Recent remarks about the necessity of disarming Hezbollah by U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack have stunned Lebanese leaders, who are concerned that any forcible attempt to carry out Washington’s wishes risks plunging the country into renewed sectarian violence and possibly even civil war.
“We don’t want to arm [the Lebanese Armed Forces] so they can fight Israel? I don’t think so,” Barrack, who also serves as Special Envoy to Syria, said in a recent media interview. “So you’re arming them so they can fight their own people, Hezbollah. Hezbollah is our enemy. Iran is our enemy.”
Expressing frustration with the Lebanese government’s failure to act against Hezbollah (“all they do is talk”), the ambassador warned, “Jerusalem is going to take care of Hezbollah for you.”
Barrack’s remarks set off a firestorm in Beirut.
Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said he was “surprised” by Barrack’s statements and called on the international community to pressure Israel to withdraw from all Lebanese territories it has occupied since last fall and halt its continuing air strikes against alleged Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, one of which killed four civilians, including three children, last week.
Parliament speaker and close Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri accused Barrack of trying to transform the LAF into “a border guard for Israel,” while President Joseph Aoun affirmed that disarming Hezbollah by force is currently out of the question and that he is committed to preserving the country’s unity.
While Barrack, a billionaire friend of President Trump, is known for bluntness, there is no doubt that he speaks for an administration that has alienated much of the Arab world due to its virtually unconditional support for Israel’s bloody military campaign in Gaza. Indeed, the reinstatement last month of Morgan Ortagus as deputy special envoy to the Middle East supports the view that Washington is now fully aligned with Jerusalem on Lebanon as well. Israel had reportedly lobbied the administration to give Ortagus the Lebanon file earlier this year.
Barrack’s position highlights how Washington appears ignorant or outright dismissive of a basic reality; namely, that the issue goes beyond merely the disarmament of a group it designates as a terrorist organization. Rather, Hezbollah’s arms must be seen within the broader context of Lebanon’s complex sectarian landscape, particularly the fears and sentiments of the Shiites, the country’s largest sectarian community.
Recent polls reveal that Hezbollah retains overwhelming support among Lebanese Shiites, after its sweep of Shiite constituencies in last January’s elections. A survey by the Hezbollah-affiliated Consultative Center for Studies and Documentation found that 58% of all respondents, including more than 95% of Shiites, oppose the movement’s disarmament without enhancing Lebanon’s deterrence capabilities.
Its findings appeared consistent with another poll conducted late last month by the independent firm Information International. It found that 58% of 1,000 respondents opposed Hezbollah surrendering its arms without guarantees of Israel’s withdrawal from all Lebanese territory and a halt to its violations of Lebanese sovereignty. Among Shiite respondents, 96% shared this view, as did a majority of Druze respondents.
Against this backdrop, Lebanese political leaders’ reluctance to take a more forceful approach towards disarming Hezbollah should be seen as more an attempt to avert civil strife than as a concession to Hezbollah.
Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut noted that any attempt by the LAF to disarm the movement by force would be met with fierce resistance not only by Hezbollah, but a large segment of the Shiite population as well.
“A U.S.-provoked civil war against Hezbollah that leads to a murderous deadlock is far more perilous than advancing slowly and eventually working out a modus vivendi with the party that avoids domestic conflict,” warned Young, a veteran Lebanese journalist, who is not known for his sympathies for Hezbollah.
Barrack himself dismissed such fears. “I know they [Lebanese government officials] don't want a civil war. There's not going to be a civil war. Hezbollah is at the lowest point in history that they’ve ever been,” he said, reaffirming Washington's readiness to help.
Some experts believe some disarmament is achievable, provided the process is incremental and limited.
“I don’t think Hezbollah will open a civil war because it will see itself losing on that front and they have to be strategic as they always are,” Mariam Farida, author of “Religion and Hezbollah,” told RS. “The changing dynamics with regional and domestic support [or lack thereof] will allow for staged disarmament, even if symbolic, like what happened with Palestinian camps,” she added in a reference to the recent turnover of arms to the LAF in several refugee camps around Beirut.
Still, it is safe to say that pressuring the LAF into disarming Hezbollah carries with it a risk of internal conflict, particularly if done hastily and without reciprocal Israeli concessions.
While there are no official Lebanese records to verify the sectarian composition of the LAF, Israel’s Alma Research Center estimates that Sunnis make up 35-45% of the army, and Shiites 40-50%, with the rest distributed amongst Christians and Druze.
Sunni soldiers would therefore be expected to do the heavy lifting if the army tried to disarm Hezbollah by force, raising the spectre of fighting breaking out between Sunni and Shiite soldiers.
Barrack, who has been a strong supporter of Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, whose background as an affiliate of al-Qaida is of considerable concern to many in Lebanon, described the army as being “mostly Sunni,” leading to speculation among some that he was encouraging Sunni-Shiite strife, notwithstanding his dismissal of the likelihood of civil war.
A Syria-like scenario is indeed a major concern for Lebanese leaders, including Christians, particularly given how ISIS has succeeded in intensifying its attacks in Syria recently, including a suicide bombing at a Greek Orthodox church in Damascus last June that killed at least 25 people.
According to a Lebanese journalist who maintains close contact with the presidency and spoke with RS on condition of anonymity, this is an important factor behind the reluctance of President Aoun, who is Christian, to confront Hezbollah with force.
“The president does not want to create an imbalance where the Sunnis are empowered at the expense of the Shiites,” the journalist said.
Barrack conceded that Israel’s continued occupation of Lebanese territory and frequent airstrikes against alleged Hezbollah targets, as well as elsewhere across the Middle East, were not helping prospects for disarmament. Asked what incentives Hezbollah has to disarm, he replied, “Zero.”
“As it goes on, [Hezbollah’s] argument gets better and better: ‘We’re here to protect the Lebanese from Israel,’” he noted. “Israel has five points [that it still occupies in Lebanon] and is not withdrawing.”
