For twenty years, the United States and its close allies have focused on Afghanistan and Pakistan largely due to the threat of terrorism. But the climate change show of force unleashed on Pakistan this August should raise alarms in capitals the world over. Its destructive power dwarfs the conventional threats that preoccupy world leaders.
Immediate aid is a welcome first step. This week, the United States announced that it is providing $30,000,000 USD to Pakistan for flood relief — still less than the $70 million pledged in 2010, but not insignificant. But this must be accompanied by serious structural reforms in the West and coordination with frontline countries most immediately impacted by climate change. If not, Washington is merely paying interest on a fast accruing climate time bomb. The effects of climate change on North America and Europe are noteworthy but not yet severe enough to wake us from our collective slumber on this issue. The horrors faced by the people of Pakistan should be our wake-up call.
Ideally, we should assist the people of Pakistan out of a sense of collective global responsibility for a climate change crisis that is largely driven by the world’s most industrialized nations. But if altruism and humanitarian incentives are not enough, then we should take action for our own security.
Pakistan’s 2010 floods occurred in the backdrop of the U.S. surge in Afghanistan. This is important for two reasons: A large U.S. troop presence next door made the logistics of helping out easier, and Washington had an incentive to improve ties with Pakistan. But there are still many reasons for Washington to be concerned about the stability of Pakistan and other countries disproportionately impacted by climate change. The current floods in Pakistan have directly affected over 33 million people and that number is climbing. Tent cities have popped up along the sides of highways and entire communities have been erased from the map. This will have troubling long-term effects that extend for years to come. Crops were destroyed, which will assuredly increase food insecurity. Mass migration to urban centers will place increased stress on infrastructure already teetering on the edge. Extremists and non-state actors may capitalize on resentment felt by the displaced. As the worst effects of climate change become irreversible, these events will spread across the world.
The hard choices of what to do about climate change will always occur in the backdrop of seemingly high priority threats and goals. This is what makes climate change so dangerous. It requires collective and sustained global action — something that has historically been difficult to achieve. It is time that we accept that climate change presents an existential threat to life as we know it and is already here.
Adam Weinstein is Deputy Director of the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute, whose current research focuses on security and rule of law in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq.
A flood victim wades through flood water, following rains and floods during the monsoon season in Bajara village, Sehwan, Pakistan, August 31, 2022. REUTERS/Yasir Rajput
On Monday Israel’s parliamentary body known as the Knesset passedtwo laws banning the United Nations’ Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA) from operating in Israel, and in regions under Israel’s control.
This comes months after Israel claimed that members of UNRWA were either in Hamas or had Hamas connections, even asserting that some participated in the Oct. 7 attacks of last year. An independent review found that claims of widespread Hamas infiltration had no basis, but that some members did hold sympathies for Hamas, even as the organization pushed heavily for neutrality. These claims led the United States and other donor countries to pause funding to the organization back in January of 2024. Some of those countries have since reinstated funding.
For its part, UNRWA is a vital aid service for Palestinian refugees in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan. The organization estimates that there are over 1.7 million Palestinian refugees across its areas of service. It provides social safety net assistance, maintaining Palestinian records, and seeking refugee empowerment. The organization claims that 202 personnel have been killed in Gaza ever since the recent war with Hamas began.
American as well as UNRWA spokespeople have criticized the new Israeli laws.“The vote by the Israeli parliament against UNRWA this evening is unprecedented and sets a dangerous precedent,” said Philippe Lazzarini, UNRWA’s commissioner-general. “It opposes the UN Charter and violates the State of Israel’s obligations under international law."
Echoing his concern, U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller told reporters that UNRWA “plays an irreplaceable role in Gaza… there’s nobody who can replace them right now in the middle of the crisis.” He urged Israel to pause the implementation of this legislation.
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Top photo credit: A general view of Tehran after several explosions were heard, in Tehran, Iran, October 26, 2024. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS
The Israeli attack is over, but the outcome remains unclear. Tehran is downplaying it — even mocking it — which may be more reflective of their desire to de-escalate than a true assessment of the damage Israel inflicted on Iran.
Just as Israel kept the damage of Iran's Oct. 1 strikes secret, Iran will likely not disclose the full picture of Israel's strike, although Tehran has reported that the strikes killed two members of Iran's regular army (which is separate from the IRGC).
Indeed, another red line was crossed in this Israeli attack, lowering the cost of crossing it going forward.
Thus, while we may see some tactical de-escalation, the trajectory remains escalatory.
The Biden team, however, may draw a sigh of relief if Iran exercises restraint, as a major conflict right before the elections may be evaded.
But in the larger scheme of things, that may prove to be of little consolation if Biden wastes this pause once more by failing to use it to truly de-escalate the situation by forcing a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon.
The U.S. has the leverage to stop Israel's slaughter, but Biden has thus far refused to exercise that leverage. How many rounds of bombings can Israel and Iran engage in before it blows up into a full-scale war that engulfs the entire region?
In May, the Department of Justice charged Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) and his wife Imelda Cuellar with bribery and acting as unregistered foreign agents of Azerbaijan. Cuellar—who was the Co-Chair of the Congressional Azerbaijan Caucus—allegedly accepted at least $360,000 from companies controlled by Azerbaijan in exchange for, among other things, shooting down Congressional efforts to support Armenian separatists in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and “consulting representatives of Azerbaijan on their efforts to lobby the United States government.”
Despite Cuellar’s indictment, Azerbaijan is still looking to skirt the Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), the foreign influence law that requires lobbyists to register and disclose their work for foreign principals.
POLITICO Influence reported on Thursday that Azerbaijan “recently asked Washington lobbyists that it was considering working with to not register under FARA for work they considered necessary to register for.” One lobbyist told POLITICO that they were being “asked to set up meetings that they believe would have violated FARA.”
Azerbaijan’s brazen demand reportedly comes from a high-level official. Deputy Foreign Minister Elnur Mammadov told the firm that “the contact was contingent on there being no FARA registration,” causing the firm to back away from the deal and cancel a meeting at the Azerbaijani embassy. Had the firm complied, they would have risked breaking U.S. law and up to five years in prison.
Friend or foe, no country is above the law. The Guardian reported in August that the Israeli government was also seeking to avoid FARA compliance. A legal strategy memo from the Israeli justice ministry revealed that officials discussed ways of avoiding FARA disclosure of a $8.6 million public relations campaign to counter critics in the U.S. The memo noted that registration “would damage the reputation of several American groups that receive funding and direction from Israel, and force them to meet onerous transparency requirements.”
Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry is currently represented by the Friedlander Group, which received $833,330 in just six months, according to the latest available disclosure. However, according to the lobbyists approached by Azerbaijan, the country is “not happy” with the Friedlander Group’s “progress on issues important to Azerbaijan.” Ezra Friedlander, CEO of the Friedlander Group, told POLITICO that “In all my interactions the government of Azerbaijan has adhered to the highest ethical standards regarding FARA and all other issues pertaining to my representation.”
Last August, Azerbaijan hired Rodney Dixon, an international legal expert, to publish a report defending Azerbaijan against allegations of genocide in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Dixon promoted the report in U.S. media outlets and, led by Friedlander, met with six U.S. representatives and dozens of Congressional staffers—all without registering as a foreign agent.
While some firms are rejecting working with Azerbaijan, citing pressure to skirt federal regulations, others are lining up to cash checks from the oil-rich Caucasus country. In June, two more firms registered to represent Azerbaijani interests.
The Azerbaijani Embassy hired Skyline Capitol, led by former Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Utah), at a rate of $50,000 a month to target members of the Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, coordinate Congressional delegations to Azerbaijan, and reinvigorate the Congressional Azerbaijan Caucus (an updated list of Congressional Membership Organizations does not list Cuellar as a Co-Chair).
Azerbaijan’s other recent addition is Teneo Strategy, a public relations firm that is targeting global media outlets ahead of COP 29, a major environmental summit that will take place in Baku next month. The firm has contacted some 144 journalists as part of a $4.7 million contract. Teneo began its work in February but did not formally disclose its work under FARA until June, flouting a 10-day registration requirement.
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