Follow us on social

Diplomacy Watch

Diplomacy Watch: Europe plans to ‘outgun’ Russia

Fearing abandonment from US, EU officials are investing in defense

Europe

While pushing to negotiate with Russia on Ukraine, President Donald Trump simultaneously claims Europe should spend more on the war effort — and on defense, generally.

During his presidential campaign, Trump suggested he’d encourage Russia to "do whatever the hell they want" against NATO countries spending under 2% of their GDP on defense. And since winning the election, Trump has upped his suggested spending percentages, saying NATO countries should aim to spend 5%. He repeated this call on Thursday during his speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos.

“We’re talking to [Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelenskyy. We’re going to be talking with President [Vladimir] Putin very soon. And we’ll see how it all happens. We’re going to look at it very soon. One thing I do feel, the European Union should be paying a lot more than they’re paying,” Trump said in recent public comments about the Ukraine war.

In the wake of Trump’s return to the White House and uncertainty surrounding the Ukraine war, European officials increasingly fear being cut out over relevant war negotiations, or otherwise being abandoned by the U.S. Indeed, Zelensky even publicly questioned the U.S. commitment to Europe in a speech at Davos.

Rather than reconsider its stance toward the conflict, however — NATO head Mark Rutte explicitly warned against withdrawing Ukraine support at Davos — many European high officials instead want to bolster defense spending, in line with Trump’s calls.

"What will we do in Europe tomorrow if our American ally withdraws its warships from the Mediterranean? If they send their fighter jets from the Atlantic to the Pacific?" Macron asked French military members early this week in a call to reduce Europe’s security reliance on America.

"Do not play down [Trump’s appeal] to spend 5%," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in a speech to the European parliament Wednesday, re-upping Trump’s comments.“Ask not of America what it can do for our security. Ask yourselves what we can do for our own security.”

“If Europe is to survive, it must be armed,” Tusk emphasized.

At the recent European Defense Agency annual conference, EU top diplomat Kaja Kallas also highlighted Russia’s higher defense spending levels: whereas 9% of Russia’s GDP goes toward its military budget, EU member states on average spend less than 2%.

“Europe’s failure to invest in military capabilities also sends a dangerous signal to the aggressor. Weakness invites them in,” Kallas said at the conference. "Russia poses an existential threat to our security today, tomorrow and for as long as we underinvest in our defence," she explained.

Kallas, working with EU defense commissioner Andrius Kubilius, plans to advance proposals to bolster the EU’s defense capacities in March.

"The storm clouds of war are gathering over Europe," Kubilius said at the European Defense Agency conference. "We can outspend, outproduce — and outgun Russia.


In other Ukraine war news this week:

According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia attacked Ukraine with four missiles and 131 drones on Wednesday. Seventy-two of the drones were destroyed, another 59 disappeared without reaching their respective targets, Al Jazeera reported.

According to The Guardian, prominent financier Bill Browder suggested UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer push for Ukraine to receive about $300 billion worth of foreign currency, gold, and bonds belonging to the Russian central bank, all frozen at the start of the Ukraine war, to spend on weapons to keep fighting.

According to Reuters, Trump threatened Russia with sanctions if it does not meaningfully negotiate to end the Ukraine war. “I’m going to do Russia, whose economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR. Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE,” Trump said on Truth Social.

As per Sky News, Russian officials quickly responded to Trump’s threat. As Russia’s deputy UN ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy emphasized, negotiations depend on whether given proposals work to address the Ukraine conflict’s underlying origins. "It's not merely the question of ending the war…It's first and foremost the question of addressing the root causes of [the] Ukrainian crisis."

"We have to see what…the 'deal' mean[s] in President Trump's understanding. He is not responsible for what the US has been doing in Ukraine since 2014, making it 'anti-Russia' and preparing for the war with us, but it is in his power now to stop this malicious policy,” Polyanskiy explained.



Top Photo Credit: Diplomacy Watch
Europe
Somalia
Top image credit: U.S. forces host a range day with the Danab Brigade in Somalia, May 9, 2021. Special Operations Command Africa remains engaged with partner forces in Somalia in order to promote safety and stability across the Horn of Africa. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Zoe Russell)

Why the US can't beat al-Shabaab in Somalia

Africa

The New York Times reported earlier this month that recent gains by al-Shabaab Islamist militants in central and southern Somalia has prompted a debate within the State Department about closing the U.S. Embassy in Mogadishu and withdrawing most American personnel. At the forefront of some officials’ minds, according to the Times, are memories of recent foreign policy fiascos, such as the fall of the Afghan government amid a hasty American withdrawal in 2021.

There are good reasons to question why the U.S. has been unable to defeat al-Shabaab despite nearly 20 years of U.S. military involvement in the country. But the scale of the U.S. role is drastically different than that of Afghanistan, and the U.S. cannot necessarily be described as the most significant external security actor on the ground. At the same time, the Trump administration has given no indication that it will scale down drone strikes — meaning that the U.S. will continue to privilege military solutions.

keep readingShow less
Hegseth Guam
Top photo credit: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth departs Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, March 27, 2025. (DOD photo by U.S. Air Force Madelyn Keech)

Hegseth goes to 'spear point' Guam to prep for war with China

Asia-Pacific

The Guam headlines from the recent visit of the U.S. secretary of defense are only part of Secretary Hegseth’s maiden visit to the Pacific. It is Guam’s place in the larger picture - where the island fits into U.S. strategy - that helps us understand how the “tip of the spear” is being positioned. Perhaps overlooked, the arrangement of the “Guam piece” gives us a better sense not only of Guam’s importance to the United States, but also of how the U.S. sees the larger geopolitical competition taking shape.

Before he landed on Guam, the secretary of defense circulated a secret memo that prioritized U.S. readiness for a potential conflict with China over Taiwan. At the same time, it was reported that U.S. intelligence assessed that Guam would be “a major target of Chinese missile strikes” if China launched an invasion of Taiwan.

keep readingShow less
Pope Francis' legacy of inter-faith diplomacy
Top image credit: Pope Francis met with Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, one of the Muslim world's leading authorities on March 6, 2021 in Najaf, Iraq. (Vatican Media via REUTERS)

Pope Francis' legacy of inter-faith diplomacy

Global Crises

One of the most enduring tributes to Pope Francis, who passed away this Easter, would be the appreciation for his legacy of inter-religious diplomacy, a vision rooted in his humility, compassion, and a commitment to bridging divides — between faiths, cultures, and ideologies — from a standpoint of mutual respect and tolerance.

Among his most profound contributions is his historic meeting with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Najaf, Iraq, on March 6, 2021. What made this meeting a true landmark in inter-faith dialogue was the fact it brought together, for the first time, the spiritual leader of the world’s 1.2 billion Roman Catholics and one of the most revered figures in Shia Islam, with influence on tens of millions of Shia Muslims globally. In a humble, yet moving ceremony, the meeting took place in al-Sistani’s modest home in Najaf. A frail al-Sistani, who rarely receives visitors and typically remains seated, stood to greet the 84-year-old Pope and held his hand, in a gesture that underscored mutual respect.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.