Follow us on social

U.s._army_and_iraqi_soldiers_tal_afar_iraq_sept._11_2005

Long-Term Gains Far Outweigh Short-Term Costs from Withdrawing the U.S. Military from the Middle East

Leaving militarily does not mean leaving all together. The United States should continue to pursue its Middle East interests diplomatically and economically.

Analysis | Middle East

President Donald Trump and his administration came into office promising to stop “endless wars” in the Middle East. But like his predecessors, the president has found himself walking back this important strategic objective. Why? Because he seems to believe the best option for the United States in the Middle East comes down to pain and loss no matter which policy we choose: military withdrawal or continued forward deployment. In choosing the shorter horn of this dilemma, there are two important points to consider.

First, if you think about it, the United States’ primary foreign policy after World War II was to prevent World War III; and given political scientists’ analyses of the causes of WWII, that meant a combination of focus on military forward deployment (in Europe and Japan in particular), and economic stability (no trade wars, and broad investment in global recovery and development in which the United States would bear a disproportionate share of the burden). So in an important sense, “forward deployment” — keeping large numbers of U.S. armed forces stationed abroad — became an unquestioned pillar of U.S. grand strategy and national security. Forward deployment dovetails with what historian and Quincy Institute President Andrew Bacevich, among others, has rightly identified as “American exceptionalism.” But its success depended critically on an adherence to key pillars of U.S. legitimacy: the rule of law, multilateralism, and the use of force as a last resort.

Our research on U.S. military interventions at the Center for Strategic Studies has made it clear that this reliance on the use of force as a last resort, and with it, our legitimacy, have vanished. Now even our allies have come to view America as a bully.

This deeply troubling trend is only partly a consequence of the increased pace of U.S. armed deployments abroad (which continue to rise). It is due to the increasing lawlessness and unilateralism which underpins more recent U.S. military interventions. For example, the U.S. assault on Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 2003 was in violation of international law; as was the U.S. drone strike which assassinated Iranian General Qassem Soleimani.

Second, a combination of American exceptionalism and its overwhelming military pre-eminence has led to an increasing tendency to use force first, and unilaterally. Just consider that one-quarter of all U.S. interventions since the country’s founding over 200 years ago have happened in the last two decades. This is in large measure a result of hawkish and ignorant characterizations of “Islam” as a violent religion following 9/11. President George W. Bush responded by shifting long-standing U.S. practice of diplomatic, economic, and military action to anchor U.S. national security, to the use of military action alone without allied support. The Department of Defense expanded, while the Department of State withered, giving rise to what I have called kinetic diplomacy.

Keep in mind that the original justification for permanently stationing large numbers of U.S. armed forces abroad was to protect our former enemies from conquest by the other victor of WWII: the Soviet Union. But as a long-term strategy it suffered from a serious defect: assuming that nations (e.g. French and Germans) would always be hostile to one another, U.S. military occupation became institutionalized. This had the effect of preventing security self-reliance: as NATO’s first Secretary General Lord Ismay put it, the Atlantic Alliance’s key value would be “to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.”

This historical context largely explains President Trump’s current dilemma, one that has afflicted each of his predecessors going back to Harry S. Truman: if we stay in the Middle East, we cannot win. Yet if we go, the peoples we came to help will suffer certain abuse; and we leave vast territories open to the recovery and expansion of brutal groups such as ISIS. But which is the shorter horn? Leaving will indeed be costly in the short term, but long-term remains the only option for increasing U.S. national security.

If the U.S. leaves Afghanistan and Iraq militarily, bad things will happen. ISIS will recover and expand, at least initially; and about this we should suffer no illusions. But Americans should remember that we are not the only ones with an interest in defeating ISIS. The coalition in Syria worked precisely because everyone agreed that defeating ISIS was critical. We are also not the only ones capable of defeating ISIS. We have become a nation that does too much work for those we hope to aid, and in doing so, we inadvertently prevent them from gaining the capacity to do the work themselves. We did this in Vietnam and Iraq and we’re still doing it in Afghanistan. In addition, the trillions we wasted in our well-intentioned efforts to help oppressed peoples in Afghanistan and Iraq have not only resulted in sustained and profound underinvestment in American education and infrastructure, but have presented our real adversary, the Peoples Republic of China, an historically unprecedented opportunity to supplant us as a world leader; with ominous consequences.

Painful as it is, our best strategy is to leave the Middle East — especially Iraq — and allow its states to rebuild their own capacity to defeat groups like ISIS. That capacity may not result in governments which are democratic or respect the rule of law. But then the United States itself has not proven exemplary in either regard in the past two decades, and this lack of U.S. legitimacy further weakens arguments for either staying deployed abroad, or intervening militarily in others’ affairs. Recent history reveals we are incapable of defeating insurgencies and restoring stability.

Leaving militarily does not mean leaving all together. The United States should continue to pursue its Middle East interests diplomatically and economically. It may be that the real defect with our engagement in the Middle East in the decades since 9/11 is that it has been too ignorant and too blunt. Recall that President Bush’s pick to lead Iraqi reconstruction in 2003 was L. Paul Bremmer III: a man with little diplomatic experience, and little knowledge of the history and politics of the Middle East. If the U.S. returned to leading with diplomacy, either the use of armed force would be unnecessary, or, because we would know whom to target and with what mix of military assets, our resort to armed force would be much more effective. Rebuilding the State Department and returning to the use of force as a last resort will also have the critical effect of restoring our legitimacy at home and abroad. That’s why as painful as it will be in the short term, withdrawing our armed forces from the Middle East is the shorter horn in this difficult national security dilemma.


50911-N-9885M-300 U.S. Army and Iraqi soldiers cross an intersection during a routine security patrol in downtown Tal Afar, Iraq ... DoD photo by Petty Officer 1st Class Alan D. Monyelle, U.S. Navy.
Analysis | Middle East
POGO The Bunker
Top image credit: Project on Government Oversight

Bombers astray! Washington's priorities go off course

Military Industrial Complex

The Bunker appears originally at the Project on Government Oversight and is republished here with permission.


keep readingShow less
Trump Zelensky
Top photo credit: Joshua Sukoff / Shutterstock.com

Blob exploiting Trump's anger with Putin, risking return to Biden's war

Europe

Donald Trump’s recent outburst against Vladimir Putin — accusing the Russian leader of "throwing a pile of bullsh*t at us" and threatening devastating new sanctions — might be just another Trumpian tantrum.

The president is known for abrupt reversals. Or it could be a bargaining tactic ahead of potential Ukraine peace talks. But there’s a third, more troubling possibility: establishment Republican hawks and neoconservatives, who have been maneuvering to hijack Trump’s “America First” agenda since his return to office, may be exploiting his frustration with Putin to push for a prolonged confrontation with Russia.

Trump’s irritation is understandable. Ukraine has accepted his proposed ceasefire, but Putin has refused, making him, in Trump’s eyes, the main obstacle to ending the war.

Putin’s calculus is clear. As Ted Snider notes in the American Conservative, Russia is winning on the battlefield. In June, it captured more Ukrainian territory and now threatens critical Kyiv’s supply lines. Moscow also seized a key lithium deposit critical to securing Trump’s support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone strikes have intensified.

Putin seems convinced his key demands — Ukraine’s neutrality, territorial concessions in the Donbas and Crimea, and a downsized Ukrainian military — are more achievable through war than diplomacy.

Yet his strategy empowers the transatlantic “forever war” faction: leaders in Britain, France, Germany, and the EU, along with hawks in both main U.S. parties. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claims that diplomacy with Russia is “exhausted.” Europe’s war party, convinced a Russian victory would inevitably lead to an attack on NATO (a suicidal prospect for Moscow), is willing to fight “to the last Ukrainian.” Meanwhile, U.S. hawks, including liberal interventionist Democrats, stoke Trump’s ego, framing failure to stand up to Putin’s defiance as a sign of weakness or appeasement.

Trump long resisted this pressure. Pragmatism told him Ukraine couldn’t win, and calling it “Biden’s war” was his way of distancing himself, seeking a quick exit to refocus on China, which he has depicted as Washington’s greater foreign threat. At least as important, U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine has been unpopular with his MAGA base.

But his June strikes on Iran may signal a hawkish shift. By touting them as a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program (despite Tehran’s refusal so far to abandon uranium enrichment), Trump may be embracing a new approach to dealing with recalcitrant foreign powers: offer a deal, set a deadline, then unleash overwhelming force if rejected. The optics of “success” could tempt him to try something similar with Russia.

This pivot coincides with a media campaign against restraint advocates within the administration like Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon policy chief who has prioritized China over Ukraine and also provoked the opposition of pro-Israel neoconservatives by warning against war with Iran. POLITICO quoted unnamed officials attacking Colby for wanting the U.S. to “do less in the world.” Meanwhile, the conventional Republican hawk Marco Rubio’s influence grows as he combines the jobs of both secretary of state and national security adviser.

What Can Trump Actually Do to Russia?
 

Nuclear deterrence rules out direct military action — even Biden, far more invested in Ukraine than Trump, avoided that risk. Instead, Trump ally Sen.Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), another establishment Republican hawk, is pushing a 500% tariff on nations buying Russian hydrocarbons, aiming to sever Moscow from the global economy. Trump seems supportive, although the move’s feasibility and impact are doubtful.

China and India are key buyers of Russian oil. China alone imports 12.5 million barrels daily. Russia exports seven million barrels daily. China could absorb Russia’s entire output. Beijing has bluntly stated it “cannot afford” a Russian defeat, ensuring Moscow’s economic lifeline remains open.

The U.S., meanwhile, is ill-prepared for a tariff war with China. When Trump imposed 145% tariffs, Beijing retaliated by cutting off rare earth metals exports, vital to U.S. industry and defense. Trump backed down.

At the G-7 summit in Canada last month, the EU proposed lowering price caps on Russian oil from $60 a barrel to $45 a barrel as part of its 18th sanctions package against Russia. Trump rejected the proposal at the time but may be tempted to reconsider, given his suggestion that more sanctions may be needed. Even if Washington backs the measure now, however, it is unlikely to cripple Russia’s war machine.

Another strategy may involve isolating Russia by peeling away Moscow’s traditionally friendly neighbors. Here, Western mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan isn’t about peace — if it were, pressure would target Baku, which has stalled agreements and threatened renewed war against Armenia. The real goal is to eject Russia from the South Caucasus and create a NATO-aligned energy corridor linking Turkey to Central Asia, bypassing both Russia and Iran to their detriment.

Central Asia itself is itself emerging as a new battleground. In May 2025, the EU has celebrated its first summit with Central Asian nations in Uzbekistan, with a heavy focus on developing the Middle Corridor, a route for transportation of energy and critical raw materials that would bypass Russia. In that context, the EU has committed €10 billion in support of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

keep readingShow less
Syria sanctions
Top image credit: People line up to buy bread, after Syria's Bashar al-Assad was ousted, in Douma, on the outskirts of Damascus, Syria December 23, 2024. REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra

Lifting sanctions on Syria exposes their cruel intent

Middle East

On June 30, President Trump signed an executive order terminating the majority of U.S. sanctions on Syria. The move, which would have been unthinkable mere months ago, fulfilled a promise he made at an investment forum in Riyadh in May.“The sanctions were brutal and crippling,” he had declared to an audience of primarily Saudi businessmen. Lifting them, he said, will “give Syria a chance at greatness.”

The significance of this statement lies not solely in the relief that it will bring to the Syrian people. His remarks revealed an implicit but rarely admitted truth: sanctions — often presented as a peaceful alternative to war — have been harming the Syrian people all along.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.