Follow us on social

U.s._area_reconnaissance_patrol_syria_2021-scaled

Sucked into other people's wars in Syria

Reports indicate the attack on a US base last month was retaliation for recent Israel strikes. It didn't kill anyone, but it's only a matter of time.

Analysis | Middle East

Eric Schmitt and Ronen Bergman report in the New York Times that U.S. officials believe an attack with armed drones on an American military base in southern Syria last month was retaliation for Israeli airstrikes in Syria. The attack caused no casualties — and the munitions in three of the five drones in the attack failed even to detonate — but the next such attack could well cause deaths or injuries. The officials attribute the October attack to what they describe as “proxy” forces connected to Iran.

Four implications follow from this development.

First, a complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria is overdue. The continued presence of those troops is illegal, serves no vital purpose that has been identified and authorized by Congress, and helps to prolong a war in Syria that already has been largely won by the Assad regime with the help of its Russian and Iranian allies. Meanwhile, U.S. troops in Syria are exposed to becoming casualties at any moment.

Second, the United States needs to accept that the Assad regime is not going away any time soon and should think about areas where its interests with that regime may overlap. This is especially true regarding terrorism and specifically Islamic State or ISIS, which figures into the most frequently mentioned rationale for keeping those American troops in Syria.

Although earlier in the Syrian war the regime appreciated having ISIS around so that it could present itself as Syria’s guardian against terrorism, the more that Assad consolidates his control over most of the country, the clearer and more direct will be the conflict between his regime and ISIS. That conflict already is clear enough to have led to direct combat. The situation is increasingly similar to that in Afghanistan, where the branch of ISIS there presents the biggest challenge to Taliban rule and is why the Taliban and ISIS are mortal enemies.

Meanwhile, the uninvited presence of U.S. troops on foreign soil stimulates anti-U.S. terrorism, just as the presence of foreign troops on other soil has historically been perhaps the single biggest stimulant to terrorism by other groups.

Third, the United States has been applying double standards to conduct in the Middle East. As the Iranian regime never tires to point out, its people are in Syria by invitation of the Syrian government, but U.S. forces are not. Although references to Iran’s “nefarious, destabilizing, etc.” behavior in the region are de rigueur in U.S. policy discussions, the biggest throwing of military weight around in the Middle East today — and doing so in a way that makes an unstable situation even more unstable — is the offensive Israeli aerial campaign in Syria for which last month’s drone attack on the U.S. base was retaliation. Israel has been conducting its air campaign at an intensity of about two attacks per week, supplemented by other lethal use of force such as assassination of a Syrian official with sniper fire from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Fourth, as long as the United States condones and facilitates Israel’s behavior, it cannot escape the damaging consequences. Just as those who fired the drones at the base in Syria have been conditioned to consider Israel and the United States as a package deal, so too have others whom Israel’s policies and actions have angered directed much of that anger at the United States. This pattern has long been true of Middle Eastern terrorists. Osama bin Laden consistently made U.S. support for Israeli policy a major feature of his bill of particulars against the United States.

Bin Laden knew he had an audience. The emotions in that audience are kept aroused not only by aggressive actions in places such as Syria but also by the continued subjugation of the Palestinians, whose plight many Middle Easterners still care about a lot.


U.S. Soldiers, with Alpha Company, 1st Battalion, 6th Infantry Regiment, 2nd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Armored Division, conduct area reconnaissance in the Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility, Feb. 18, 2021. The soldiers are in Syria to support the Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) mission. CJTF remains committed to working by, with, and through our partners to ensure the enduring defeat of Daesh. (U.S. Army photo by Spc. Jensen Guillory)
Analysis | Middle East
Friedrich Merz
Top photo credit: German Prime Minister-in-waiting Friedrich Merz (Shutterstock.Penofoto)

German leaders miscalculated popular will for war spending

Europe

Recent polls show the center right Christian Democrats (CDU-CSU) headed by prospective chancellor Friedrich Merz losing ground against the populist right Alternative for Germany (AfD), even before the new government has been formed.

The obvious explanation is widespread popular dissatisfaction with last month’s vote pressed through the outgoing parliament by the CDU-CSU and presumptive coalition partner the SPD (with the Greens) to allow unlimited increases in defense spending. This entailed disabling the constitutional “debt brake” introduced in 2009 to curb deficits and public debt.

keep readingShow less
Bernie Sanders Chris Van Hollen
Top image credit: U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) speaks during a press conference regarding legislation that would block offensive U.S. weapons sales to Israel, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., November 19, 2024. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
Will Senate vote signal a wider shift away from Israel?

Can Bernie stop billions in new US weapons going to Israel?

Middle East

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz have been roundly criticized for the security lapse that put journalist Jeffrey Goldberg into a Signal chat where administration officials discussed bombing Houthi forces in Yemen, to the point where some, like Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) have called for their resignations.

But the focus on the process ignores the content of the conversation, and the far greater crime of continuing to provide weapons that are inflaming conflicts in the Middle East and enabling Israel’s war on Gaza, which has resulted in the deaths of over 50,000 Palestinians, most of them civilians.

keep readingShow less
Is US bombing Somalia just because it can?
Top Image Credit: The aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), foreground, leads a formation of Carrier Strike Group Five ships as Air Force B-52 Stratofortress aircraft and Navy F/A-18 Hornet aircraft pass overhead for a photo exercise during Valiant Shield 2018 in the Philippine Sea Sept. 17, 2018. The biennial, U.S. only, field-training exercise focuses on integration of joint training among the U.S. Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps. This is the seventh exercise in the Valiant Shield series that began in 2006. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Erwin Miciano)

Is US bombing Somalia just because it can?

QiOSK

U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) conducted an airstrike in Somalia against ISIS targets on Saturday, killing “multiple ISIS-Somalia operatives.” It was the eighth such strike in the short time that Trump has been in office, reflecting a quiet, but deadly American campaign in a part, of the world that remains far below the public radar.

“AFRICOM, alongside the Federal Government of Somalia and Somali Armed Forces, continues to take action to degrade ISIS-Somalia's ability to plan and conduct attacks that threaten the U.S. homeland, our forces, and our civilians abroad,” a Sunday AFRICOM press release stated.

keep readingShow less

Trump transition

Latest

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.