Pope Francis raised eyebrows Sunday when he told reporters that he was working on a “not yet public” peace “mission” for Ukraine following recent meetings with the prime ministers of Ukraine and Hungary as well as a top cleric in the Russian Orthodox Church.
“There is a mission in course now, but it is not yet public,” the pontiff told reporters. “When it is public, I will reveal it.”
The cryptic comment set off a flurry of speculation about the nature of Francis’ plan. Vatican insiders quickly played down the “mission” after Ukrainian and Russian officials denied any knowledge of a secret peace process.
But Cardinal Pietro Parolin — who serves as the Holy See’s equivalent of a prime minister — suggested Wednesday that some sort of talks may actually be underway, telling reporters that he was “surprised” by claims that Russia and Ukraine were unaware of the mission. “I know that both sides have been informed,” Parolin added.
And economist Stefano Zamagni, one of Francis’ closest confidants, said Wednesday that the supposed plan does indeed exist, adding that it could yield results in a few months. “It is obvious that both the Kremlin and Kyiv deny it because there is still no official document,” Zamagni said in an interview with a leading Italian daily.
So what does all this mean? Is there really a secret papal peace plan? Why would the Holy See — famed for its discretion in diplomacy — reveal the effort before it has borne fruit? Are Ukrainian and Russian leaders simply playing coy in order to avoid backlash at home?
For now, there is no clear answer to these questions. But it’s worth noting that the pontiff’s mediator credentials are stronger than they may seem on the surface. The Holy See has a long history of encouraging diplomatic reconciliation and played a crucial role in the restoration of ties between Cuba and the United States under President Barack Obama. The pope has also been involved in efforts to lower the temperature in Ukraine as far back as 2014, and his diplomats have helped facilitate multiple prisoner swaps since Russia’s full-scale invasion last year.
Of course, credentials alone do not guarantee that the pontiff will succeed in his efforts. Kyiv and Moscow’s public positions on negotiations remain quite far apart, and neither side seems anxious to moderate their stances.
Despite the long odds, Francis will surely continue to push for an end to the war, both in public and in private. His papacy has largely been defined by his focus on creating a “culture of encounter” that privileges face-to-face interactions with people of all stripes. For Francis, the very fact of sitting down with an enemy or competitor can lead to unexpected breakthroughs. And who could blame a pope for believing in miracles?
In other diplomatic news related to the war in Ukraine:
— As Ukraine prepares for its long-awaited counteroffensive, some in Kyiv think that it may be “time to put out feelers” for potential negotiations with Moscow, according to the Times. The British daily cited an anonymous “Western diplomat” who recounted a “surreal parallel experience” in which Ukrainian officials “discuss potential formats for negotiations” in private before deploring the very idea of talks in public.
— Fallout from the Discord leaks continued this week as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed in an interview with the Washington Post that he first learned of the documents from the news. Ukrainian officials have reportedly reduced information sharing with the United States due to the leaks, and some have expressed frustration with the fact that the documents relied on “signals intelligence,” meaning that Washington has been spying on some of Kyiv’s top brass.
— Zelensky made a surprise trip to Finland this week, where he met with leaders from various Nordic countries, according to the New York Times. His meetings reportedly focused on the war as well as Ukrainian relations with (and potential accession to) the European Union and NATO. Zelensky extended the trip with a stopover in The Hague in the Netherlands, where he reiterated his prior calls for a special tribunal to prosecute Russian officials for war crimes. “We all want to see [a] different Vladimir in The Hague,” Zelensky said during a speech at the International Criminal Court.
— President Xi Jinping may have cut his recent visit to Moscow short due to tensions with his Russian counterpart, according to anonymous Ukrainian officials who spoke with the Financial Times. If true, the news would significantly complicate the narrative of China’s “no limits friendship” with Russia, giving Beijing more credibility as a potential mediator for peace talks. Notably, the FT piece also claimed that “after some internal debate, the Biden administration has decided not to dismiss the Chinese peace initiative out of hand, but instead to try to mould it.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken appeared to confirm this shift in a conversation with the Washington Post in which he cited “positive” items in China’s peace proposal. “In principle, there’s nothing wrong with that if we have a country, whether it’s China or other countries that have significant influence that are prepared to pursue a just and durable peace,” Blinken said. “We would welcome that, and it’s certainly possible that China would have a role to play in that effort.”
U.S. State Department news:
State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel punted when asked whether the United States supports Ukraine’s bid to join NATO. “This obviously is a collective decision, and it would be something for the entire alliance to determine,” Patel said. “What we are focused on now is ensuring that we can support our Ukrainian partners to take on the challenges that they are facing currently.”
