Follow us on social

Libya-1-scaled

Getting past the nation-state of mind

The frozen conflicts of today are misunderstood. These wars aren’t vestiges of the past, but portents of transformation.

Analysis | Washington Politics

Syria, Libya, Yemen . . . and now Sudan. Sudan has the unhappy potential to become the next of the intractable conflicts that have unfolded over the past decade. These multisided struggles involving a cocktail of militaries, militias, and mercenaries drag on year after year, producing destabilizing waves of refugees, flourishing criminal cohorts, and a plague of outside meddling. Explanations abound: neglect from the outside world, interference by the outside world, weak states, overpowered states, a need for military training, an excess of military training, and the perennial favorite of West-centric analysts: the historic legacy of . . . something. It doesn’t matter what is demonized: culture, religion, colonialism, or some other trait—the key is that chaos is attributed to vestiges of an undead past.

But what if the foreign policy imagination has been looking at these wars the wrong way? What if these wars can tell us more about the future than the past? Transformations emerge at the margins of systems, but are seldom recognized by those invested in existing paradigms. 19th-century leaders in Vienna, for example, dismissed nationalist movements as delusional, yet the nation-state replaced empire as the political norm within a few decades.

The frozen conflicts of today are similarly misunderstood. These wars aren’t vestiges of the past but portents of transformation.

The State is No Longer the Prize it Once Was

Negotiations repeatedly fail to end these conflicts because they remain fixed in 20th-century assumptions of power. Negotiators proceed by rounding up “principals” who are bribed or bullied into political compromise with opposing “sides,” and who are then expected to enforce the agreement within their “base” in return for a share in state access.

Every piece of this model is broken today. The assumptions that control of the state is the prize, that principals control subordinates, and that there are “sides” and not a constantly changing constellation of armed factions are all based on yesterday’s Weberian model of the state (centralized, with a monopoly on violence).

Let’s start with the reductionist portraits of “sides” and “principals” in the wishful thinking that passes for analyses. What appear on maps as political blocs (Islamists versus democrats, government versus opposition, national armies versus paramilitaries . . .) in reality are constellations of occasionally cooperating, more often competing, micro-militia warlords making better fortunes amidst the collapse of the state than they could realistically access with its return. Human trafficking, antiquities smuggling, kidnapping, and other illicit business thrives amidst the chaos. Humanitarian aid intended for civilians feeds conflict as well: roadblocks function like cash machines. The few marketing themselves as “principals” to the outside world pursue their own variety of graft. They score travel to peace conference venues, diplomatic swag like immunity for past crimes, and a façade of decorum that bolsters their political stock, yet these principals ultimately lack the ability to restrain their supposed subordinates. The problem is the radical collapse of hierarchical control.

For the last several centuries those who controlled territory had resources non-state challengers lacked that allowed them to fund, arm, and field militaries. This idea of the “gunpowder state” evolved over the centuries to include navies, air power, missiles, and the satellite technology that tied it all together across the planet. Weaker actors who couldn’t produce these tools themselves allied themselves with state sponsors who did.

That era officially ended on September 11, 2001. Osama bin Laden was the first to act on the realization that the new communications revolution freed small groups from the need to capture or ally with a state to act globally. He could raise and move funds, recruit cohorts with proselytizing videos and free media coverage of Al Qaeda attacks, and shop the black market to acquire the kinds of tools once reserved for states. Bin Laden’s model had its parallel in evolving criminal enterprises like drug cartels, piracy, or human trafficking, which had also once been dependent on state allies to coordinate and protect their enterprises. Emerging weapons like digital surveillance, Artificial Intelligence, and cyber and germ warfare will change the picture even more radically in the years ahead, as none require traditional bases of state power.

But what these actors also have in common is the tendency to fracture. Just as extremist or criminal organizations were freed from reliance on state sponsors, subordinates have been liberated as well. Confronted with criticism from Al Qaeda for his brand of violence, bin Laden ally Abu Musab al-Zarqawi chose not to conform but to launch his own brand, Al Qaeda in Iraq, precursor to ISIS. And beneath the apparent success of the ISIS “state” were a multiplicity of franchise militias. Criminal enterprises have also lost control over subordinates, driving ferocious competition and violence in places like Mexico, Haiti or Central America. These too are the frontiers of political innovation.

Peace negotiations of today fail because they are locked into assumptions of power hierarchies based on outdated visions of the centrality of the state and the belief that key actors control the landscape of violence by controlling access to resources. This strategy will be no more successful than the Global War on Terror’s repetitive drone strikes atomizing leader after leader even as terror organizations proliferate. The 21st century is a landscape of dispersed empowerment which will require new strategies for peacemaking.

Warlords and Corporate Raiders

Modern warlords are often depicted as the antithesis of the contemporary state ideal, but they can also be understood as the bastard offspring of the neoliberal mindset that has remade the state and security industry in recent decades. Why should we be surprised that warlords pursue profit with military tools theoretically reserved for the defense of public interests within the state? How different are they from the private military and security industries which have pivoted from providing extra military muscle for their own states to behaving like any other market-seeking business? They hire talent and pursue clients based on profit potential, not national interests.

Likewise, the weapons industry prioritizes its own bottom line when it lobbies for programs and policies that grow its own business, but maybe not the public good. The state hasn’t fared much better as a role model during the last thirty years as privatization in obeisance to capitalist efficiency gutted the idea of social good. Only the pieces of the state that can aid profits, such as the judiciary which can criminalize opponents, the laws that protect property and investment over local land and water rights, and trade and investment regulations that benefit distant investors over local production, survive.

Warlords, are the corporate raiders of conflict zones. They strip off the easy lucre and eschew the expense of public service. Why should we expect anything different?

The World After the Weberian State

The erosion of the gunpowder state and the state-centric system doesn’t necessarily sentence the future to chaos. The dispersal of power and the expanding frontiers of communication have benefits as well. New networks of transnational sympathy already shape human imagination and capabilities in disaster relief, human rights campaigns, environmental activism, and health initiatives.

Humans have reinvented social forms multiple times over the past millennia and our inability to imagine alternatives to the present system doesn’t mean they won’t emerge. Just a short two centuries ago genocidal eradication of inconvenient populations went unquestioned by the powerful, humans controlled other humans as property, and the right to devastate landscapes through exploitation was undisputed. Perhaps in the future we will look back at today’s disdain for distant lives with the same disbelief we reserve for those who practiced human sacrifice in the past.

This article has been republished with permission from Public i.


December 24, 2020: A soldier holds a Libyan flag in Martyrs Square at the celebration the 69th Anniversary of Libyan Independence in Tripoli. (Shutterstock/Hussein Ebbed)
Analysis | Washington Politics
Trade review process could rock the calm in US-Mexico relations
Top image credit: Rawpixel.com and Octavio Hoyos via shutterstock.com

Trade review process could rock the calm in US-Mexico relations

North America

One of the more surprising developments of President Trump’s tenure in office thus far has been the relatively calm U.S. relationship with Mexico, despite expectations that his longstanding views on trade, immigration, and narcotics would lead to a dramatic deterioration.

Of course, Mexico has not escaped the administration’s tariff onslaught and there have been occasional diplomatic setbacks, but the tenor of ties between Trump and President Claudia Sheinbaum has been less fraught than many had anticipated. However, that thaw could be tested soon by economic disagreements as negotiations open on a scheduled review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA).

keep readingShow less
Trump Rubio
Top image credit: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio (right) is seen in the Oval Office with US President Donald Trump (left) during a meeting with the King of Jordan, Abdullah II Ibn Al-Hussein in the Oval Office the White House in Washington DC on Tuesday, February 11, 2025. Credit: Aaron Schwartz / Pool/Sipa USA via REUTERS
The US-Colombia drug war alliance is at a breaking point

Trump poised to decertify Colombia

Latin America

It appears increasingly likely that the Trump administration will move to "decertify" Colombia as a partner in its fight against global drug trafficking for the first time in 30 years.

The upcoming determination, due September 15, could trigger cuts to hundreds of millions of dollars in bilateral assistance, visa restrictions on Colombian officials, and sanctions on the country's financial system under current U.S. law. Decertification would strike a major blow to what has been Washington’s top security partner in the region as it struggles with surging coca production and expanding criminal and insurgent violence.

keep readingShow less
Trump Vance Rubio
Top image credit: President Donald Trump meets with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance before a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Monday, August 18, 2025, in the Oval Office. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

The roots of Trump's wars on terror trace back to 9/11

Global Crises

The U.S. military recently launched a plainly illegal strike on a small civilian Venezuelan boat that President Trump claims was a successful hit on “narcoterrorists.” Vice President JD Vance responded to allegations that the strike was a war crime by saying, “I don’t give a shit what you call it,” insisting this was the “highest and best use of the military.”

This is only the latest troubling development in the Trump administration’s attempt to repurpose “War on Terror” mechanisms to use the military against cartels and to expedite his much vaunted mass deportation campaign, which he says is necessary because of an "invasion" at the border.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.