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Diplomacy Watch: White House signals that retaking Crimea is in the cards

Diplomacy Watch: White House signals that retaking Crimea is in the cards

Experts warn that it’s an escalation, but officials say it has been US policy all along.

Analysis | Europe

The New York Times ran a report on Wednesday saying that the United States was “warming” to the idea of helping Ukraine target Crimea. 

Washington — while maintaining that the peninsula is a part of Ukraine — has to this point been hesitant to provide Kyiv with the necessary weaponry to strike against Russia in Crimea. If accurate, this report could mark a significant evolution in the thinking of American officials compared to a year ago when Russia invaded Ukraine and when, as the Times puts it “they were wary of even acknowledging publicly that the United States was providing Stinger antiaircraft missiles for Ukrainian troops.” 

It is unclear what precise larger strategy the United States is pursuing. The leak of this change in approach is perhaps an attempt to gain leverage. As the Times story notes, “the Biden administration does not think that Ukraine can take Crimea militarily (…) But, officials said, their assessment now is that Russia needs to believe that Crimea is at risk, in part to strengthen Ukraine’s position in any future negotiations.” 

But even if the goal is to eventually gain leverage in negotiations, such a decision could carry risks in the short term. “Helping Ukraine to threaten Russia's hold on Crimea is not in U.S. interests,” wrote James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, in a Twitter thread that laid out the possible rationales and ramifications of this report. The thread later read “For a range of political and strategic reasons, I believe that the risks of Putin's using nuclear weapons would go up significantly, if he believes his hold on Crimea is threatened.”

The reporting suggests that the administration’s possible pivot to what the Times calls “one of its boldest moves yet” is motivated in part by officials’ belief that the risk of Russia retaliating by deploying tactical nuclear weapons has diminished, though not disappeared. There is no clear evidence as to why this fear is reduced, and, as Stephen Wertheim, senior fellow at the Carnegie, argues on Twitter “the fact that Russia has not used nuclear weapons yet is poor evidence that it would not do so to protect Crimea.” For its part, Moscow has continued its nuclear saber-rattling. In a post on the Telegram messaging app this week, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned, “The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war.”

In two separate press briefings this week, spokespeople for the administration did not directly dispute the reporting, though they did downplay its significance, saying that the United States has always considered Crimea to be a part of Ukraine and that that has not changed. 

At the State Department on Wednesday, Ned Price said “Crimea is Ukraine. We are, of course, not making targeting decisions on behalf of our Ukrainian partners. These decisions are up to them. But as you know, the United States and countries around the world have never recognized Russia’s purported annexation of parts of eastern Ukraine or its purported annexation of Crimea. (...)  We have provided our Ukrainian partners with precisely what they need to take on the threat where it is raging most violently. Right now that is in the east, it’s in the Donbas. This has been the case for some time.”

The following day, Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh doubled down, saying that the Department of Defense would continue its support of Ukraine as long as necessary. “That includes an operation in Crimea. That is a sovereign part of their country and they have every right to take that back.” 

In other diplomatic news related to the war in Ukraine:

—A high-level U.S-delegation, which included Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman, and Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer traveled to Kyiv on Monday to meet with President Zelensky and other senior Ukrainian officials. According to a Pentagon readout, the purpose of the trip was to “reaffirm the United States' strong and steadfast commitment to Ukraine and its defense against Russia's unprovoked aggression.”

—A number of countries are preparing to send substantial arms packages to Ukraine: The United Kingdom will send fourteen tanks and other sophisticated military equipment; the U.S. is expected to announce a major new weapons package for Ukraine, including additional artillery, ammunition, and armored vehicles; the Netherlands plans to send a Patriot missile defense; and Poland—which last week pledged to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine—and Lithuania pressured Germany to send their own tanks.

—Germany’s defense minister, Christine Lambrecht, resigned Monday, amid questions surrounding Berlin’s response to the war in Ukraine. 

— Top U.S. and European defense officials will meet at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Friday to discuss the war in Ukraine. In RS on Thursday, Anatol Lieven laid out the key questions these defense chiefs should —but likely will not— be asking themselves.

—The Washington Post reported on Thursday that CIA director Bill Burns had a secret meeting with Zelensky in Kyiv late last week to brief the Ukrainian president on expectations regarding Russia's military plans in the coming weeks and months.

U.S. State Department news:
The State Department held its regular press briefing on Wednesday.


Analysis | Europe
Trump Zelensky
Top photo credit: Joshua Sukoff / Shutterstock.com

Blob exploiting Trump's anger with Putin, risking return to Biden's war

Europe

Donald Trump’s recent outburst against Vladimir Putin — accusing the Russian leader of "throwing a pile of bullsh*t at us" and threatening devastating new sanctions — might be just another Trumpian tantrum.

The president is known for abrupt reversals. Or it could be a bargaining tactic ahead of potential Ukraine peace talks. But there’s a third, more troubling possibility: establishment Republican hawks and neoconservatives, who have been maneuvering to hijack Trump’s “America First” agenda since his return to office, may be exploiting his frustration with Putin to push for a prolonged confrontation with Russia.

Trump’s irritation is understandable. Ukraine has accepted his proposed ceasefire, but Putin has refused, making him, in Trump’s eyes, the main obstacle to ending the war.

Putin’s calculus is clear. As Ted Snider notes in the American Conservative, Russia is winning on the battlefield. In June, it captured more Ukrainian territory and now threatens critical Kyiv’s supply lines. Moscow also seized a key lithium deposit critical to securing Trump’s support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone strikes have intensified.

Putin seems convinced his key demands — Ukraine’s neutrality, territorial concessions in the Donbas and Crimea, and a downsized Ukrainian military — are more achievable through war than diplomacy.

Yet his strategy empowers the transatlantic “forever war” faction: leaders in Britain, France, Germany, and the EU, along with hawks in both main U.S. parties. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claims that diplomacy with Russia is “exhausted.” Europe’s war party, convinced a Russian victory would inevitably lead to an attack on NATO (a suicidal prospect for Moscow), is willing to fight “to the last Ukrainian.” Meanwhile, U.S. hawks, including liberal interventionist Democrats, stoke Trump’s ego, framing failure to stand up to Putin’s defiance as a sign of weakness or appeasement.

Trump long resisted this pressure. Pragmatism told him Ukraine couldn’t win, and calling it “Biden’s war” was his way of distancing himself, seeking a quick exit to refocus on China, which he has depicted as Washington’s greater foreign threat. At least as important, U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine has been unpopular with his MAGA base.

But his June strikes on Iran may signal a hawkish shift. By touting them as a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program (despite Tehran’s refusal so far to abandon uranium enrichment), Trump may be embracing a new approach to dealing with recalcitrant foreign powers: offer a deal, set a deadline, then unleash overwhelming force if rejected. The optics of “success” could tempt him to try something similar with Russia.

This pivot coincides with a media campaign against restraint advocates within the administration like Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon policy chief who has prioritized China over Ukraine and also provoked the opposition of pro-Israel neoconservatives by warning against war with Iran. POLITICO quoted unnamed officials attacking Colby for wanting the U.S. to “do less in the world.” Meanwhile, the conventional Republican hawk Marco Rubio’s influence grows as he combines the jobs of both secretary of state and national security adviser.

What Can Trump Actually Do to Russia?
 

Nuclear deterrence rules out direct military action — even Biden, far more invested in Ukraine than Trump, avoided that risk. Instead, Trump ally Sen.Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), another establishment Republican hawk, is pushing a 500% tariff on nations buying Russian hydrocarbons, aiming to sever Moscow from the global economy. Trump seems supportive, although the move’s feasibility and impact are doubtful.

China and India are key buyers of Russian oil. China alone imports 12.5 million barrels daily. Russia exports seven million barrels daily. China could absorb Russia’s entire output. Beijing has bluntly stated it “cannot afford” a Russian defeat, ensuring Moscow’s economic lifeline remains open.

The U.S., meanwhile, is ill-prepared for a tariff war with China. When Trump imposed 145% tariffs, Beijing retaliated by cutting off rare earth metals exports, vital to U.S. industry and defense. Trump backed down.

At the G-7 summit in Canada last month, the EU proposed lowering price caps on Russian oil from $60 a barrel to $45 a barrel as part of its 18th sanctions package against Russia. Trump rejected the proposal at the time but may be tempted to reconsider, given his suggestion that more sanctions may be needed. Even if Washington backs the measure now, however, it is unlikely to cripple Russia’s war machine.

Another strategy may involve isolating Russia by peeling away Moscow’s traditionally friendly neighbors. Here, Western mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan isn’t about peace — if it were, pressure would target Baku, which has stalled agreements and threatened renewed war against Armenia. The real goal is to eject Russia from the South Caucasus and create a NATO-aligned energy corridor linking Turkey to Central Asia, bypassing both Russia and Iran to their detriment.

Central Asia itself is itself emerging as a new battleground. In May 2025, the EU has celebrated its first summit with Central Asian nations in Uzbekistan, with a heavy focus on developing the Middle Corridor, a route for transportation of energy and critical raw materials that would bypass Russia. In that context, the EU has committed €10 billion in support of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

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Top image credit: People line up to buy bread, after Syria's Bashar al-Assad was ousted, in Douma, on the outskirts of Damascus, Syria December 23, 2024. REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra

Lifting sanctions on Syria exposes their cruel intent

Middle East

On June 30, President Trump signed an executive order terminating the majority of U.S. sanctions on Syria. The move, which would have been unthinkable mere months ago, fulfilled a promise he made at an investment forum in Riyadh in May.“The sanctions were brutal and crippling,” he had declared to an audience of primarily Saudi businessmen. Lifting them, he said, will “give Syria a chance at greatness.”

The significance of this statement lies not solely in the relief that it will bring to the Syrian people. His remarks revealed an implicit but rarely admitted truth: sanctions — often presented as a peaceful alternative to war — have been harming the Syrian people all along.

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Taipei skyline, Taiwan. (Shutterstock/ YAO23)

The 8-point buzzsaw facing any invasion of Taiwan

Asia-Pacific

For the better part of a decade, China has served as the “pacing threat” around which American military planners craft defense policy and, most importantly, budget decisions.

Within that framework, a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan has become the scenario most often cited as the likeliest flashpoint for a military confrontation between the two superpowers.

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