Follow us on social

Diplomacy Watch: Putin’s annexation plan will tank chances for near-term peace

Diplomacy Watch: Putin’s annexation plan will tank chances for near-term peace

Following sham referendums in eastern Ukraine, Russia is poised to ruin the possibility of ending his war in the short term.

Analysis | Europe

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly plans to annex nearly 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory today following referendums that have been widely criticized as shams in four largely Russian-held oblasts. If he follows through, the move will all but destroy chances of a near-term diplomatic settlement to the conflict.

As Eugene Chausovsky of the Newlines Institute recently noted, the war has been at something of a crossroads in recent weeks, giving each side the option to pursue escalation or shift gears and give negotiations a chance. It looks like Putin is all-in on escalation.

The news of likely annexation comes alongside reports that Western officials are also preparing for a long-term conflict. Following a meeting in Brussels, NATO leaders committed to ramp up production of weapons in order to arm Ukraine for years to come.

In other words, Ukraine is most likely headed for a protracted, years-long war.

As months turn into years, casualties will continue to rise, and the risk of escalation to a cataclysmic nuclear war between Russia and the United States will remain uncomfortably high. If recent news is any indication, that sword of Damocles will hang over our heads for a long time to come.

In other diplomatic news related to the war in Ukraine:

— Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned Russia’s referendums in a Wednesday call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, according to Kyiv’s readout of the conversation. Erdogan spoke with Putin the next day, urging him to extend the grain exports deal and seek a settlement to the conflict. The pair of calls come a week after Erdogan claimed Putin is ready to end the war “as soon as possible.”

— On Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told 60 Minutes that there have been no peace talks because Russia “has not demonstrated any willingness” to start “meaningful” negotiations. “If and when that changes, we will do everything we can to support a diplomatic process,” Blinken added.

— American diplomats are putting pressure on Russia’s “regional friends and foes” to dissuade Putin from using nuclear weapons, according to a “senior State Department official” who spoke with Politico. The official didn’t specify which countries the United States is pressuring, but China and India are the most likely targets given their close ties to the Kremlin.

U.S. State Department News:

State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Wednesday that the United States will not discourage Ukraine from using American weapons to attack territories that Russia has annexed, including Crimea, despite Russian threats to use nukes in response to attacks on its perceived territorial integrity. “The targets they select are the targets they select,” Price said, arguing that all decisions on Ukrainian military strategy should be left to Kyiv.


Analysis | Europe
Latin America's hidden role in shaping US foreign policy
Top image credit: President Getulio Vargas of Brazil confers with President Franklin D. Roosevelt at a conference aboard a U.S. destroyer in the Potengi River harbor at Natal, January 1943 (via US LIBRARY OF CONGRESS)

Latin America's hidden role in shaping US foreign policy

Latin America

For much of the Washington D.C. foreign policy apparatus, Latin America — a region plagued by economic instability, political upheaval, and social calamity — represents little more than a headache or an after-thought.

Not for Greg Grandin.

keep readingShow less
US Navy Red Sea Houthis
The USS Carney intercepts Houthi missiles in the Red Sea on Oct. 19, 2023. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Aaron Lau/ Public domain)

US missile depletion from Houthi, Israel conflicts may shock you

Military Industrial Complex

Historic levels of air defense missiles were expended by U.S. Navy ships in the Middle East in defense of Israel and in protection of Red Sea shipping since October of 2023. This led Admiral James Kilby, Naval Operations acting chief, to testify in June that their ship-launched air defense interceptors — SM-3s — are being expended at an “alarming rate” in defense of Israel.

But just how alarmed should we really be?

keep readingShow less
Hiroshima
Top image credit: Dennis MacDonald / Shutterstock.com

Symposium: Why was Japan the only nuclear holocaust in 80 yrs?

Global Crises

Eighty years ago today, August 6, 1945, the U.S. military dropped an atomic weapon nicknamed “Little Boy” on the city Hiroshima, Japan, resulting in a blast equivalent of 15 kilotons of TNT, killing approximately 66,000 people immediately and some 100,000 more, the vast majority civilians, by the end of 1945.

Three days later, the U.S. deployed another nuclear bomb — this one “Fat Man” — on the Japanese city of Nagasaki, leaving upwards of 80,000 people dead by the end of the year.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.