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Diplomacy Watch: Trump's 'gotta make a deal' on Ukraine

Other war developments suggest tensions are on the rise

Analysis | QiOSK

President-elect Donald Trump said early this week that the Ukraine war “has to stop” and that people are “dying at levels nobody has ever seen.”

“Gotta make a deal,” he said about Ukraine. He didn’t say whether a prospective deal could include Ukraine ceding territory to Russia, or deal with Ukraine’s ongoing requests for NATO membership.

Trump echoed similar sentiments in a recent TIME interview, where he said “the number of people dying…[is] not sustainable…It’s really an advantage to both sides to get this thing done.”

Putin likewise reiterated interest in diplomacy during his annual conference on December 19, saying that “If we meet with Mr. Trump, we will have things to discuss…We have always said that we are ready for both talks and compromises.”

"Soon, those Ukrainians who want to fight will run out, in my opinion, soon there will be no one left who wants to fight. We are ready, but the other side needs to be ready for both negotiations and compromises,” Putin said.

The Russian president also said he would ask ousted Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, now in Russia, about the whereabouts of American journalist Austin Tice, who went missing in Syria 12 years prior.

For his part, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted on X Thursday after a meeting with the European Council. He seemed resigned to future talks, urging European unity heading into them:

"At the meeting of the European Council, I stressed that Europe and America must be at the table when the time comes. The EU, like Ukraine, must enter talks from a position of strength. Only coordinated efforts can bring lasting peace—not a pause Putin would exploit to buy time."

Trump and Putin may say they’re for a deal, and Zelenskyy is anticipating negotiations, but other factors suggest tensions are still on the rise.

In the rest of his X thread, Zelensky continued to press for tougher sanctions on Russia and more weapons from the West to fight them.

“This will remain crucial next year – supplying weapons, boosting production, and strengthening sanctions on Russia to push them toward diplomacy. Europe must stay strong,” he said. “In January, President Trump will intensify efforts to end the war. It’s up to us whether Europe supports him with a strong, united voice.”

Meanwhile, North Korean casualties have been reported over the last week, with Ukraine alleging DPRK fighters are present in the Russian region of Kursk. Ukraine previously seized territory in the Kursk region during a summer offensive; the area has since been wrought with heavy fighting.

The soldiers are part of a contingent of 10,000 North Korean troops the U.S. and Ukraine say were recently sent to Russia. A U.S. official speaking to the Associated Press this week said the Kursk fighters did not appear battle-hardened.

The State Department condemned the apparent North Korean-Russian collaboration in a joint statement with other, mostly Western, Foreign Ministries on Tuesday, stating that “direct DPRK support for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine marks a dangerous expansion of the conflict.”

“We are deeply concerned about any political, military, or economic support that Russia may be providing to the DPRK’s illegal weapons programs, including weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery,” the statement read.

Also escalating tensions, Ukraine’s Security Service, or SBU, reportedly killed Russian Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov this week in Moscow in a bomb attack. Russia’s security service subsequently said it detained an attack suspect, an Uzbek citizen recruited by Ukrainian intelligence. The Russian top state investigative agency is also looking into the death as a terrorism case. An SBU official said the SBU was responsible; Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak denied the claim.

The assassination follows others planned or carried out by Ukrainian forces in Russian-controlled territory, including the killing of Russian activist and blogger Vladlen Tatarsky last spring at a St. Petersburg cafe.

Notably, President-elect Donald Trump's new envoy to Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, criticized the recent attack on Kirillov. He remarked on Fox Business that “There are rules of warfare and there are certain things you just kind of don't do."

“When you're killing flag officers, general officers, admirals or generals in their hometown, it's kind of like you've extended it, and I don't think it's really smart to do it,” Kellogg said. It was also announced this week that Kellogg would be traveling to Ukraine and several European cities on a “fact-finding mission” in early January.

In other Ukraine war news this week:

As conflict continues, European states prepare for the worst. According to Aftonbladet, for example, newly-minted NATO member Sweden is reportedly building up to 500,000 gravesites — about 5% of Sweden’s total population — in case of direct conflict with Russia, though the sites may help bury fighters from other NATO member countries.

Putin announced at the Russian Defense Ministry's recent board meeting that Russia would begin to produce new hypersonic Oreshnik missiles in the "near future,” according to Politico. Putin had boasted about the weapon’s capabilities at his annual conference, saying “there is no chance of shooting down these Oreshnik missiles” due to their high speed — an estimated Mach 10, or 10 times the speed of sound. Russia reportedly used the missiles for the first time last month in a strike on Dnipro, Ukraine.

Russia launched 93 ballistic and cruise missiles and almost 200 drones in a major strike on Ukrainian infrastructure on December 13, according to AP. Many of the missiles fired were subsequently intercepted by Ukrainian forces.

From State Department Press Briefing on Dec. 16

State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller called North Korean soldiers at Kursk “legitimate targets” in a December 16 State Department press briefing, saying “They entered a war and they are, as such, combatants and are legitimate targets for the Ukrainian military.”

According to Miller, the soldiers’ presence signals an “escalation” by Russia and North Korea. "We have seen North Korean soldiers who have been killed in action on the battlefield inside Russia. And if they were to cross the border into Ukraine, that would be yet another escalation by the government of Russia and also an escalation by the government of North Korea to send North Korean troops to prosecute a war of aggression against an independent, sovereign nation inside that nation's borders. That would absolutely be an escalation by the government of North Korea.”


Diplomacy Watch: Trump's 'gotta make a deal' on Ukraine
Analysis | QiOSK
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The Bunker appears originally at the Project on Government Oversight and is republished here with permission.


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Blob exploiting Trump's anger with Putin, risking return to Biden's war

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Donald Trump’s recent outburst against Vladimir Putin — accusing the Russian leader of "throwing a pile of bullsh*t at us" and threatening devastating new sanctions — might be just another Trumpian tantrum.

The president is known for abrupt reversals. Or it could be a bargaining tactic ahead of potential Ukraine peace talks. But there’s a third, more troubling possibility: establishment Republican hawks and neoconservatives, who have been maneuvering to hijack Trump’s “America First” agenda since his return to office, may be exploiting his frustration with Putin to push for a prolonged confrontation with Russia.

Trump’s irritation is understandable. Ukraine has accepted his proposed ceasefire, but Putin has refused, making him, in Trump’s eyes, the main obstacle to ending the war.

Putin’s calculus is clear. As Ted Snider notes in the American Conservative, Russia is winning on the battlefield. In June, it captured more Ukrainian territory and now threatens critical Kyiv’s supply lines. Moscow also seized a key lithium deposit critical to securing Trump’s support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone strikes have intensified.

Putin seems convinced his key demands — Ukraine’s neutrality, territorial concessions in the Donbas and Crimea, and a downsized Ukrainian military — are more achievable through war than diplomacy.

Yet his strategy empowers the transatlantic “forever war” faction: leaders in Britain, France, Germany, and the EU, along with hawks in both main U.S. parties. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claims that diplomacy with Russia is “exhausted.” Europe’s war party, convinced a Russian victory would inevitably lead to an attack on NATO (a suicidal prospect for Moscow), is willing to fight “to the last Ukrainian.” Meanwhile, U.S. hawks, including liberal interventionist Democrats, stoke Trump’s ego, framing failure to stand up to Putin’s defiance as a sign of weakness or appeasement.

Trump long resisted this pressure. Pragmatism told him Ukraine couldn’t win, and calling it “Biden’s war” was his way of distancing himself, seeking a quick exit to refocus on China, which he has depicted as Washington’s greater foreign threat. At least as important, U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine has been unpopular with his MAGA base.

But his June strikes on Iran may signal a hawkish shift. By touting them as a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program (despite Tehran’s refusal so far to abandon uranium enrichment), Trump may be embracing a new approach to dealing with recalcitrant foreign powers: offer a deal, set a deadline, then unleash overwhelming force if rejected. The optics of “success” could tempt him to try something similar with Russia.

This pivot coincides with a media campaign against restraint advocates within the administration like Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon policy chief who has prioritized China over Ukraine and also provoked the opposition of pro-Israel neoconservatives by warning against war with Iran. POLITICO quoted unnamed officials attacking Colby for wanting the U.S. to “do less in the world.” Meanwhile, the conventional Republican hawk Marco Rubio’s influence grows as he combines the jobs of both secretary of state and national security adviser.

What Can Trump Actually Do to Russia?
 

Nuclear deterrence rules out direct military action — even Biden, far more invested in Ukraine than Trump, avoided that risk. Instead, Trump ally Sen.Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), another establishment Republican hawk, is pushing a 500% tariff on nations buying Russian hydrocarbons, aiming to sever Moscow from the global economy. Trump seems supportive, although the move’s feasibility and impact are doubtful.

China and India are key buyers of Russian oil. China alone imports 12.5 million barrels daily. Russia exports seven million barrels daily. China could absorb Russia’s entire output. Beijing has bluntly stated it “cannot afford” a Russian defeat, ensuring Moscow’s economic lifeline remains open.

The U.S., meanwhile, is ill-prepared for a tariff war with China. When Trump imposed 145% tariffs, Beijing retaliated by cutting off rare earth metals exports, vital to U.S. industry and defense. Trump backed down.

At the G-7 summit in Canada last month, the EU proposed lowering price caps on Russian oil from $60 a barrel to $45 a barrel as part of its 18th sanctions package against Russia. Trump rejected the proposal at the time but may be tempted to reconsider, given his suggestion that more sanctions may be needed. Even if Washington backs the measure now, however, it is unlikely to cripple Russia’s war machine.

Another strategy may involve isolating Russia by peeling away Moscow’s traditionally friendly neighbors. Here, Western mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan isn’t about peace — if it were, pressure would target Baku, which has stalled agreements and threatened renewed war against Armenia. The real goal is to eject Russia from the South Caucasus and create a NATO-aligned energy corridor linking Turkey to Central Asia, bypassing both Russia and Iran to their detriment.

Central Asia itself is itself emerging as a new battleground. In May 2025, the EU has celebrated its first summit with Central Asian nations in Uzbekistan, with a heavy focus on developing the Middle Corridor, a route for transportation of energy and critical raw materials that would bypass Russia. In that context, the EU has committed €10 billion in support of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

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On June 30, President Trump signed an executive order terminating the majority of U.S. sanctions on Syria. The move, which would have been unthinkable mere months ago, fulfilled a promise he made at an investment forum in Riyadh in May.“The sanctions were brutal and crippling,” he had declared to an audience of primarily Saudi businessmen. Lifting them, he said, will “give Syria a chance at greatness.”

The significance of this statement lies not solely in the relief that it will bring to the Syrian people. His remarks revealed an implicit but rarely admitted truth: sanctions — often presented as a peaceful alternative to war — have been harming the Syrian people all along.

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