing methane emissions, the U.S. could offer meaningful technical assistance.
While Trump has regularly bashed the United Nations, he might now consider partnership with the Central Asian governments through the UN Multi-Partner Human Security Trust Fund for the Aral Sea Region, the Global Methane Pledge, and UN Water to flow the money, technology, and political support needed to help the region repair the adverse effects of these environmental catastrophes.
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Top photo credit: Candidate for the presidency of Romania, Calin Georgescu, and his wife, Cristela, arrive at a polling station for parliamentary elections, Dec. 1, 2024 in Mogosoaia, Romania. Georgescu one the first round in the Nov. 24 presidential elections but those elections results have been canceled (Shutterstock/LCV)
The Romanian Constitutional Court’s unprecedented decision to annul the first round results in the country’s Nov. 24 presidential election and restart the contest from scratch raises somber questions about Romanian democracy at a time when the European Union is being swept by populist, eurosceptic waves.
The court, citing declassified intelligence reports, ruled that candidate Călin Georgescu unlawfully benefitted from a foreign-backed social media campaign that propelled him from an obscure outsider to the frontrunner by a comfortable margin. Romanian intelligence has identified the foreign backer as Russia. Authorities claim that Georgescu’s popularity was artificially inflated by tens of thousands of TikTok accounts that promoted his candidacy in violation of Romanian election laws.
Meanwhile, the European Commission has ordered TikTok to "preserve internal documents and information" related to its recommendation system, adding that it has not yet decided whether TikTok has violated its content moderation policies.
The ruling follows a court-ordered recount of the first round that found no irregularities or evidence of systemic voter fraud. It is not clear what new evidence emerged between the court’s decision to confirm the first round results and the subsequent annulment.
It has not been established even cursorily, let alone to a degree sufficient to pass for legally admissible evidence, that this alleged social media coordination had a specific electoral impact large enough to change or even significantly impact the results of the first round of voting.
It is, after all, not unusual for outsider candidates with little to no name recognition to reap the windfall from widespread anti-establishment sentiment in an election cycle where, as it appears, the more well-known anti-establishment candidates were too distrusted or disliked to hold on to the protest vote.
In a two-round voting system, the second round is itself a built-in corrective that gives voters a separate chance to assess the candidates.
The Constitutional Court, by upending this process, has done more to erode voters’ faith and confidence in the country’s democratic institutions than anything Moscow could have hoped to achieve through its hybrid influence operations. This move has lent credence to Georgescu’s anti-establishment, populist message in a way that is likely to further boost his electoral appeal, making it tactically ill-advised in addition to all the other procedural concerns that have been heaped on it.
It is not insignificant in light of these political considerations that Georgescu’s opponent in the second round, Elena Lasconi, has forcefully opposed the annulment.
“Today is the moment when the Romanian state has trampled on democracy,” she said. “We should have gone ahead with the vote. We should have respected the will of the Romanian people, whether we like it or not, legally and legitimately, nine million Romanian citizens, both at home and in the diaspora, have expressed their preference for a particular candidate by voting.”
There is an unmistakable geopolitical specter looming over Romania’s constitutional crisis. Georgescu is an avowed eurosceptic who — like his Slovakian, Hungarian, and to some extent Bulgarian counterparts — has been critical of NATO’s approach to the Ukraine war at a time when the French and German governments are facing major challenges of their own.
These headwinds augur not just a potential European peeling away from the Biden-led united front on Ukraine, but a larger shake-up in the transatlantic relationship both Washington and Brussels should tackle frankly and proactively, not as a fire to be put out but as an opportunity to place the U.S.-EU relations on a more sustainable strategic footing.
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