Parsi: New Iran sanctions may spell death of the JCPOA

The telephone lines out of Cairo have been humming. In a series of carefully choreographed calls, Badr Abdelatty, Egypt’s foreign minister, has been shuttling between his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, America’s Middle East Envoy, Steve Witkoff, and the head of the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, all in a bid to pull Iran, America, and Israel back from the brink.

Just months ago, Cairo’s influence was at a low-point, overshadowed by the oil-fuelled wealth of the Gulf states. While President Donald Trump was brokering mega-deals in the gilded boardrooms of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, America's ties with its old ally Egypt had become decidedly awkward. The relationship grew so strained that President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi pointedly declined an invitation to the White House. The sticking point was Trump's audacious plan to permanently resettle Gaza’s more than 2 million Palestinians, turning the war-ravaged strip into a "Riviera of the Middle East."

But on the back of a torturous, yet ultimately successful, mediation that produced a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, Egypt has arguably re-emerged as the region’s essential interlocutor. Having co-hosted the Sharm el-Sheikh peace summit with Trump and being tapped to lead a planned global stabilization force in Gaza, Sisi is enjoying a diplomatic comeback. Even Israel's opposition leader, Yair Lapid, now sees Cairo as the linchpin, stating, “What Gaza needs is Egyptian control.”

Now, Cairo is attempting a far more audacious feat: bridging the chasm between Washington, its Israeli ally, and Tehran. The task is gargantuan. The 12-day war in June, which saw American and Israeli bombers strike Iranian nuclear and military sites, left diplomacy in tatters. This has not stopped Trump, fresh from his Gaza triumph, from casting his eye towards a bigger prize. In a speech to the Israeli Knesset, he mused, "you know what would be great? if we made a peace deal with them [Iran]... Wouldn’t it be nice?"

This deal-making optimism is radiating from the White House. "Doing a peace deal is becoming infectious," enthused Witkoff, in a recent interview. He hinted at a broader diplomatic offensive, adding, "we're getting calls from the Iranians. We're there to, you know, hopefully have a long-term diplomatic solution with Iran."