Follow us on social

51967340096_03bf473f30_o

Why is the US determined to build a security alliance against Iran?

The pieces are aligning ahead of Biden's trip to the Middle East next week — almost too neatly. But will it create or shatter stability?

Middle East

Next week President Biden is headed to Saudi Arabia  — which he once promised to treat like a “pariah” — reportedly intent on discussing broad security guarantees with the Kingdom, including an air defense umbrella. Unfortunately, the administration’s proposal will deepen U.S. entanglement in the Middle East and further strain Iran nuclear negotiations. 

While these security measures and the Abraham Accords — a joint agreement normalizing Arab-Israeli relations — are advertised as stabilizing the region, the reality is that the effects will be the exact opposite if Iran, which is now alarmingly days away from having accumulated enough fissile material to produce an nuclear bomb, continues to be excluded from discussions about Middle East security. If Biden's goal is stability, then his administration must bring all the major regional stakeholders to the table. In addition, Washington should actively encourage ongoing diplomatic talks between Riyadh and Tehran that received a boost just this week. 

If Biden maintains his current approach, it will only serve to further isolate Iran and destabilize the entire region for several reasons. 

First, in the face of a united U.S.-Arab-Israeli front, Iran will most likely seek to increase its leverage by expanding its nuclear program, investing more in proxy networks, and taking other destabilizing steps to assert its regional influence. 

Such a strategy is not new. We’ve seen how isolating Iran can backfire. In an attempt to bring Iran to its knees, the Trump administration abandoned the Iran nuclear deal (formally known as the JCPOA, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), imposed “maximum pressure” economic sanctions, assassinated Iranian Quds Force Commander Soleimani, and designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. The aftermath of these decisions led to a 400 percent increase in the number of attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq by Iranian proxies. 

Second, the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA also backfired as Iran can now “produce enough nuclear material for a bomb in less than 10 days — a window so short that Tehran’s actions may not be detected by international inspectors,” according to Kelsey Davenport, Director for Nonproliferation Policy at the Arms Control Association. This should be unacceptable to the international community, and the only real solution is to fully restore the deal and increase this so-called “breakout time” to nearly one year, as it was before Trump pulled out of the JCPOA. 

Not only could covert confrontations between Iran and Israel expand to all-out war, but a definitive end to the JCPOA could trigger a nuclear arms race that may include U.S. regional partners like Saudi Arabia, whose Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman has vowed that “if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we would follow suit as soon as possible.” 

Third, the launch of a new U.S.-Arab-Israeli defense axis will likely derail Saudi-Iran negotiations. Saudi Arabia and Iran broke diplomatic ties in 2016 following Saudi Arabia’s execution of prominent Shia Muslim cleric Nimr al-Nimr and the subsequent attack by Iranian protesters on the Kingdom’s embassy in Tehran. The two rivals have recently engaged in five rounds of direct diplomatic talks hosted by Iraq to resolve regional disputes. Rather than promoting detente between Riyadh and Tehran, whose rivalry drives so much of the tension in the Middle East, a U.S.-Israeli air defense umbrella over their de facto Arab allies will escalate regional tensions and diminish prospects for stability. If Washington intends to create stability, it should step back and allow Saudi Arabia and Iran to heal old wounds.

But Congress is not helping.

The recently introduced bipartisan Deterring Enemy Forces and Enabling National Defenses Act expands on the Middle East air defense proposal. This bill requires the Pentagon to integrate air and defense missile capability for joint security cooperation between the United States and Saudi Arabia, and neighboring Arab states. The bill also reinforces the dated and flawed security architecture for the Middle East — one that aims to pit Arab countries against Iran, perpetuating the cycle of regional conflict. The bill would require American taxpayers to spend even more on Saudi Arabia’s national defense at a time when the Saudis have done next to nothing to substantially increase oil production and thus lower the prices American taxpayers are paying at the pump. 

Congress aside, the Biden administration seeking stability in the Middle East is admirable. However, pursuing dated policies that more closely ally the United States with a handful of authoritarian actors is shortsighted and will aggravate tensions with Iran.

Instead, the White House should be looking to avoid an unnecessary quagmire by pursuing diplomacy with Tehran and encouraging bilateral negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Only then will a process of regional stabilization take root. 


Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken participates in the Negev Summit with Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, Bahraini Foreign Minister Dr. Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry, Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita, and UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan on March 28, 2022 in Sde Boker, Israel. [State Department Photo by Freddie Everett / Public Domain]
Middle East
President Trump with reporters
Top photo credit: President Donald Trump speaks with members of the media at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland on Sunday, September 7, 2025. (Official White House Photo by Daniel Torok)

Is Israel forcing Trump to be the capitulator in chief?

Middle East

President Donald Trump told reporters outside a Washington restaurant Tuesday evening that he is deeply displeased with Israel’s bombardment of Qatar, a close U.S. partner in the Persian Gulf that, at Washington’s request, has hosted Hamas’s political leadership since 2012.

“I am not thrilled about it. I am not thrilled about the whole situation,” Trump said, denying that Israel had given him advance notice. “I was very unhappy about it, very unhappy about every aspect of it,” he continued. “We’ve got to get the hostages back. But I was very unhappy with the way that went down.”

keep readingShow less
Europe Ukraine
Top image credit: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Volodymyr Zelenskyi, President of Ukraine, Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the UK, and Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland, emerge from St. Mary's Palace for a press conference as part of the Coalition of the Willing meeting in Kiev, May 10 2025, Kay Nietfeld/dpa via Reuters Connect

Is Europe deliberately sabotaging Ukraine War negotiations?

Europe

After last week’s meeting of the “coalition of the willing” in Paris, 26 countries have supposedly agreed to contribute — in some fashion — to a military force that would be deployed on Ukrainian soil after hostilities have concluded.

Three weeks prior, at the Anchorage leaders’ summit press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that Ukraine’s security should be ensured as part of any negotiated settlement. But Russian officials have continued to reiterate that this cannot take the form of Western combat forces stationed in Ukraine. In the wake of last week’s meeting, Putin has upped the ante by declaring that any such troops would be legitimate targets for the Russian military.

keep readingShow less
After bombing, time to demystify the 'Qatar lobby'
Top photo credit: The Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, is standing third from the left in the front row, alongside the Minister of Culture of Qatar, Abdulrahman bin Hamad bin Jassim bin Hamad Al Thani, who is at the center, and the Minister of Culture, Sports and Youth of Oman, Sayyid Theyazin bin Haitham Al Said, who is second from the right in Doha, Qatar, on May 9, 2024. (Photo by Noushad Thekkayil/NurPhoto)

After bombing, time to demystify the 'Qatar lobby'

Middle East

On Tuesday, Israel bombed Doha, killing at least five Hamas staffers and a member of Qatari security. Israeli officials initially claimed the US green-lit the operation, despite Qatar hosting the largest U.S. military in the region.

The White House has since contradicted that version of events, saying the White House was given notice “just before” the bombing and claiming the strike was an “unfortunate" attack that "could serve as an opportunity for peace.”

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.