Follow us on social

How much did the right really gain in Europe?

How much did the right really gain in Europe?

The center will hold in Brussels after the parliament elections; the real story is France and Germany

Analysis | Europe

The elections for the European Parliament brought gains for parties belonging to both its populist far- right factions — European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the more radical Identity and Democracy (ID) group. Parties of the populist or far right (ECR, ID or unaffiliated) came in first in five countries: France, Italy, Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia.

In Germany, Poland, and the Netherlands, such parties made a strong second place showing. These elections produced highly unsettling developments in France and Germany, the two most influential EU member countries.

In France, the party of Marine Le Pen, National Rally (RN, a member of the ID group) won just over 30% of the vote, twice the support gained by Macron’s liberal Renaissance party. As a result, Macron called snap national parliamentary elections for the end of this month, opening the possibility of “cohabitation” with a far-right prime minister for the remainder of Macron’s final term in office.

In Germany, the far right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) took just under 16% of the vote, a second-place finish behind the Christian Democrats at 30%, and ahead of the Social Democrats at 14%, Greens at 12% and FDP (liberals) at 5%. These three latter parties form Germany’s governing coalition, and their combined 30% showing exposes deep popular disaffection with those in power. The new anti-war left populist BSW (Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht) enters the European Parliament with 6%.

The gains by populist far right parties were more modest than predicted by polls taken earlier this year. Overall, the relative balance in the parliament is not radically changed: centrists (EPP, S&D and Renew) retain a slightly diminished majority (403 of 720 seats). The ECR gained four seats to win 73, and ID gained nine seats to end with 58 in the new parliament. The latter score reflects the move of AfD (which won 15 seats) from ID to the unaffiliated category. Turnout averaged 51% across the 27 member countries, only marginally higher than in 2019.

A range of factors seem to have driven the relative success of the far right: migration flows, economic insecurity, the alleged impact of Europe’s green policies, anti-elite Euro-skepticism, and (in some instances) opposition to funding and arming Ukraine. The relatively stronger far right in the new parliament can be expected to press on these issues.

The right of center European People’s Party remains easily the biggest delegation in the parliament with 189 seats, more than a quarter of the total. The center-left Social Democrats lost only four seats to win 135, with the pro-business centrist liberals (Renew) losing 23 seats to remain in third place with 79 seats. These three groups have served as a de facto coalition in support of the legislative agenda of the Commission president, German Christian Democrat Ursula von der Leyen. The coalition will have a slightly diminished majority of seats, so that von der Leyen’s election to a second term as president of the European Commission could be at some risk. The ballot is secret, and a defection rate of about 10% is considered normal.

The EPP may owe its strong performance to its having toughened its stance on migration and on the green transition in part to slow the momentum of the far right. This will complicate EPP’s cooperation with S&D. It is possible that the EPP will enact legislation in these two policy areas with votes from the ECR, which will raise the profile and significance of the populist right in the new parliament. The Greens lost 18 seats and fall to 53 in the new parliament.

Maneuvers on the right

The ECR and ID delegations — if merged — would make the far right the third largest grouping. A barrier to such a merger has been the role of Germany’s AfD, which was expelled from ID just before the elections, after AfD’s lead candidate Maximilian Krah stated in a press interview that membership in the Nazi-era SS did not by itself imply personal criminality. In response, Marine Le Pen successfully pushed for the AfD’s expulsion from the ID ranks.

Ursula von der Leyen has courted Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni (Brothers of Italy — ECR) in support of her re-election to a second term as president of the European Commission. But Meloni (one of the few European leaders currently enjoying strong popular support) has sought to convince EPP to govern with ECR and ID rather than with the S&D and Liberals. As a step toward this aim, she has called for a merger of the ECR and ID. Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orban, and former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki (of the Law and Justice party — ECR) have endorsed such an effort. The combined strength of ECR and ID could increase its already significant leverage over the positions taken by the center right EPP.

Although the aggregate performance of the ID and ECR fell short of producing a major “wave” reshaping the European Parliament, the results in France and Germany in particular were momentous. European parliamentary elections remain fundamentally national contests, tests of strength for ruling and opposition parties. The results in Germany and France risk domestic political gridlockand undermine the already troubled Franco-German tandem so essential to defining the EU agenda. The election result has also underscored the role of Italy’s Meloni in reinvigorating the far right’s role in European politics.


Marine Le Pen, President of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National - RN) party parliamentary group, and Jordan Bardella, President of the French far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National - RN) party and head of the RN list for the European elections, attend a political rally during the party's campaign for the EU elections, in Paris, France, June 2, 2024. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann/File Photo

Analysis | Europe
US Marines
Top image credit: U.S. Marines with Force Reconnaissance Platoon, Maritime Raid Force, 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, prepare to clear a room during a limited scale raid exercise at Sam Hill Airfield, Queensland, Australia, June 21, 2025. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Alora Finigan)

Cartels are bad but they're not 'terrorists.' This is mission creep.

Military Industrial Complex

There is a dangerous pattern on display by the Trump administration. The president and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth seem to hold the threat and use of military force as their go-to method of solving America’s problems and asserting state power.

The president’s reported authorization for the Pentagon to use U.S. military warfighting capacity to combat drug cartels — a domain that should remain within the realm of law enforcement — represents a significant escalation. This presents a concerning evolution and has serious implications for civil liberties — especially given the administration’s parallel moves with the deployment of troops to the southern border, the use of federal forces to quell protests in California, and the recent deployment of armed National Guard to the streets of our nation’s capital.

keep readingShow less
Howard Lutnick
Top photo credit: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on CNBC, 8/26/25 (CNBC screengrab)

Is nationalizing the defense industry such a bad idea?

Military Industrial Complex

The U.S. arms industry is highly consolidated, specialized, and dependent on government contracts. Indeed, the largest U.S. military contractors are already effectively extensions of the state — and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick is right to point that out.

His suggestion in a recent media appearance to partially nationalize the likes of Lockheed Martin is hardly novel. The economist John Kenneth Galbraith argued for the nationalization of the largest military contractors in 1969. More recently, various academics and policy analysts have advocated for partial or full nationalization of military firms in publications including The Nation, The American Conservative, The Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP), and The Seattle Journal for Social Justice.

keep readingShow less
Modi Trump
Top image credit: White House, February 2025

Trump's India problem could become a Global South crisis

Asia-Pacific

As President Trump’s second term kicked off, all signs pointed to a continued upswing in U.S.-India relations. At a White House press conference in February, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke of his vision to “Make India Great Again” and how the United States under Trump would play a central role. “When it’s MAGA plus MIGA, it becomes a mega partnership for prosperity,” Modi said.

During Trump’s first term, the two populist leaders hosted rallies for each other in their respective countries and cultivated close personal ties. Aside from the Trump-Modi bromance, U.S.-Indian relations have been on a positive trajectory for over two decades, driven in part by mutual suspicion of China. But six months into his second term, Trump has taken several actions that have led to a dramatic downturn in U.S.-India relations, with India-China relations suddenly on the rise.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.