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Attacks on US troops in Middle East resume

Attacks on US troops in Middle East resume

Is anyone paying attention to this tinderbox, with our servicemen and women right in the middle?

Analysis | Middle East
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UPDATE 7/31 6:50 AM: The U.S. conducted an airstrike south of Baghdad late Tuesday. U.S. officials told ABC news that it was a defensive strike to thwart an attempted militant attack on a U.S. base in Babil Province.

"U.S. forces in Iraq conducted a defensive airstrike in the Musayib in Babil Province, targeting combatants attempting to launch one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWAUAS)," an official told reporters.

"Based on recent attacks in Iraq and Syria, U.S. Central Command assessed that the OWAUAS posed a threat to U.S. and Coalition Forces," the official said.




After six months of calm, Iran-aligned militias are again targeting U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria.

Following the Gaza war’s eruption, these militias sharply increased their attacks, resulting in the deaths of three U.S. soldiers on January 28 by a Kataib Hezbollah drone at Tower 22 in Jordan, near the Syrian border. In response, the Biden administration launched strikes against the militias, killing a senior Kataib Hezbollah commander on February 7, but avoiding commanders of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard, or IRGC. This led to a temporary lull in violence, but attacks have recently resumed.

Last Thursday and Friday, rockets were launched by Iran-aligned militias at bases hosting U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria, including Ain al-Assad base in Iraq and a coalition base in Syria. On July 16th, two drones also attacked al-Assad base, marking the first reported attack since February. No injuries were reported, and the attacks received little media attention.

As the U.S. and Iraq negotiate a drawdown of U.S. troops, which would leave only technical advisors, the militias may be trying to speed up implementation of this decision or show strength. These Iran-aligned militias are also part of the so-called Axis of Resistance which includes Lebanese Hezbollah. Any eruption in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is likely to spur an uptick in activity by the Iraqi militias, particularly against U.S. troops and Israeli targets like the port of Eilat.

The bottom line is that it should not be assumed that these attacks will remain non-lethal. These militias operate outside Iraqi government control and see targeting U.S. troops as part of their raison d'etre. As long as U.S. troops are present, attacks are likely to continue and shows of force to “restore deterrence” will delay — not end — attacks going forward.


Photo credi: Robert Hale/Shutterstock

Photo credi: Robert Hale/Shutterstock

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Analysis | Middle East
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UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan receives Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the Presidential Airport in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates November 27, 2019. WAM/Handout via REUTERS

Is the US goading Arab states to join war against Iran?

QiOSK

On Sunday, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Mike Waltz told ABC News that Arab Gulf states may soon step up their involvement in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. “I expect that you'll see additional diplomatic and possibly military action from them in the coming days and weeks,” Waltz said.

Then, on Monday morning, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) slammed Saudi Arabia for staying out of the war even as “Americans are dying and the U.S. is spending billions” of dollars to conduct regime change in Iran. “If you are not willing to use your military now, when are you willing to use it?” Graham asked. “Hopefully this changes soon. If not, consequences will follow.”

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Top image credit: Iranian army military personnel stand at attention under a banner featuring an image of an Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) during a military parade commemorating the anniversary of Army Day outside the Shrine of Iran's late leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the south of Tehran, Iran, on April 18, 2025. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto)

Why Tehran may have time on its side

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A provocative calculus by Anusar Farrouqui (“policytensor”) has been circulating on X and in more exhaustive form on the author’s Substack. It purports to demonstrate a sobering reality: in a high-intensity U.S.-Iran conflict, the United States may be unable to suppress Iranian drone production quickly enough to prevent a strategically consequential period of regional devastation.

The argument is framed through a quantitative lens, carrying the seductive appeal of mathematical precision. It arranges variables—such as U.S. sortie rates and degradation efficiency against Iranian repair cycles and rebuild speeds—to suggest a "sustainable firing rate." The implication is that Iran could maintain a persistent strike capability long enough to exhaust American political patience, forcing Washington toward a premature declaration of success or an unfavorable ceasefire.

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Is Ukraine peace toast, now that the Middle East is on fire?

Europe

President Donald Trump came into office promising to end wars, but last week, he instead started a new one, when he ordered what the White House is calling a “proactive defensive” operation in response to Iran’s “imminent threat.”

The onset of yet another U.S.-initiated conflict in the Middle East deals a double blow to Trump’s ambitions as a peacemaker. It has obviously derailed, perhaps permanently, the on-and-off talks between Tehran and Washington over the future of Iran’s nuclear program. But it is also likely to interfere with another Trump priority: ending the four-year-long war between Russia and Ukraine.

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