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Fun fact: US special ops are in 33 of 44 countries in Europe today

Commandos have quietly fanned out and are drilling with other militaries from one edge of the continent to the other. But to what end?

Analysis | Reporting | Military Industrial Complex
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“For SOF, we’re going to be focused on campaigning, especially in the Grey Zone — below the threshold of conflict,” said Gen. Richard D. Clarke, the chief of U.S. Special Operations Command late last month, using the acronym for Special Operations forces.  “Our SOF have partnered with European allies since before 2014, focused on resistance and building resistance networks... But that is not just in the Baltics — Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia — that’s through the rest of Europe.”

This “focus” has led America’s most elite troops to fan out across Europe, operating from one end of the continent to the other. In 2021, U.S. Special Operations forces — Navy SEALs, Army Green Berets, and others — were deployed in at least 33 European countries, including Albania, Austria, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom. 

This accounts for a significant proportion of U.S. Special Operations forces’ global activity. Roughly 11 percent of U.S. commandos deployed overseas this year were sent to Europe, the largest percentage of any region in the world except for the Greater Middle East and Africa.

In May, for example, U.S. Naval Special Warfare operators and Army Green Berets traveled to Hungary to train alongside elite Austrian, Croatian, Hungarian, Slovakian, and Slovenian troops as part of Black Swan 21, a training exercise focused on enhancing “peer-to-peer deterrence and resiliency of alliances and partnerships” in Europe. “I think this is the manifestation of everything that is great about NATO, several NATO allies coming together and even non-NATO partners coming together to share their tactics, techniques, procedures, and lessons learned so that we’re all better,” said U.S. Air Force Maj. Gen. David H. Tabor, the commanding general of U.S. Special Operations Command Europe, of Black Swan 21.

The next month, Green Berets from the 10th Special Forces Group took part in a live-fire training exercise alongside U.K. Royal Marines in a forest near Stuttgart, Germany. In June and July, Green Berets trained with Serbian Police from that country’s Special Anti-terrorist Unit. In September, Navy SEALs worked with Cypriot Army Special Forces.  And last month, Green Berets from the 19th Special Forces Group conducted a joint training exercise with elite Latvian and Estonian troops.

Clarke’s mention of the so-called Grey Zone and building “resistance networks” suggests an emphasis on the special operations missions authorized under “Section 1202 Authority,” an obscure provision which first appeared in the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act and is “used to provide support to foreign forces, irregular forces, groups, or individuals” taking part in irregular warfare. Little has ever been revealed about 1202 missions, but they are explicitly focused on near-peer competitors and Grey Zone operations, which could include, for example, support for proxy forces in Ukraine. During a 2019 House Armed Services Committee hearing, in fact, Clarke said that the U.S. capacity “to train foreign forces, irregular forces, with the 1202 authority” would be crucial to supporting conventional troops in a conflict with Russia.

This year, Tabor has repeatedly traveled to Ukraine where a conflict has simmered and flared since 2014, following the Russian annexation of Crimea. “We remain fully committed to Ukrainian sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence,” he said while attending that country’s Independence Day festivities in August. During that trip he met with leadership from Ukrainian Special Forces and, according to an official statement, discussed “continued partnership in order to increase readiness and interoperability within the region.”


A U.S. Soldier assigned to 1st Battalion, 10th Special Forces Group (Airborne) salutes his fellow Soldiers while jumping out of a C-130 Hercules aircraft over a drop zone in Germany. (U.S. Army photo by Visual Information Specialist Jason Johnston/Released)
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Analysis | Reporting | Military Industrial Complex
Dan Caine
Top photo credit: Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff U.S. Air Force Gen. Dan Caine conduct a press briefing on Operation Epic Fury at the Pentagon, Washington, D.C., March 4, 2026. (DoW photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Alexander Kubitza)

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Gen. Dan Caine’s formulation of American war aims in Iran is remarkable not because it is bellicose, but because it is strategically incoherent.

In a press conference Tuesday morning, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff did not describe a limited campaign to suppress missile fire, blunt Iran’s naval threat, or even impose a severe but bounded setback on Tehran’s coercive instruments. He described a campaign against Iran’s “military and industrial base” designed to prevent the regime from attacking Americans, U.S. interests, and regional partners “for years to come.” In an earlier briefing he put the objective similarly: to prevent Iran from projecting power outside its borders. Rather than the language of a discrete coercive operation, this describes a war against a state’s capacity to regenerate power.

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UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan receives Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the Presidential Airport in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates November 27, 2019. WAM/Handout via REUTERS

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On Sunday, U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Mike Waltz told ABC News that Arab Gulf states may soon step up their involvement in the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. “I expect that you'll see additional diplomatic and possibly military action from them in the coming days and weeks,” Waltz said.

Then, on Monday morning, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) slammed Saudi Arabia for staying out of the war even as “Americans are dying and the U.S. is spending billions” of dollars to conduct regime change in Iran. “If you are not willing to use your military now, when are you willing to use it?” Graham asked. “Hopefully this changes soon. If not, consequences will follow.”

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Top image credit: Iranian army military personnel stand at attention under a banner featuring an image of an Iranian-made unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) during a military parade commemorating the anniversary of Army Day outside the Shrine of Iran's late leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the south of Tehran, Iran, on April 18, 2025. (Photo by Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto)

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A provocative calculus by Anusar Farrouqui (“policytensor”) has been circulating on X and in more exhaustive form on the author’s Substack. It purports to demonstrate a sobering reality: in a high-intensity U.S.-Iran conflict, the United States may be unable to suppress Iranian drone production quickly enough to prevent a strategically consequential period of regional devastation.

The argument is framed through a quantitative lens, carrying the seductive appeal of mathematical precision. It arranges variables—such as U.S. sortie rates and degradation efficiency against Iranian repair cycles and rebuild speeds—to suggest a "sustainable firing rate." The implication is that Iran could maintain a persistent strike capability long enough to exhaust American political patience, forcing Washington toward a premature declaration of success or an unfavorable ceasefire.

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