Follow us on social

2018-07-10t101931z_1266563623_rc192c228390_rtrmadp_3_china-arabstates

Do China's ties to the Mideast run deep?

Recent visits to Beijing by regional foreign ministers show that the interest is mutual — and it's not all about energy.

Analysis | Middle East

A burst of diplomatic activity between China and Middle East countries has kicked off 2022. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi last week hosted a delegation from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain, as well as the GCC’s secretary general. They were immediately followed by the Turkish and Iranian foreign ministers. Beijing also made small waves with the announcement that Syria had signed a cooperation agreement to work with China on the Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI.

It was indeed a major week in China-Middle East, North Africa relations, but not without recent precedent. In 2021, Wang made two substantive trips to the region, visiting Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, the UAE, Oman, and Bahrain in March, and then Syria, Egypt, and Algeria in July. Add to this State Councilor Yang Jiechi’s trip to Qatar and Kuwait in early 2021, and it is clear Beijing is devoting significant diplomatic resources in the region.

It is easy — but wrong — to attribute this solely to energy. China does rely heavily on the Gulf for its energy security, typically importing over 40 percent of its crude from MENA. However, the past year has demonstrated the increasingly multifaceted nature of China’s presence in the region, including a nascent but growing role in security affairs.

For example, during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit last August, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced that Iran would begin the process of becoming a full member, a goal for Tehran since at least 2008. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Qatar were all admitted as dialogue partners. The SCO has institutionalized security cooperation among its members through the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which broadens cooperation on security, crime, and drug trafficking.

Other dramatic reports have recently indicated a Chinese military role on the Arabian Peninsula. In November 2021, The Wall Street Journal reported that Beijing was building a military facility in the UAE, a report that the Emirati government described as a mischaracterization of the project. “The UAE’s view was that these certain facilities in no way could be construed as military facilities,” UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash insisted last month at a meeting of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. Shortly after, CNN reported that Saudi Arabia is actively manufacturing its own ballistic missiles with Chinese assistance.   

Taken on its own, the China-MENA relationships are a fascinating expression of a growing geopolitical shift, as Asian and MENA countries, people, and markets continue to integrate more deeply. Asian countries constitute the largest markets for Gulf oil, making a natural economic synergy, and China’s appetite for Gulf energy is tremendous. Chinese companies have been major players in contracting across the region over the past two decades. Add to this the BRI, linking markets and supply chains across the Indian Ocean and Eurasia, and it becomes clearer that MENA stability is an important component of BRI’s success, and therefore of Beijing’s foreign policy.

However, the China-U.S.-MENA triangle adds a complicating layer to the story. Like other extra-regional countries operating in MENA, Beijing has benefited from a Washington’s security umbrella that allowed it to develop a deep presence without undertaking corresponding security commitments. This was not a problem when the U.S.-China relationship was in good shape, but, as the bilateral relationship has deteriorated in recent years, tensions between them have started to play out in countries and regions where both powers have deep interests.

The Middle East is clearly one such region. The strategic competition framework adopted by Washington is having an impact on the foreign policy of its allies and partners throughout MENA. “What we are worried about is this fine line between acute competition between China and the U.S. and a new Cold War,” Gargash observed.    

The visits to China from MENA foreign ministers must be seen in this larger context. Leaders across the region are concerned about becoming a theater of great power competition. At the same time, they worry about the ever-present prospect of U.S. disengagement as the latter’s attention shifts to the Indo-Pacific. Managing the relationship with Washington while strengthening ties to Beijing has become a tough balancing act, but an increasingly important one; everyone is hedging.    

The meetings themselves yielded little in the way of substantive pledges or new initiatives. There was talk of continuing to work toward a completed China-GCC free trade agreement; this has been on the table since 2004. Wang and Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said the two countries had started the implementation stage of the comprehensive strategic partnership signed in March 2020 but under development since 2016.

Wang also re-emphasized China’s 5-point initiative for MENA security announced during his 2021 trip to Saudi Arabia. Calling on MENA states to respect each other, uphold equity and justice, achieve nuclear non-proliferation, jointly foster collective security, and accelerate development cooperation, the initiative is vague and fails to articulate a framework for implementation. The press release describing Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu’s visit claimed that he had expressed Turkey’s expectations and sensitivities about the treatment of Uyghurs, always an important talking point for Ankara. And while he did not travel with the delegation to Beijing, UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed spoke with Wang over the telephone to discuss areas of cooperation and support.

None of this fundamentally changed anything. It just reaffirms what we have been watching unfold: China has become an important political actor in the Middle East. It has been articulating an increasingly ambitious regional presence, and MENA leaders are receptive. In a press release after his guests had all returned home, Wang asserted that there is “no power vacuum” in the Middle East and thus no need for “a foreign patriarch” to interfere in the region. He is telling MENA that China has a different way of engaging the region, that there is an alternative to the United States. Whether or not this turns out to be the case, the message resonates.

Thanks to our readers and supporters, Responsible Statecraft has had a tremendous year. A complete website overhaul made possible in part by generous contributions to RS, along with amazing writing by staff and outside contributors, has helped to increase our monthly page views by 133%! In continuing to provide independent and sharp analysis on the major conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as the tumult of Washington politics, RS has become a go-to for readers looking for alternatives and change in the foreign policy conversation. 

 

We hope you will consider a tax-exempt donation to RS for your end-of-the-year giving, as we plan for new ways to expand our coverage and reach in 2025. Please enjoy your holidays, and here is to a dynamic year ahead!

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Adel bin Ahmed Al-Jubeir arrive for a news conference at a China Arab forum in Beijing, China, July 10, 2018. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
Analysis | Middle East
Russia Putin
Russia's President Vladimir Putin speaks during a session of the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi, Russia October 19, 2017. REUTERS/Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool

Peace denied? Russian budget jacks up wartime economy

Europe

On December 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the budget law for 2025-2027. The Duma had earlier approved the law on November 21, and the Federation Council rubber stamped it on November 27.

The main takeaway from the budget is that Russia is planning for the long haul in its war with NATO-backed Ukraine and makes clear that Russia intends to double down on defense spending no matter what the cost. While the increased budget does not shed light on expectations for a speedy resolution to the war, it is indicative that Moscow continues to prepare for conflict with both Ukraine and NATO.

keep readingShow less
Committee Hearing: The Imperative to Strengthen America's Defense Industrial Base and Workforce
Top Image Credit: Senate Committee Hearing: The Imperative to Strengthen America's Defense Industrial Base and Workforce (YouTube/Screenshot)

Industry: War with China may be imminent, but we're not ready

Military Industrial Complex

Military industry mainstays and lawmakers alike are warning of imminent conflict with China in an effort to push support for controversial deep tech, especially controversial autonomous and AI-backed systems.

The conversation, which presupposed a war with Beijing sometime in the near future, took place Wednesday on Capitol Hill at a hearing of the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) entitled, “The Imperative to Strengthen America's Defense Industrial Base and Workforce.”

keep readingShow less
Diplomacy Watch: Still tap dancing around NATO for Kyiv

Diplomacy Watch: Still tap dancing around NATO for Kyiv

QiOSK

Kyiv and Moscow both hinted this week at their shifting expectations and preparations for a potentially approaching conclusion to the Ukraine War, amid a frantic push from the Biden administration to “put Ukraine in the strongest possible position” ahead of President-elect Trump’s inauguration in January.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan reiterated this goal as part of a Dec. 2 White House announcement of $725 million in additional security assistance for Ukraine, which will include substantial artillery, rockets, drones, and land mines and will be delivered “rapidly” to Ukraine’s front lines. The Kremlin said on Tuesday that the new package shows that the Biden administration aims to “throw oil on the fire” of the war before exiting office.

keep readingShow less

Election 2024

Latest

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.