Follow us on social

Shutterstock_1007892214-scaled

Hardline Forces in Iran are Poised to Gain Strength

With parliamentary elections upcoming, most analysts in Iran believe they will favor hard-line forces associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Analysis | Middle East

TEHRAN – While an atmosphere of national solidarity prevailed after the U.S. assassination of Major General Qassem Soleimani, last week’s accidental downing of the Ukrainian airliner and its aftermath have provoked a popular crisis of confidence which is having a profound impact on the relationship between the authorities and Iran’s citizens.

With elections to the parliament (Majlis) just over a month away, various factions are scrambling for advantage, even as the evident distrust between the citizens and the regime, as illustrated by the continuing demonstrations in the major cities, suggests that voter turnout is likely to be sharply diminished.

If that in fact is what materializes on February 21, most analysts here believe it will favor hard-line forces associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), whose Quds Force was headed by Soleimani.

Already, Wednesday’s announcement by reformist leaders that 90 percent of their candidates have been pre-emptively disqualified to run by executive and election-monitoring committees has effectively eliminated challengers to mainly hardliner candidates. This in itself will deal a severe blow to the regime’s democratic legitimacy.

While the latest protests recall the unrest in November, in which more than 300 people are believed to have been killed, the immediate causes are quite distinct. In November, the disturbances were triggered by the abrupt tripling of gasoline prices, while the past week’s demonstrations, which have been relatively peaceful to date, were provoked by the government’s secrecy and the three-day delay in announcing the cause of the airline crash, in which all 176 people aboard were killed.

From the day of the incident, speculation about a missile hitting the plane began mounting among Iranian users of social media. But the Iranian authorities initially rejected the claim, instead insisting that technical problems with the aircraft were responsible. On January 11, the General Staff of the Armed Forces confirmed that the Ukrainian aircraft had been shot down by the IRGC’s air defense system as a result of human error.

The admission prompted demonstrations in Tehran and other cities across Iran beginning the same afternoon. Protesters shouted harsh slogans against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the IRGC, demanding, among other things, the resignation of the Supreme Leader as the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces. Protests, many of them centered on university campuses, have continued since.

After Khamenei himself demanded an immediate investigation into the incident Saturday, all media, and both moderate and hard-line activists and prominent figures criticized the initial cover-up, while reformists called for the dismissal and punishment of those responsible for the tragic event. President Hassan Rouhani repeated the demand for a full investigation Tuesday.

Supporters of Rouhani also criticized the fact that he had been kept in the dark about the cause of the crash until Friday evening. Rumors immediately circulated that the president would resign his office, although a news outlet close to the IRGC rejected such speculation almost immediately. There was little doubt, however, that the chain of events had exposed the presidency’s relative weakness within the regime.

While some Western media speculated that the Soleimani’s death and the IRGC’s handling of the plane disaster could enhance the position of Rouhani and his foreign minister, Javad Zarif, that assessment appears unlikely at the moment. Hardliners in the regime have been arguing that Rouhani’s failure to withdraw Iran from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in recent months emboldened Trump and his advisers to take stronger action, culminating in Soleimani’s assassination. The fact that the three European parties to the Iran deal are now threatening to “snap back” multilateral sanctions against Iran is likely to further strengthen the hard-line position in advance of the elections.

Meanwhile, the political atmosphere here appears increasingly polarized. While 66 prominent reformist activists called for de-escalation between Iran and the U.S. in an open letter (link in Persian) after Soleiman’s assassination, former IRGC commander Hassan Abbasi, the head of a hard-line IRGC-linked think tank in Tehran, threatened to kill reformists in the streets and chop them to pieces, in retaliation for Soleimani’s killing. The ultra-hardline newspaper, Kayhan, wrote in its editorial that those who promote de-escalation and flexibility must be treated like traitors and infiltrators.

As calls in social media for continuing protests persisted into this week, hard-liners and Iranian state television accused demonstrators of using the airline disaster as a pretext for disruption by “seditionists.” As such, at the end of a closed parliamentary session on Sunday attended by the IRGC commander-in-chief, Sardar Salami, the majority of MPs present in Parliament (186) approved a resolution in support of the Guards, insisting that “they will not allow a mistake by a member of the family to be used by the enemy.”

While the current protests are not as widespread as those in November, their continuation is almost certain to further polarize the nation and may even threaten the holding of the February 21 elections, a possibility that, if realized, would be unprecedented in the Islamic Republic’s 41-year history.

In Islam, mourning for the dead takes 40 days, and the 40th day is very important. If there are widespread protests on the 40th day of the death of the Ukrainian airliner victims, which will be just four days before the election, the authorities may decide that the situation is too insecure or too emotionally and politically fraught for the voting to be carried out.

But, even if the elections are held as scheduled, given the calls for a boycott in order to dramatize the growing gap between the regime and its people, turnout can be expected to be low; a likelihood that would favor hard-liners despite their relatively small numbers in the electorate as a whole.

Nonetheless, the regime may press forward, even at the risk of an embarrassingly low turnout which could be disguised by manipulation of the ballots and selective broadcasting of polling stations where large numbers of IRGC and their Basiji supporters line up to vote.

Indeed, since the largely working-class protests of January 2017, there has been a fundamental shift in the nature of the protests in Iran in that the opposition is now directed against the establishment as a whole rather than specific policies.

This was also witnessed in the protests staged last November, even though the immediate cause hit the working classes disproportionately. In the most recent protests, the slogans are directed against the unelected entities of the establishment, notably the Supreme Leader and the IRGC.

The recent disqualification of reformist candidates by the executive committees and election monitoring committees can only strengthen such sentiment among the population. Even Rouhani publicly criticized that action, insisting that it called into question whether the election could be considered serious.

If a boycott movement succeeds, the next Iranian parliament will likely be dominated by hard-line forces empowered to diminish the domestic political space and further isolate Iran from the international community.


TEHRAN, IRAN - JANUARY 05: Pro-government demonstrators march in support of the regime after the weekly Friday Prayers on January 05, 2018 in Tehran, Iran.
Analysis | Middle East
Trump and Keith Kellogg
Top photo credit: U.S. President Donald Trump and Keith Kellogg (now Trump's Ukraine envoy) in 2017. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY

Trump's silence on loss of Ukraine lithium territory speaks volumes

Europe

Last week, Russian military forces seized a valuable lithium field in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, the latest success of Moscow’s grinding summer offensive.

The lithium deposit in question is considered rather small by industry analysts, but is said to be a desirable prize nonetheless due to the concentration and high-quality of its ore. In other words, it is just the kind of asset that the Trump administration seemed eager to exploit when it signed its much heralded minerals agreement with Ukraine earlier this year.

keep readingShow less
Is the US now funding the bloodbath at Gaza aid centers?
Top photo credit: Palestinians walk to collect aid supplies from the U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, May 29, 2025. REUTERS/Hatem Khaled/File Photo

Is the US now funding the bloodbath at Gaza aid centers?

Middle East

Many human rights organizations say it should shut down. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have killed hundreds of Palestinians at or around its aid centers. And yet, the U.S. has committed no less than $30 million toward the controversial, Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).

As famine-like conditions grip Gaza, the GHF says it has given over 50 million meals to Palestinians at its four aid centers in central and southern Gaza Strip since late May. These centers are operated by armed U.S. private contractors, and secured by IDF forces present at or near them.

keep readingShow less
mali
Heads of state of Mali, Assimi Goita, Niger, General Abdourahamane Tiani and Burkina Faso, Captain Ibrahim Traore, pose for photographs during the first ordinary summit of heads of state and governments of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in Niamey, Niger July 6, 2024. REUTERS/Mahamadou Hamidou//File Photo

Post-coup juntas across the Sahel face serious crises

Africa

In Mali, General Assimi Goïta, who took power in a 2020 coup, now plans to remain in power through at least the end of this decade, as do his counterparts in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger. As long-ruling juntas consolidate power in national capitals, much of the Sahelian terrain remains out of government control.

Recent attacks on government security forces in Djibo (Burkina Faso), Timbuktu (Mali), and Eknewane (Niger) have all underscored the depth of the insecurity. The Sahelian governments face a powerful threat from jihadist forces in two organizations, Jama‘at Nusrat al-Islam wa-l-Muslimin (the Group for Supporting Islam and Muslims, JNIM, which is part of al-Qaida) and the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP). The Sahelian governments also face conventional rebel challengers and interact, sometimes in cooperation and sometimes in tension, with various vigilantes and community-based armed groups.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.