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2022-08-08t120808z_350965365_rc27sv9i29ms_rtrmadp_3_religion-ashura-yemen-scaled

Yemen needs more than military parades and anniversary parties

Recent Houthi celebrations are a bit tone deaf — the people here need food and salaries — and the ceasefire is expiring in just over a week.

Analysis | Middle East

SANA'A, YEMEN — Houthi helicopters hovering over the capital on Wednesday morning woke Omar Hanash at 9 a.m. The rebels had declared the day a public holiday so people could celebrate the 8th anniversary of the Houthi take-over of the capital, but Hanash decided to go to the streets in the Sawan area of Sana'a instead to collect bottles and cartons to be used as firewood.

"I live on a food basket from the United Nations and I use the cartons as firewood because I can't afford cooking gas," Hanash told Responsible Statecraft on the afternoon of Sept. 21. "Without the food basket, I would have been starved, and to go celebrating this situation is madness."

Hanash is one of over 23 million people the United Nations says need humanitarian assistance in Yemen today. According to the World Food Programme, the civil war there has made Yemen “the world's worst humanitarian crisis.” 

Hanash, who works as a public servant at the Cleaning and Improvement Fund, complained that Houthi authorities gave him a one-time payment of 20,000 Yemeni riyals ($36) in lieu of his actual salary. He and other public servants in Sana'a criticized Wednesday's military parade because they said their salaries have not been paid, and their economic situations have been moving from bad to worse.

"The Saudi war has weakened the Houthis using warplanes like F16, but the Houthis are parading with old-fashioned helicopters," said Hanash, 55.

There had been no Houthi-sponsored military parades since the Saudi intervention in March 2015, but once the UN-brokered truce went into effect on April 2, the rebel group has hosted several such events — in Dhamar, Amran, Hodeidah, and Sana'a. The UN  expressed concern about the parade in Hodeidah and considered it a violation of the Hodeidah Agreement.

The September parade in Sana'a was the first time the Houthis displayed helicopters captured from the internationally recognized government when they took over the capital city eight years ago. Although the Saudi-led coalition targeted warplanes at Sana'a Airport in that time, it is not clear yet where the Houthis kept these helicopters safe.

Video footage for one helicopter showed it dropping sweets to celebrate what Houthis call the "21 September Revolution" when they led the uprising that forced the government in Sana's, led by President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, to resign.

"If they are honest, they will distribute wheat for starving people begging at Sana'a streets," Ali, who agreed to give his first name, told Responsible Statecraft in Sana'a. "My father is a retired officer without a salary since 2017 and he insults Houthis day and night."

Following the Houthis' takeover of Sana'a, they signed a Peace and National Partnership Agreement with their rivals under the auspices of the United Nations. But their negotiations with Yemeni parties over executing its terms ended with Houthis clashing with Presidential Guards in January 2015 when they surrounded the presidential palace and put Hadi under house arrest.

On Jan. 23, 2015, Hadi played his final card and announced his resignation. On Feb. 10, 2015, the United States closed its embassy in Sana'a and Reuters reported "U.S. officials in Washington who confirmed the embassy would close because of the unpredictable security situation in a country where a rebel group has seized control of the capital, Sana'a."

However, former president Hadi escaped Houthis' house arrest in Sana'a and fled to Aden on Feb. 21. He rescinded his resignation and insists that he is still the president.

This week, former U.S. Ambassador to Yemen Gerald M. Feierstein published an article at Foreign Policy, saying the "Houthis have a poor track record in negotiations. But giving up on negotiating with them isn’t an option."

Meanwhile, the U.S. envoy to Yemen Tim Lenderking has been working on efforts to extend and expand the current UN-brokered truce in Yemen between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia for another six months. 

The State Department said Lenderking returned to Washington on Sept. 14 from travel to the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Oman.

“All counterparts expressed their support for an expanded truce agreement that includes paying civil servants, improving freedom of movement through road openings, moving fuel quickly through the ports, and expanding commercial flights from Sana’a airport," the State Department said in a statement. "The United States remains committed to advancing efforts to secure a durable and inclusive peace agreement for all Yemenis that includes their calls for justice and accountability."

The Houthis' conditions for expanding the truce is that public servants in areas under their control be paid salaries from revenues of the oil and gas that the internationally recognized government sells. However, the Saudi-backed government says Houthis should pay the salaries from revenues of Hodeidah port under Houthis' control.

This is just one potential roadblock as Yemen remains at a crossroads ahead of the expiring truce on October 2. At that point the parties will have to choose the fate of this embattled nation — war or peace. They also have to choose the people — feeding them, paying their salaries, allowing them to rebuild. This will be a long journey.


Houthi supporters rally to mark the Ashura day in Sanaa, Yemen August 8, 2022. REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah
Analysis | Middle East
Trump Zelensky
Top photo credit: Joshua Sukoff / Shutterstock.com

Blob exploiting Trump's anger with Putin, risking return to Biden's war

Europe

Donald Trump’s recent outburst against Vladimir Putin — accusing the Russian leader of "throwing a pile of bullsh*t at us" and threatening devastating new sanctions — might be just another Trumpian tantrum.

The president is known for abrupt reversals. Or it could be a bargaining tactic ahead of potential Ukraine peace talks. But there’s a third, more troubling possibility: establishment Republican hawks and neoconservatives, who have been maneuvering to hijack Trump’s “America First” agenda since his return to office, may be exploiting his frustration with Putin to push for a prolonged confrontation with Russia.

Trump’s irritation is understandable. Ukraine has accepted his proposed ceasefire, but Putin has refused, making him, in Trump’s eyes, the main obstacle to ending the war.

Putin’s calculus is clear. As Ted Snider notes in the American Conservative, Russia is winning on the battlefield. In June, it captured more Ukrainian territory and now threatens critical Kyiv’s supply lines. Moscow also seized a key lithium deposit critical to securing Trump’s support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone strikes have intensified.

Putin seems convinced his key demands — Ukraine’s neutrality, territorial concessions in the Donbas and Crimea, and a downsized Ukrainian military — are more achievable through war than diplomacy.

Yet his strategy empowers the transatlantic “forever war” faction: leaders in Britain, France, Germany, and the EU, along with hawks in both main U.S. parties. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claims that diplomacy with Russia is “exhausted.” Europe’s war party, convinced a Russian victory would inevitably lead to an attack on NATO (a suicidal prospect for Moscow), is willing to fight “to the last Ukrainian.” Meanwhile, U.S. hawks, including liberal interventionist Democrats, stoke Trump’s ego, framing failure to stand up to Putin’s defiance as a sign of weakness or appeasement.

Trump long resisted this pressure. Pragmatism told him Ukraine couldn’t win, and calling it “Biden’s war” was his way of distancing himself, seeking a quick exit to refocus on China, which he has depicted as Washington’s greater foreign threat. At least as important, U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine has been unpopular with his MAGA base.

But his June strikes on Iran may signal a hawkish shift. By touting them as a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program (despite Tehran’s refusal so far to abandon uranium enrichment), Trump may be embracing a new approach to dealing with recalcitrant foreign powers: offer a deal, set a deadline, then unleash overwhelming force if rejected. The optics of “success” could tempt him to try something similar with Russia.

This pivot coincides with a media campaign against restraint advocates within the administration like Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon policy chief who has prioritized China over Ukraine and also provoked the opposition of pro-Israel neoconservatives by warning against war with Iran. POLITICO quoted unnamed officials attacking Colby for wanting the U.S. to “do less in the world.” Meanwhile, the conventional Republican hawk Marco Rubio’s influence grows as he combines the jobs of both secretary of state and national security adviser.

What Can Trump Actually Do to Russia?
 

Nuclear deterrence rules out direct military action — even Biden, far more invested in Ukraine than Trump, avoided that risk. Instead, Trump ally Sen.Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), another establishment Republican hawk, is pushing a 500% tariff on nations buying Russian hydrocarbons, aiming to sever Moscow from the global economy. Trump seems supportive, although the move’s feasibility and impact are doubtful.

China and India are key buyers of Russian oil. China alone imports 12.5 million barrels daily. Russia exports seven million barrels daily. China could absorb Russia’s entire output. Beijing has bluntly stated it “cannot afford” a Russian defeat, ensuring Moscow’s economic lifeline remains open.

The U.S., meanwhile, is ill-prepared for a tariff war with China. When Trump imposed 145% tariffs, Beijing retaliated by cutting off rare earth metals exports, vital to U.S. industry and defense. Trump backed down.

At the G-7 summit in Canada last month, the EU proposed lowering price caps on Russian oil from $60 a barrel to $45 a barrel as part of its 18th sanctions package against Russia. Trump rejected the proposal at the time but may be tempted to reconsider, given his suggestion that more sanctions may be needed. Even if Washington backs the measure now, however, it is unlikely to cripple Russia’s war machine.

Another strategy may involve isolating Russia by peeling away Moscow’s traditionally friendly neighbors. Here, Western mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan isn’t about peace — if it were, pressure would target Baku, which has stalled agreements and threatened renewed war against Armenia. The real goal is to eject Russia from the South Caucasus and create a NATO-aligned energy corridor linking Turkey to Central Asia, bypassing both Russia and Iran to their detriment.

Central Asia itself is itself emerging as a new battleground. In May 2025, the EU has celebrated its first summit with Central Asian nations in Uzbekistan, with a heavy focus on developing the Middle Corridor, a route for transportation of energy and critical raw materials that would bypass Russia. In that context, the EU has committed €10 billion in support of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

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Lifting sanctions on Syria exposes their cruel intent

Middle East

On June 30, President Trump signed an executive order terminating the majority of U.S. sanctions on Syria. The move, which would have been unthinkable mere months ago, fulfilled a promise he made at an investment forum in Riyadh in May.“The sanctions were brutal and crippling,” he had declared to an audience of primarily Saudi businessmen. Lifting them, he said, will “give Syria a chance at greatness.”

The significance of this statement lies not solely in the relief that it will bring to the Syrian people. His remarks revealed an implicit but rarely admitted truth: sanctions — often presented as a peaceful alternative to war — have been harming the Syrian people all along.

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Taipei skyline, Taiwan. (Shutterstock/ YAO23)

The 8-point buzzsaw facing any invasion of Taiwan

Asia-Pacific

For the better part of a decade, China has served as the “pacing threat” around which American military planners craft defense policy and, most importantly, budget decisions.

Within that framework, a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan has become the scenario most often cited as the likeliest flashpoint for a military confrontation between the two superpowers.

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