Follow us on social

6077130876_fa4f4afa8e_k

Think COVID has stunted growth? Try 30 years of conflict.

Readers are stunned at what 12 months of COVID have done to US children. Imagine how a generation of Iraqis have fared under our wars.

Analysis | Middle East

The New York Times reported this morning that the pandemic reversed 20 years of progress in reading and math among elementary school students in the United States. Commentators emphasized the dire effect this would have on life prospects for these children and, by implication, the American economy at an especially challenging moment in its history. 

These are easy to imagine. The structure of the labor market increasingly demands greater computational and literacy skills; upward financial and social mobility hinges on successful navigation of this market. And administrative states, such as the U.S., require these skills in the labor force for effective governance, let alone national defense. So, the impact of the pandemic on education and therefore on the nation’s future will be profound.

This awful news should help Americans better understand the effects of violent conflict and economic sanctions on countries around the world. Their populations have been battered by the equivalent of terrible pandemics every year. When we observe political instability, a shattered middle class, high poverty rates, and poor economic performance in say, Iraq, it is easy to blame these conditions on intrinsic social defects. 

While cultural factors might play a role, they are difficult to define and nearly impossible to measure.  Other, secular factors, especially the destruction of educational systems and psychological and nutritional effects on children who grow up to participate and shape their countries’ lives can be observed and quantified. 

The Iraqi educational and public health systems have been under severe stress since the first Gulf War.  Following that short sharp conflict, the UN imposed sanctions on Iraq that compounded and prolonged the effects of the war itself. Scarcity, inflation, diminished administrative capacity, bouts of renewed fighting severely damaged schooling and children’s health.

The second Gulf War and the civil war it triggered finished what the first war and twelve years of sanctions started.  The proverbial lost generation is now responsible for their country’s well being. But traumatized by war and poorly educated, they are not especially well-equipped for this momentous task.  Scholars have documented similar correlations between educational shortfalls due to conflict and sanctions and adverse political and economic outcomes further down the road. The Quincy Institute has documented the demolition of Syria’s educational and public health delivery systems by war and sanctions. 

As we in the United States cope with the longer-term effects of a single pandemic on American children, we should think about the consequences for war torn and sanctioned societies of educational deprivation for, among other things, political stability. The costs of conflict and message sending via damage to the minds and bodies of children can be extremely high. 


Children who fled the escalating violence in the southern part of Iraq share a small house with relatives in Turaq. 04/07/2011. Erbil, Iraq. UN Photo/Bikem/Flickr
Analysis | Middle East
United States Iran nuclear talks
Top photo credit: LukeOnTheRoad/Shutterstock

'Zero enrichment' fantasies will lead us to war

Middle East

President Donald Trump told reporters Monday that “very good things” are happening in his nuclear diplomacy with Iran, adding, “I think they’re being very reasonable thus far.” His optimistic tone was echoed by Iranian diplomats and Omani mediators, with Iran’s foreign minister describing the talks this weekend as “more serious” and “more detailed” than past meetings. Yet behind the upbeat rhetoric, a more complex and challenging reality is taking shape.

While earlier rounds made progress toward limiting—though not eliminating—Iran’s nuclear enrichment, even prompting parallel technical discussions, the latest round saw a slight reversal. The setback stemmed from the U.S. insistence on the unrealistic demand that Iran abandon domestic enrichment entirely.

keep readingShow less
Hasan Piker
Top credit: Hasan Piker/Zoom screenshot

Hasan Piker: What feds don't want you to think about my detention

Media



keep readingShow less
Rafał Trzaskowski Karol Nawrocki Poland elections
Top photo credit: Polish presidential candidates Rafał Trzaskowski (Shuttterstock/Longfin Media) and Karol Nawrocki (Tomasz Warszewski/shutterstock)

Polish elections: One place where the war isn't splitting voters

Europe

WARSAW, POLAND — Although there are surprisingly few candidate banners in the streets of Warsaw these days, Poland finds itself in the throes of a presidential election, which will take place on Sunday.

If, as expected, no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, a second round between the two leading candidates will take place in two weeks time.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.