Follow us on social

google cta
Diplomacy Watch Donald Trump Putin Zelensky

Diplomacy Watch: Russia, Ukraine take spat to media

Meanwhile, US lawmakers want sanctions so bad they can taste them

Analysis | QiOSK
google cta
google cta

Despite prospects for direct diplomatic talks on June 2 in Istanbul, Russia and Ukraine remain in a spat over the peace memorandums outlining prerequisites for ending the war to be discussed there.

Russian FM Sergey Lavrov originally proposed the talks on Wednesday. By Thursday, Russia said it had not received a reply from Kyiv about attending. Instead, prominent Ukrainian officials are publicly pressing Russia to produce a peace memorandum ahead of the possible talks, like it already has done.

“Why wait until Monday?” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha asked on X Wednesday. “If the Russians have finally elaborated on their “memorandum” — after ten days of reflections and attacks — it can be passed to us right away. We anticipate that the Russian side will not derail the next meeting and will immediately submit their proposals for our consideration, as previously agreed.”

“Only a well-prepared meeting has the potential to produce tangible results,” Sybiha wrote.

Along similar lines, Ukrainian FM spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi said on social media that Russia hadn’t released a memorandum yet because they are "afraid of revealing that they are stalling the peace process.”

“We are not opposed to further meetings with the Russians and are awaiting their ‘memorandum’ so that the meeting won’t be empty and can truly move us closer to ending the war,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov wrote on Facebook. “The Russian side has at least four more days before their departure to provide us with their document for review.”

Lavrov insisted Russia “is ready to present a memorandum to the Ukrainian delegation and provide the necessary explanations during a second round of direct talks in Istanbul on Monday, 2 June.”

Meanwhile in Washington, State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce was asked yesterday if the U.S. would be involved in the Istanbul talks. “I'm not going to go into that. I have nothing to preview for you on that,” she responded.

And tensions are mounting over prospects of additional sanctions on Russia. For his part, Trump said Wednesday he hasn’t imposed new sanctions because "I think I'm close to getting a deal."

"I don't want to screw it up by doing that," Trump said, discussing sanctions. "This isn't my war. This is Biden's war, Zelenskyy's war and Putin’s war. This isn't Trump's war. I'm only here for one thing — to see if I can end it.”

Trump was asked whether he thinks Putin wants to end the war on Wednesday. "I can't tell you that. But I'll let you know in about two weeks,” he replied, a phrasing that some journalists have interpreted as a deadline to negotiating parties.

"We're going to find out whether or not he's tapping us along or not. And if he is, we'll respond a little bit differently. But it will take about a week and a half, two weeks,” Trump explained.

Some Republican lawmakers remain eager, but are ultimately waiting on Trump for the go-ahead, to push more sanctions on Russia through Congress via a sanctions bill advanced by Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). In addition to slapping new sanctions on Russia, the bill would implement a punishing 500% tariff on imports from those buying Russian oil.

Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) told Fox News’s Sean Hannity Tuesday that “we’ll be able to pass this [legislation] in the Senate, we’ll be able to pass this in the House, and President Trump will sign it,” following a green light from Trump. For now though, he clarified senators are “holding off” on advancing the legislation in question.“We’ve been holding off because President Trump wanted time to negotiate with Russia,” Mullin explained.

“We will work with the Trump administration to consider additional sanctions to force Putin to start negotiating,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R - S.D.) reiterated on the Senate floor Thursday. “The ball is in [President Putin’s] court.”

Thune previously told reporters last week that the sanctions bill was “ready to go” with “overwhelming bipartisan support,” if the White House ended up favoring tougher sanctions.

In other Ukraine war news this week

Russia and Ukraine both exchanged 1,000 prisoners of war, the conflict’s largest prisoner exchange thus far, over the weekend, according to Al Jazeera.

Aerial attacks between Ukraine and Russia intensified in recent days, Al Jazeera reported, with Ukraine striking Russian military infrastructure with at least 800 drones in Russia’s Tula, Alabuga and Tatarstan regions over several days. Russia responded to the attacks with its own, launching over 900 kamikaze drones and 92 missiles into Ukraine, killing at least 16 people.

Three sources told Reuters that NATO will ask Germany to provide about 40,000 more troops for the organization’s defense needs, according to reporting from Wednesday. The bolstered troop numbers, paired with the organization’s plans to up its weapons targets, are aimed at countering Russia, which NATO perceives as a greater threat following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The New York Times reported Thursday that Russia is starting a new offensive, pushing into the Ukrainian-controlled territory remaining in the Donbass region. Military analysts posit that Russia’s effort follows a winter of preparations, which included improving battlefield communications, tweaking attack drone technologies, and bolstering equipment reserves.

From State Department Press Briefing May 29

“I think the President has judged Putin based on the nature of what was clearly extremely frustrating to him regarding the killing of civilians while talks are going on for a cease fire,” State Department Spokesperson Tammy Bruce said, citing Trump’s frustrations with Russian attacks continuing during peace negotiations.“ And it is that's a judgment that's going to come from the leaders of this country — the leaders, frankly, of the free world — of whether or not that's possible. And we're going to have to take that moment by moment.”


Top Photo Credit: Diplomacy Watch (Khody Akhavi)
Diplomacy Watch: Minerals deal to occur next week
google cta
Analysis | QiOSK
Dan Caine
Top photo credit: Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff U.S. Air Force Gen. Dan Caine conduct a press briefing on Operation Epic Fury at the Pentagon, Washington, D.C., March 4, 2026. (DoW photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Alexander Kubitza)

Did Caine just announce the Morgenthau option for Iran?

QiOSK

Gen. Dan Caine’s formulation of American war aims in Iran is remarkable not because it is bellicose, but because it is strategically incoherent.

In a press conference Tuesday morning, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff did not describe a limited campaign to suppress missile fire, blunt Iran’s naval threat, or even impose a severe but bounded setback on Tehran’s coercive instruments. He described a campaign against Iran’s “military and industrial base” designed to prevent the regime from attacking Americans, U.S. interests, and regional partners “for years to come.” In an earlier briefing he put the objective similarly: to prevent Iran from projecting power outside its borders. Rather than the language of a discrete coercive operation, this describes a war against a state’s capacity to regenerate power.

keep readingShow less
Mbs-mbz-scaled
UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan receives Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the Presidential Airport in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates November 27, 2019. WAM/Handout via REUTERS

Is the US goading Arab states to join war against Iran?

QiOSK

On Sunday, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Mike Waltz told ABC News that Arab Gulf states may soon step up their involvement in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. “I expect that you'll see additional diplomatic and possibly military action from them in the coming days and weeks,” Waltz said.

Then, on Monday morning, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) slammed Saudi Arabia for staying out of the war even as “Americans are dying and the U.S. is spending billions” of dollars to conduct regime change in Iran. “If you are not willing to use your military now, when are you willing to use it?” Graham asked. “Hopefully this changes soon. If not, consequences will follow.”

keep readingShow less
Why Tehran may have time on its side
Top image credit: Iranian army military personnel stand at attention under a banner featuring an image of an Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) during a military parade commemorating the anniversary of Army Day outside the Shrine of Iran's late leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the south of Tehran, Iran, on April 18, 2025. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto)

Why Tehran may have time on its side

QiOSK

A provocative calculus by Anusar Farrouqui (“policytensor”) has been circulating on X and in more exhaustive form on the author’s Substack. It purports to demonstrate a sobering reality: in a high-intensity U.S.-Iran conflict, the United States may be unable to suppress Iranian drone production quickly enough to prevent a strategically consequential period of regional devastation.

The argument is framed through a quantitative lens, carrying the seductive appeal of mathematical precision. It arranges variables—such as U.S. sortie rates and degradation efficiency against Iranian repair cycles and rebuild speeds—to suggest a "sustainable firing rate." The implication is that Iran could maintain a persistent strike capability long enough to exhaust American political patience, forcing Washington toward a premature declaration of success or an unfavorable ceasefire.

keep readingShow less
google cta
Want more of our stories on Google?
Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.