Follow us on social

51590077559_71f7ebce1a_o-scaled

Will Biden draw down the US military presence in the Middle East?

A posture review is forthcoming, and pressure is building for withdrawal.

Analysis | Middle East

While top U.S. officials over the past month have appeared eager to reassure traditional Arab partners in the Persian Gulf about Washington’s continued commitment to their security after the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the debate over future policy — whether Washington should begin to disengage militarily from the region — remains unresolved. Until the Biden administration releases its Force Posture Review, America's intentions remain opaque.

In late September, President Joe Biden dispatched his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, to hold talks with key Gulf partners. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken hosted a roundtable with members of the U.S.-backed Gulf Cooperation Council, gathering in New York during the annual meeting of the U.N. General Assembly. And while Blinken assured his guests that the administration remained “committed to sustainable, long-term relationships with all of our GCC partners,” the reaction was summed up in the question reportedly posed by Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan: “What’s the plan?”

While Prince Faisal’s question pertains specifically to the future of U.S. policy toward Riyadh’s chief regional rival, Iran, particularly if negotiations over the rejuvenation of the Iran nuclear deal collapse, the absence of a clear U.S. agenda towards the Gulf is one of the big questions looming over Washington foreign-policy circles.

With speculation over the future of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, a larger debate has emerged in Washington, inciting a call for the continuation of American military supremacy in the world. “The starting point for a new internationalism should be a clear recognition that although foreign policy begins at home, it cannot end there," said Richard Haass, former American diplomat, and president of the Council of Foreign Relations. “In the absence of a new American internationalism, the likely outcome will be a world that is less free, more violent, and less willing or able to tackle common challenges.”

Speaking on the future of a U.S. military presence in the region duringa recent event on maritime security in the Gulf, Gulf expert Dr. Geoffrey Gresh said “the United States is still going to be front and center, and as we know, on the Gulf side by certain estimates there are around 50,000 U.S. troops spread, if you include Turkey, Jordan, and the like spread across the Middle East region …  so clearly the United States has a vested and long-term interest, and this is going to play out significantly down the road.” While the points from Haass and Gresh are markedly different, they represent a larger school of thought in American foreign policy that the United States must stay in the Middle East to protect its interests.

But many experts have come to oppose this viewpoint, representing a growing movement for ending America's forever wars and pursuing a more rigorous diplomatic strategy. In fact, the beginning of the U.S. drawdown in the Middle East has led many to believe that it creates better opportunities for diplomatic channels between regional leaders.

“Biden’s pending withdrawal from the region predictably unlocked an untapped potential for the Middle East actors to resolve their problems on their own and to try to build structures necessary to ensure a more peaceful and stable region,” said the Quincy Institute’s Trita Parsi in the wake of the Baghdad Summit.

Indeed, a Quincy Institute issue brief authored by the late Mark Perry pushes back at the idea that expanding the American internationalism doctrine protects U.S. interests in the region: “The claim that a smaller military footprint in the Middle East would undermine U.S. security interests actually reflects a concern that a reduced force presence would undermine the interests of combatant commanders, who wish to maintain access to resources.”

These arguments represent a growing consensus in the U.S. foreign policy debate: realistically,the U.S. presence in the region overall has been destabilizing, and by withdrawing, it opens the door for regional leaders to engage diplomatically. The school of thought also contends that there is no real threat to the United States by withdrawing, only hurt feelings among combatant commanders.

Beyond the arguments to stay or leave, many in Washington are now arguing about the tenability of a U.S. “pivot” from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific. “There is some uncertainty regarding the best strategy and tools for execution but there is one trend that is unmistakable regarding policy execution that shows a clear movement of U.S. military resources from the Middle East into the Indo-pacific,” said Bilal Y. Saab, a former Pentagon official and Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, speaking at the aforementioned maritime security event.

How this pivot manifests will depend on the anticipated Global Force Posture review released by the Biden administration in the coming months. While the review may show a change in a U.S. military force posture, the larger question of long-term commitment to the Gulf in areas such as multilateral cooperation with partners, supporting the navies of Gulf allies, and securing safe passage for trade remain unclear.

Anwar Gargash, a top diplomatic advisor to the president of the UAE,expressed his frustrations regarding the U.S. commitment to the Gulf. “We will see in the coming period really what is going on with regards to America's footprint in the region. I don't think we know yet, but Afghanistan is definitely a test and to be honest it is a very worrying test,” he said

Gargash’s remarks pose a dire question for the role Gulf states play as Washington rethinks the U.S. military presence in the region, while also digging at the insecurity felt from Gulf leaders as momentum for ending U.S. military involvement abroad continues.

Ultimately, whatever the uncertainty may be in foreign policy circles, the United Statesis at a crossroads. The time has come for the Biden administration to rethink its military presence in the region. The debate boils down to whether Washington wants to continue its military supremacy in the Middle East or engage in policy based on restraint, pursuing a more rigorous diplomatic strategy around the region and world.


Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken meets with Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, at the U.S. Department of State in Washington, D.C., on October 14, 2021. [State Department photo by Freddie Everett]
Analysis | Middle East
Somalia
Top image credit: U.S. forces host a range day with the Danab Brigade in Somalia, May 9, 2021. Special Operations Command Africa remains engaged with partner forces in Somalia in order to promote safety and stability across the Horn of Africa. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Zoe Russell)

Why the US can't beat al-Shabaab in Somalia

Africa

The New York Times reported earlier this month that recent gains by al-Shabaab Islamist militants in central and southern Somalia has prompted a debate within the State Department about closing the U.S. Embassy in Mogadishu and withdrawing most American personnel. At the forefront of some officials’ minds, according to the Times, are memories of recent foreign policy fiascos, such as the fall of the Afghan government amid a hasty American withdrawal in 2021.

There are good reasons to question why the U.S. has been unable to defeat al-Shabaab despite nearly 20 years of U.S. military involvement in the country. But the scale of the U.S. role is drastically different than that of Afghanistan, and the U.S. cannot necessarily be described as the most significant external security actor on the ground. At the same time, the Trump administration has given no indication that it will scale down drone strikes — meaning that the U.S. will continue to privilege military solutions.

keep readingShow less
Hegseth Guam
Top photo credit: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth departs Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, March 27, 2025. (DOD photo by U.S. Air Force Madelyn Keech)

Hegseth goes to 'spear point' Guam to prep for war with China

Asia-Pacific

The Guam headlines from the recent visit of the U.S. secretary of defense are only part of Secretary Hegseth’s maiden visit to the Pacific. It is Guam’s place in the larger picture - where the island fits into U.S. strategy - that helps us understand how the “tip of the spear” is being positioned. Perhaps overlooked, the arrangement of the “Guam piece” gives us a better sense not only of Guam’s importance to the United States, but also of how the U.S. sees the larger geopolitical competition taking shape.

Before he landed on Guam, the secretary of defense circulated a secret memo that prioritized U.S. readiness for a potential conflict with China over Taiwan. At the same time, it was reported that U.S. intelligence assessed that Guam would be “a major target of Chinese missile strikes” if China launched an invasion of Taiwan.

keep readingShow less
Pope Francis' legacy of inter-faith diplomacy
Top image credit: Pope Francis met with Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, one of the Muslim world's leading authorities on March 6, 2021 in Najaf, Iraq. (Vatican Media via REUTERS)

Pope Francis' legacy of inter-faith diplomacy

Global Crises

One of the most enduring tributes to Pope Francis, who passed away this Easter, would be the appreciation for his legacy of inter-religious diplomacy, a vision rooted in his humility, compassion, and a commitment to bridging divides — between faiths, cultures, and ideologies — from a standpoint of mutual respect and tolerance.

Among his most profound contributions is his historic meeting with Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani in Najaf, Iraq, on March 6, 2021. What made this meeting a true landmark in inter-faith dialogue was the fact it brought together, for the first time, the spiritual leader of the world’s 1.2 billion Roman Catholics and one of the most revered figures in Shia Islam, with influence on tens of millions of Shia Muslims globally. In a humble, yet moving ceremony, the meeting took place in al-Sistani’s modest home in Najaf. A frail al-Sistani, who rarely receives visitors and typically remains seated, stood to greet the 84-year-old Pope and held his hand, in a gesture that underscored mutual respect.

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.