Rustbelt poll: Majority say Trump more likely to avoid war

An interesting poll by the Cato Institute of likely voters in the three states expected to play a decisive role in November's presidential contest shows that not only are Americans paying attention, but have distinct feelings about how hard the U.S. should be leaning in on global conflicts.

"Foreign policy issues aren't typically a deciding factor in elections," Cato's Jon Hoffman tells me. "Our own poll shows the salience of foreign policy as opposed to other issues remains relatively low. Yet, there is no denying the large gap that exists between the American public and policy elites in Washington on a number of critical issues. Whether this moves the needle in any of these three key swing states remains to be seen, but these are growing divides that deserve recognition."

Some of the highlights in this regard:

— The percentage of those who think the U.S. is too involved in world affairs and conflicts: Wisconsin 53%, Pennsylvania 50%, Michigan 52% (Republicans were much more likely than Democrats to say the U.S. is too involved).

— The percentage who think that U.S. foreign policy does not put American interests first: Wisconsin 62%, Pennsylvania 61%, Michigan 60%

— The percentage who would be less likely to vote for a presidential candidate if they disagreed with their views on foreign policy, if they agreed with them on other issues: Wisconsin 52%, Pennsylvania 50%, Michigan 52%

— On Gaza, full majorities support an immediate ceasefire: Wisconsin 80%, Pennsylvania 75%, Michigan 74%.

— On Ukraine, majorities of swing state voters still believe the war in Ukraine is important for U.S. national security: Wisconsin 65%, Pennsylvania 70%, Michigan 71%. But they were less sanguine about whether they approved how the U.S. is handling the war: Wisconsin 39%, Pennsylvania 41%, Michigan 40%. When told that the U.S. has already given $170 billion in weapons and aid, they showed less reluctance to cutting it off: Wisconsin 50%, Pennsylvania 54%, Michigan 57%.

— On Mexico, majorities approved of sending militaries into the country to fight drug cartels, as proposed by a number of GOP candidates/lawmakers, including Donald Trump: Wisconsin 55%, Pennsylvania 55%, Michigan 51%. But that number drops when asked if they would feel the same if the Mexican government were opposed to it: Wisconsin 33%, Pennsylvania 36%, Michigan 37%

When likely voters were asked who they support in the November election, Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump in Wisconsin, 51%-46%. Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania, 47% -47%, and Trump is leading Harris 48% to 47% in Michigan.

Interestingly, likely voters in all three states say Tump is more likely to keep the U.S. out of war, Wisconsin 52%, Pennsylvania 51%, Michigan 52%. They said he is more likely to put American interests first in foreign policy, Wisconsin 51%, Pennsylvania 54%, Michigan 56%

But they said the former president is more likely than Harris to get the U.S. into "World War III" : Wisconsin 51%, Pennsylvania 51%, Michigan 53%

On WWIII, most likely voters in these battleground states thought we were approaching a world war: Wisconsin 59%, Pennsylvania 51%, Michigan 54%

See here for the full poll from Cato.