The U.S. military has been bombing two countries in the last several days — Syria and Yemen — though details are scarce and the mainstream media has given it very little attention. U.S. forces have also been attacked again in Syria, though this additional headline also went under the radar.
The Associated Press has reported that the U.S. struck nine targets in two locations in Syria on Monday, allegedly targeting Iran-aligned parties that previously attacked U.S. military personnel. Namely, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) posted on X that the strikes were conducted to “degrade the Iranian backed groups’ ability to plan and launch future attacks on U.S. and Coalition forces who are in the region to conduct D-ISIS operations.”
The Pentagon did not provide further details about both parties’ attacks or their respective locations by Monday evening, according to AP. (Update: CENTCOM posted on X Tuesday night that the U.S. struck an Iranian-supported weapons and logistics headquarters facility in response to an attack on U.S. personnel at Patrol Base Shaddadi.)
The U.S. has struck several Syrian targets over the last year. Notably, a previous U.S. attack on Syrian government military posts near the Iraq border killed 18 Syrian fighters back in August. In February, the U.S. hit 85 Iran-aligned targets in airstrikes in Syria and Iraq to retaliate against a previous attack on American troops. And U.S. ally Israel has also increasingly targeted Syria since the start of the Israel-Hamas war last year, striking military targets in the Aleppo and Idlib regions of Syria over the weekend.
Moreover, the U.S. also struck Yemen on Sunday and Monday over Houthi strikes against Israeli forces, hitting parts of Yemeni capital Sanaa and the northern Amran governorate.
These tit-for-tat attacks in Syria and beyond could ultimately escalate military tensions in a region already burdened by two major conflict flash points in Gaza and Lebanon. And such conditions leave U.S. troops in the area vulnerable to attack.
“It would be a travesty to allow an incident like Tower 22 to repeat,” noted Quincy Institute Middle East fellow Adam Weinstein, who co-wrote a report with QI’s Steve Simon about the perils of keeping troops in Syria and Iraq. He referred to the attack that killed three U.S. soldiers stationed in Jordan to assist the efforts in Syria, in January.
“With each strike and counterstrike, the cycle of tit-for-tat in Syria endures. But one lucky strike could cost U.S. lives in a mission with shrinking gains.”
photo : U.S. President Joe Biden attends a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as he visits Israel amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Tel Aviv, Israel, October 18, 2023.
A group of 60 national, state, and local organizations sent a letter to President Biden on Monday urging him to “hold Israel accountable to U.S. law [by] ending arms sales to Israel to protect U.S. interests, achieve a ceasefire, protect civilians, increase aid access in Gaza, and work towards a stable future for the region.”
The policy, humanitarian, and faith-based organizations — which include Amnesty International, the Friends Committee on National Legislation, and the Quincy Institute, publisher of Responsible Statecraft — expressed disappointment with Biden’s policy of “unconditional support of Israel paired with empty threats,” saying the policy has not yielded any meaningful results and serves to harm America’s global reputation.
Rather than curbing Israel’s actions, the signatories say the Biden administration has enabled it to bomb hospitals, schools, and residential areas, block humanitarian aid, and kill tens of thousands of civilians, journalists, and aid workers, all at the expense of the taxpayer.
The organizations say a letter sent by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to Israeli Defense Secretary Yoav Gallant asking Israel to allow humanitarian aid in Gaza “provides an opportunity to course correct U.S. policy” and enforce U.S. law which would require the United States to withhold aid until humanitarian assistance is delivered.
“The longer the U.S. allows its power and global standing to be undermined by this conflict, the more cost the United States will bear in reputation, taxpayer dollars, and possibly servicemember and citizens’ lives,” they write. “In your final months in office, we urge you to do everything in your power to end U.S. military aid to Israel to stop Israel’s assaults on civilians and maintain regional stability.”
keep readingShow less
Top photo credit: Sailors lift ammunition during an on-load aboard the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS William P. Lawrence (DDG 110). William P. Lawrence is underway on its first operational deployment to the western Pacific region as part of the Nimitz Strike Group Surface Action Group. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Carla Ocampo) File# 130126-N-ZQ631-628
Regardless of the merits or demerits of the Biden administration’s policies on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and the wider Middle East, it has become clear that the United States has been using and giving away its missiles faster than it can produce them.
It is also clear that from the perspective of missile inventories and production, the United States is far from prepared to engage confidently in a sustained direct conflict with a peer competitor like China.
This is demonstrated by the fact that U.S. missile and artillery shell reserves are currently inadequate to provide Ukraine with what it needs to keep its missile defense systems supplied with interceptors. Indeed, the inability of the United States and its NATO allies to provide enough air defense missiles — a.k.a. interceptors — has made it easier for Russia to attack and destroy key military targets, as well as cripple Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
This missile deficit parallels the well-documented lack of U.S. artillery shell production that has enabled Russia to increase the rate at which it’s taking control over territories in Ukraine today.
While the United States is not going to run out of missiles tomorrow, its missile inventory, both offensive and defensive, is dwindling. Further, although the U.S. government has not disclosed how many interceptor missiles have been given to Ukraine to supply the billions of dollars’ worth of NASAM, Hawk, and Patriot air defense systems Washington sent there, we do know that it has not been enough.
We also know that between Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, some 740 Patriot PAC-2/PAC-3 missiles per year will be made in 2025, with production theoretically ramping up to roughly 1,100 missiles by 2027. That sounds like a lot, but since February 22, 2022, Ukraine has faced attacks from thousands of drones and missiles.
Moreover, while our proxy war on Russia has strained our resources, an outbreak of hostilities with China could easily increase the burn rate of our ship-based missiles by an order of magnitude over what we have been seeing in the Middle East. And speaking of our supply of ship-based missiles, as of Feb 1, 2024, the U.S. Navy had used at least 100 of its standard series class missiles in the Red Sea.
A July 2024 report reveals that the Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier strike group expended 155 multi-million-dollar standard series missiles, 135 multi-million-dollar Tomahawk cruise missiles, 60 multi-million dollar air-to-air missiles, and an additional 420 air-to-surface munitions with a cumulative cost likely in the hundreds of millions of dollars And this missile expenditure does not include the missiles used by warships not attached to that strike group during this period.
Naturally, since July, the Navy has continued to use overpriced, ridiculously expensive missiles to shoot down cheap Houthis drones and missiles. Adding to our Navy’s missile burn rate, on at least two occasions, April and October of this year, our warships used SM-2 and SM-3 missiles to protect Israel from Iranian ballistic missiles and drones. Additionally, since the beginning of the year, the U.S. Navy has been using the much more expensive SM-6 missiles, along with SM-2s, in its Red Sea operations.
We don’t really know how many missiles have been used to date, but what has been publicly disclosed should be viewed as a very conservative estimate. In addition, we don’t know the exact inventory levels of critical weapons, as such information could be of great use to our enemies. However, according to a report by the Heritage Foundation, up through 2023, the Pentagon had procured roughly 12,000 Standard Missile-2s (SM-2), 400 Standard Missile-3s (SM-3), 1,500 Standard Missile-6s (SM-6), and 9,000 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM). During this same period, the U.S. Navy has expended at least 2,800 Standard Missiles and 2,900 TLAMs. And these figures do not include the previously mentioned expenditures of the last year or so.
Shedding more light on roughly what our current reserves of missiles looks like, the Wall Street Journal estimates that when training exercises and the retirement of older weapons are taken into account, only about 4,000 TLAM remained as of 2020 and since then the U.S. has only produced another 250 or so TLAMs. Consequently, with large numbers of TLAMS, SM-2 and other SM-type missiles having been expended in 2023 and 2024, our nation’s missile stockpile continues to be depleted.
Put another way, the entirety of our Navy’s warships, not including quad packs of shorter-ranged air defense missiles, can carry about 10,000 missiles in their vertical launch systems that can be used for wide-area defense or long-range attacks. So, as things stand, once we expend the full complement of our VLS launched missiles, we are roughly 3,000 missiles short of being able to fully replenish our ships.
Yet another aspect of how much stress could potentially be placed on our missile inventories is that, while we do have a relatively large number of SM-2 missiles, we only have some 400 SM-3 class missiles, the defense system most capable of destroying powerful ballistic missiles before they can threaten population centers or military targets.
And in April of this year, two of our Arleigh Burke guided missile destroyers used four to seven of these scarce SM-3 missiles to attempt the interception of ballistic missiles fired by Iran. Each of the SM-3s, depending on the model, costs between $13 and $28 million. Hence, that one engagement cost U.S. taxpayers in the neighborhood of $52M to $196M.
Of course, U.S. supplementation of Israel’s defenses has not been limited to expending shipborne missiles. On October 21, Israel received one of the United States’ seven THAAD air defense systems. Each of these systems costs over a billion dollars, and each THAAD interceptor missile costs $13 million. Given that the full load for the THAAD system we sent to Israel is 48 missiles, it is safe to assume Israel has received a minimum of $600 million dollars’ worth of interceptors.
For reference, as of December of 2023, the U.S. had built some 800 of these interceptors. This means if Israel ends up receiving a few reloads, we could easily see 25 percent of our THAAD interceptors inventory consumed at a replacement cost of $2.5 billion.
What’s more, as of 2023, Iran is believed to have over 3,000 ballistic missiles and many thousands of drones. Consequently, Iran could launch even larger attacks in the near future, necessitating the deployment of additional U.S. systems to supplement Israel’s strained air defenses to an even greater extent.
However, all of the above would amount to chump change should the United States become embroiled in a war with China. If such a disaster were to occur, Washington could easily find itself blowing through its missile stocks in a matter of months or even weeks. Indeed, a Center for Strategic and International Studies report found that, in order to counter China, the United States could end up expending 5,000 long-range missiles in just 3 weeks.
Consequently, with our defense industrial base already strained, it seems obvious that we should be doing everything we can to prevent escalation of the ongoing conflicts and instead be working to achieve a genuine, sustainable peace in the Middle East, as well as working towards a peace in the Ukraine war.
According exit polls on Election Day, 12% of the voters in this presidential election had served in the U.S. military and 65% of them said they voted for Donald Trump, while 34% said they voted for Kamala Harris.
We still need a breakdown of age to see if this was generational. Some suggest that younger Republicans, especially more recent veterans, are among the biggest resisters to the War Party orthodoxies on Capitol Hill, including now-Vice President-elect JD Vance, who served as a Marine in Iraq. Former Democratic Congresswoman and Iraq War veteran, Tulsi Gabbard, who campaigned for Trump and recently turned Republican, has also been a fierce critic of Biden's Ukraine War policy and Washington's militarism overall.
In the last weeks of the campaign Trump dusted off his 2016 case against forever wars, criticizing Harris for embracing Iraq war supporters, particularly Liz Cheney.
Tuesday's results are certainly not an anomaly. According to a report issued by the Pew Research Center in September, about 61% of registered voters who said they had served in the military or military reserves were planning to vote for Trump while 37% backed Harris. This tracks with past elections. According to Pew, 60% of veterans voted for Trump in 2020, while 39% backed President Joe Biden.
A survey of the Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America (IAVA) membership this fall, however, said they were "evenly split" on the question of Harris and Trump. IAVA, which is non-partisan, says 90 percent of the 1,906 respondents deployed to Iraq or Afghanistan during those wars. The demographics of this particular group: 66% have earned a bachelor's degree or more, and 55% say they don't affiliate with any party. According to the poll, these voters were going 43% for Harris, 42% for Trump, and 15% for a third party candidate.
But in 2016, veterans in counties across several key swing states helped to put Trump over the top. Though Republicans had won these counties handily before, Trump outperformed predecessors like Sen. John McCain, a veteran of the Vietnam War, in counties with big military installations. Analysts over the years have said that Trump was able to tap into frustration in military communities with the the failing wars, endless deployment cycles, and the way veterans are treated once they get home. Trump was able to get these votes despite Democrats' accusations that he disparaged Gold Star families and McCain.
If the exit polls are to be believed, he was able to connect even more with this part of the electorate this year, despite hundreds of former national security officials and senior military officers signing a letter contending that Harris was the better candidate. In the waning days of the election, Trump's own former generals and top staff who served in the military called him unfit to serve and a fascist.
"It is hard to overstate how much righteous anger there is within the GWOT veteran community over the foreign and domestic policy failures of the last 23 years. Almost everyone has lost friends or family, experienced first hand the failures of the VA, and watched those responsible for the sustaining the system that perpetuated our foreign misadventures escape accountability," charged Dan Caldwell, Public Policy Advisor for Defense Priorities, and an Iraq War veteran.
"By doing things like campaigning with Liz Cheney and touting the endorsement of her father, Vice President Harris positioned herself as the defender of the people and policies that have inflicted so much pain on the veteran community. It is therefore not hard to see why the majority of the veteran community went with Trump."
Did younger vets really put more stock in Trump, and if so, was it for the reasons Caldwell claims? As more data comes in, perhaps we will know more about Trump's bump (and the Democrat's losses) among this important segment of the American electorate.
Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.