BRICS, at the conclusion of its summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, announced an expansion with the addition of six new member states — Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. This is a big deal. It is the first expansion of the grouping since 2010, when South Africa joined, and the biggest step since the 2015 founding of its New Development Bank.
The expansion will bring in deep-pocketed and energy-rich Gulf states, will enhance Africa and Latin America's representation, and showcase the great diversity of the member states’ domestic political systems. It also embeds regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran into what is starting to look like a broader multilateral institution, which could help cement the two's growing thaw.
It was likely that the summit would result in certain concrete criteria being defined for admitting new members. But announcing the actual admission of specific new members was a surprise.
The expansion— and the still-long waiting list of close to 20 states — is a demand signal for alternative structures for solving common challenges and furthering interests of Global South states, which are not being satisfied in the current global order.
Almost all Global South states in BRICS — old and new — are certainly not anti-American (many of them are close U.S. partners and two have American troops stationed on their soil), but they want to evolve alternative geoeconomic structures that can fill the deep gaps and deficiencies in the current US-led order.
The key for BRICS now is to translate expanded membership into enhanced efficacy of its institutions. Typically as a club expands, delivery challenges grow. There is no question that BRICS still has much hard work to do to create a robust organization on the ground. But this is a grouping on the move.
White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, by pointing to the diversity of interests of its members in a recent press conference, seemed to dismiss BRICS' significance. If so, that is a mistake. As the Quincy Institute’s Trita Parsi has noted, the admission of Iran, for example, is a sign that the U.S. is no longer able to act as a gatekeeper controlling the entry of states it doesn’t like into major global groupings — yet another sign that the era of unipolarity is coming, or has already come, to an end.
Washington should respond to the message from Johannesburg by repairing its currently deficient, sometimes counterproductive, policy approach to the Global South. By doing so, it will recover its own eroding credibility and influence and help in the faster resolution of major global challenges facing the planet.
Sarang Shidore is Director of the Global South Program at the Quincy Institute, and member of the adjunct faculty at George Washington University. He has published in Foreign Affairs and The New York times, among others. Sarang was previously a senior research scholar at the University of Texas at Austin and senior global analyst at the geopolitical risk firm Stratfor Inc.
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attends a meeting with South Africa's Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, August 23, 2023. Russian Foreign Ministry/Handout via REUTERS
The Bunker appears originally at the Project on Government Oversight and is republished here with permission.
The USS Diego Garcia
It’s not every day the U.S. military concentrates one of its most powerful weapons on a tiny island far from nowhere. After all, their vulnerability renders them a tempting target for troublemakers. But that’s just what the Pentagon has done, dispatching at least six B-2 bombers to desolate Diego Garcia in the middle of the Indian Ocean. That speck of land, 1,000 miles from anywhere, is basically an aircraft carrier that can’t move. Given that the radar-eluding B-2 has a readiness rate of just over 50%, sending six of the 19 in the Air Force’s inventory represents about half of the operational B-2 fleet’s firepower on an island smaller than Manhattan.
The $2 billion (each!) B-2s have been attacking Houthi rebels in Yemen, which is about as gross an example of “overmatch” as you can get. But the Houthis are aligned with Iran, and the U.S. is far more interested in sending Tehran a message than pulverizing second-rate Houthi military assets.
“If diplomacy fails, the next stage is likely war,” Axios reported April 8. “Bombs vs. diplomacy on Iran is a live debate within the Trump administration and the wider MAGA world.”
There’s lots of reasons this won’t happen. There are robust U.S. defenses protecting Diego Garcia, plus any such move by Iran runs the risk of a wider war. Then again, so did Trump’s decision to kill Qasem Soleimani, a senior Iranian general and terror boss, in 2020. But Trump was willing to take that risk, and, after minor-league retaliation by Tehran, the two sides resumed their tense, uneasy relationship. Best to keep those trigger-fingers crossed.
The world turned upside down
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly will be MIA when 50 nations gather in Brussels April 11 to coordinate military aid to Ukraine. It will mark the first time the group meets without the U.S. secretary of defense since the creation of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group after Russia invaded Ukraine three years ago.
The group has given Ukraine more than $126 billion(PDF) in military aid, half of which has come from the U.S. (although there is no new U.S. aid planned). The reinforcements have helped Ukraine keep its capital of Kyiv and 80% of its territory. Russian leader Vladimir Putin had hoped to conquer the country within weeks.
The SECDEF’s vanishing act takes place as Putin keeps pounding Ukraine while thwarting Trump’s efforts for a ceasefire. It is a shameful repudiation of the U.S.’s historical support of freedom over tyranny. It’s also a marked change from Trump’s 2023 rhetoric when he warned the Russian leader to end the war. “I would tell Putin: If you don’t make a deal, we’re going to give them [the Ukrainians] a lot,” he said. “We’re going to give them more than they ever got, if we have to.”
In an eerie echo, on April 2 Trump told Axios that Moscow was missing because existing U.S. sanctions on Russia “preclude any meaningful trade.” Yet the $3.5 billion in U.S.-Russia commerce last year topped total U.S. trade with countries like Brunei and Mauritius that Trump slapped with tariffs.
The Bunker’s not the only one flummoxed by the U.S. government’s recent bizarre actions on the world stage. “Denmark's naval modernization plan reflects threats from Russia, US,” read the head-scratching headline April 2 in Defense One about one of NATO’s founding members. The subhead tried to explain: “Copenhagen aims to buy one vessel to protect undersea cables and six or more that might defend Greenland.”
Duct tape and bailing wire
There is no better example of an overly-complicated military machine than the Pentagon’s V-22, the world’s only production tiltrotor. It’s an aircraft that could have sprung from the fevered mind of inventor Rube Goldberg, renowned for creating machines that solve “a simple problem in the most ridiculously inefficient way possible.”
Yes, it can take off and land like a helicopter, and then fly like a turboprop airplane as its rotors tilt forward. That’s why the Marines stormed Capitol Hill in 1989 to convince Congress to keep it flying despite then-Defense Secretary Dick Cheney’s repeated efforts to kill it. The Marines argue they need hundreds of these vertical-lift planes, just like their F-35B, to launch obsolete amphibious assaults from their small-deck warships (the last such assault took place in 1950).
The latest V-22 Band-Aid involves installing four-pound “predictive maintenance capabilities” boxes on some V-22s to see if they can prevent gearbox failures implicated in fatal crashes. Developed by a company called Shift5, the technology lets V-22 crews watch parts degrade in real time, instead of trying to catch such damage during periodic, and maybe too-late, post-flight inspections.
“Given the criticality of solving some of these life-threatening issues that are happening on the V-22, it really is all about providing real-time insights to the crew for situational awareness so they can make better decisions,” Shift5’s Josh Lospinoso told Defense News.
The Air Force has established a new “doomsday” wing to improve control of its nuclear arsenal, Air & Space Forces Magazine said April 1. Seriously.
And serious thanks for dropping by The Bunker this week. Kindly consider forwarding this on to fellow travelers so they can subscribe here.
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Top Image Credit: Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) holds up a copy of the U.S. Constitution as she votes yes to the second article of impeachment during a House Judiciary Committee markup of the articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump, December 13, 2019, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S. Patrick Semansky/Pool via REUTERS
A group of House Democrats is calling on the Trump administration to halt its unauthorized attacks on Yemen’s Houthis and present a legal justification for recent strikes on the rebel group.
In a letter to the White House, first reported by the Intercept, the group of more than 30 Democrats — led by Reps. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), Ro Khanna (D-Calif.); and Val Hoyle, (D-Ore.) — argues that presidents must go through Congress for a declaration of war or adjacent authorization to wield military force.
“While we share concerns about maritime security in the Red Sea, we call on your Administration to immediately cease unauthorized use of military force and instead seek specific statutory authorization from Congress before involving the U.S. in an unconstitutional conflict in the Middle East, which risks endangering U.S. military personnel in the region and escalating into a regime-change war,” the letter states.
“Congress must have the opportunity to engage in a robust debate on the rationale for offensive force and vote on its merits before U.S. servicemembers are placed in harm’s way and additional taxpayer dollars are spent on yet another Middle East war,” the letter asserts. “No president has the constitutional authority to bypass Congress on matters of war.”
“How does the Administration claim self-defense, deterrence, or response to an imminent attack as a justification for strikes, given the President’s remarks that attacks ‘will get progressively worse,’ until the Houthis are ‘completely annihilated?’” the letter asks. “What steps, if any, are being taken to mitigate further civilian casualties?”
The letter also pushed the Trump administration to justify its response to “Signalgate,” where a government officials’ group chat on messaging app Signal, which outlined plans to strike Yemen, had included Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg.
Today’s letter follows other lawmakers’ pushes for oversight regarding growing U.S. military involvement in Yemen. Previously, Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) teamed up across the political aisle in an April 1 letter, questioning the constitutionality of ongoing U.S. airstrikes in Yemen. Considering tenuous U.S.-Iran relations, they pondered whether such attacks could set the stage for further conflict with Iran.
“Congress should be briefed about the recent strikes against the Houthis and the total cost expected to be incurred by this campaign at the American taxpayer’s expense,” Paul and Merkley wrote. “The Administration must also explain to Congress and the American people its expected path forward given the failure of previous such efforts and statements from the Administration that the military campaign will continue and possibly expand to include military action against Iran.”
To date, recent U.S. military operations in Yemen have cost nearly $1 billion, all with limited impact on Houthi fighting capabilities.
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Top image credit: U.S. Vice President JD Vance tours the U.S. military's Pituffik Space Base in Greenland on March 28, 2025. Jim Watson/Pool via REUTERS
Some of President Donald Trump’s key foreign policy initiatives have not been gaining traction with most Americans, according to the results of a new survey released Tuesday by the Pew Research Center.
Majorities of the more than 3,600 respondents who participated in the poll said they opposed Trump’s suggestions that Washington should take over Greenland and Gaza, while pluralities said they disapproved of his closing of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and leaving the Paris Climate Agreement to curb greenhouse gas emissions.
A 52% majority of respondents said they also opposed Washington’s departure from the World Health Organization. Thirty-two percent said they approved of leaving both the WHO and the Paris agreement.
A 43% plurality said Trump was favoring Russia “too much” in his efforts to end the war in Ukraine, while a plurality of nearly a third of respondents (31%) said he was favoring Israel “too much” in its conflict with Palestinians. (In the latter case, 29% said Trump was “striking the right balance,” while 3% said he was favoring Palestinians. Thirty-seven percent said they weren’t sure.)
The survey, which was conducted between March 24-30, preceded the imposition by the Trump administration of across-the-board tariffs on foreign imports and the outbreak of what appears to be an escalating trade war between the United States and China. Most respondents (52%), however, predicted that tariffs on Chinese exports would have a “bad” impact on the U.S., while only 24% said the impact would be “good.”
There were major partisan differences on that question, however, with 44% of Republican or GOP-leaning respondents saying that tariffs would have a “good” impact and 24% “bad.” On the other hand, a whopping 80% of Democrats or Democratic-leaning respondents predicted the tariffs on China would have a “bad” effect on the U.S. economy, while only five percent said they would be “good” for the U.S.
Asked how the tariffs on Chinese goods would affect them personally, however, a plurality of Republicans (30%) said the impact would be “bad,” while only 17% predicted the impact would be “good.” Overall, respondents were about five times as likely to say increased tariffs on China will be bad for them as they were to say they would be beneficial.
The partisan divide also emerged with respect to the other questions raised by the survey. For example, strong majorities of Republican or Republican-leaning respondents said they approved of ending most USAID programs (64%), leaving the Paris agreement (60%), and leaving the WHO (58%). The comparable percentages for Democrats or Democratic-leaning respondents were 9%, 7%, and 8%, respectively.
Similarly, 13% of Republican or Republican-leaning respondents said the Trump administration was favoring Israelis too much, while 50% of Democrats or Democratic-leaning respondents took that position.
And while 28% of Republican or Republican-leaning respondents said they either “strongly oppose” (16%) or “somewhat oppose” the U.S. taking over Greenland, Democrats or Democratic-leaning respondents were far more hostile to the idea — 70% strongly opposed, and another 11% said they “somewhat opposed” the idea.
As for age differences, older respondents were generally more likely to approve of Trump’s early foreign policy actions than younger respondents.
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