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Zelensky firings raise concern about corruption, Russian moles

Expert says Ukraine is less united, more factionalized and penetrated by Russian intelligence than we would like to think.

Analysis | Europe

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky fired two top law enforcement officials Sunday, saying that the pair failed to root out cases of suspected treason in their agencies. In announcing the move, Zelensky also revealed that his government is investigating more than 650 potential cases of treason by security officials.

Experts say these high-profile firings reveal that Ukraine’s government is more penetrated by Russian intelligence than previously assumed.

“Russian intelligence has been rather successful in penetrating the Ukrainian government, particularly in Ukraine’s eastern and southern regions,” said George Beebe of the Quincy Institute. 

According to Beebe, this level of penetration is not surprising given that Russian officers have been working to build support in Ukraine since the fall of the Soviet Union. “They know the people, they think they’re operating on home turf, so to speak,” he said. “And there are certainly Ukrainians, particularly in the east and south, who feel unfairly discriminated against by Ukraine’s central government.”

The two former officials — Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova and security chief Ivan Bakanov — were close with Zelensky but had little to no experience in government. Beebe, who previously headed the CIA’s Russia team, argues that the pair’s lack of bureaucratic know-how doomed them from the start.

“Imagine President Biden appointed a friend from Delaware as head of the CIA who had no experience in intelligence,” he said. “It’s not very surprising that these people haven’t performed well.”

The shakeup has also created questions about Washington’s cooperation with Ukrainian officials, which includes sharing potentially sensitive information related to the war. State Department spokesperson Ned Price played down concerns about corruption and potential information leaks when asked if the U.S. would pause exchanges with the prosecutor general’s office.

“We’ve invested in the institution,” Price said Monday in a press briefing. “There had been a relationship between the prosecutor general and [U.S. officials], but I am confident that that personal relationship can be built [with the incoming prosecutor].”

Beebe showed less confidence in the new appointments, pointing out that both are seen as close allies of Zelensky’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak.

“There’s good reason to doubt that these new appointees will professionalize these institutions rather than using them to protect and advance their personal and political allies,” he said.

President Volodymyr Zelensky on February 2, 2022. (President of Ukraine/Creative Commons)
Analysis | Europe
2023-03-10t000000z_1731362646_mt1nurpho000xjbp8a_rtrmadp_3_conflicts-war-peace-ukraine-scaled
Ukrainian soldiers hold portraits of soldiers father Oleg Khomiuk, 52, and his son Mykyta Khomiuk, 25, during their farewell ceremony on the Independence Square in Kyiv, Ukraine 10 March 2023. The father and son died in the battles for Bakhmut in Donetsk region. (Photo by STR/NurPhoto)

Expert: Ukraine loses 25% of its population

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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is over two years old, and Kyiv is facing a population crisis. According to Florence Bauer, the U.N. Population Fund’s head in Eastern Europe, Ukraine’s population has declined by around 10 million people, or about 25 percent, since the start of the conflict in 2014, with 8 million of those occurring after Russia began its full-scale invasion in 2022. This report comes a week after Ukrainian presidential adviser Serhiy Leshchenko revealed that American politicians were pushing Zelenskyy to mobilize men as young as 18.

Population challenges” were already evident before the conflict started, as it matched trends existing in Eastern Europe, but the war has exacerbated the problem. The 6.7 million refugees represent the largest share of this population shift. Bauer also cited a decline in fertility. “The birth rate plummeted to one child per woman – the lowest fertility rate in Europe and one of the lowest in the world,” she told reporters on Tuesday.

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