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The real Gen. Milley story is the president's sole authority to launch nukes

News that the Joint Chiefs chair sought to block Trump from starting a war has highlighted absurdities in our nuclear weapons policies.

Analysis | Global Crises

When news broke that, after the January 6th insurrection attempt, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley asked senior military officers to consult him before following a potential direct order from President Trump to launch a nuclear attack, much of the attention focused on whether Milley was right to intervene in the chain of command. 

However, the real issue doesn’t lie within Milley’s actions, but instead within a system that gives a president, no matter their perceived mental state, absolute control over the U.S. nuclear arsenal.

Sadly, this isn’t the first time a senior defense official has stepped outside his role to prevent what he has seen as an unstable president from starting a war. Nor was Donald Trump the first U.S. president whose mental capacity was questioned. Indeed, as one observer noted, three of the past nine presidents “have exhibited behavior so worrying that their own staff took quasi-legal (or perhaps not at all legal) steps to stop them from starting wars.”

Richard Nixon during the Watergate scandal was known for falling into drunken rages that had his closest staff questioning his sanity. So much so that Secretary of Defense James Schlesinger and national security adviser Henry Kissinger asked that certain presidential orders, particularly those related to nuclear weapons, be cleared by themselves personally before any actions were taken. Nixon was also reported to have braggingly told visiting lawmakers during the Watergate scandal that, “I can go into my office and pick up the telephone and in 25 minutes 70 million people will be dead.”

As it stands, the president has sole authority over the nuclear launch process meaning that they can order a nuclear strike without the approval of Congress, the defense secretary, a military officer, or anyone else. It’s a terrifying reality when you take into account that one person has control over the U.S.’s massive arsenal of 5,550 nuclear weapons. Furthermore, sole authority offers a loophole to the constitutional right to declare war granted to the legislative branch. 

This means that any president has the power to hold the world hostage, or in the worst case scenario, end life as we know it. Some experts, including former Secretary of Defense Willam Perry, have criticized sole authority as being an outdated Cold War relic and urge the Biden administration to renounce the president's sole control over nuclear weapons. Beyond the potential abuse of a rogue president, the risk of mistakes being made by a normal one are too great. And when it comes to weapons of this caliber, one mistake cannot be made.

There have been many close calls with nuclear weapons. Some incidents have ranged from false alarms to the absolutely ridiculous, like in October 25, 1962 when a bear set off a nuclear alarm. The Future of Life Institute found that the “most devastating military threat arguably comes from a nuclear war started not intentionally but by accident or miscalculation.”

With thousands of nuclear weapons ready to launch at a hair trigger notice, accidental nuclear wars have almost happened too many times for comfort. Furthermore, the U.S. president currently has mere minutes to respond to a nuclear threat and deduce the threat’s legitimacy. This limited time frame and process is a recipe for mistakes. 

Some reports have labeled Milley a hero while others are demanding a formal investigation into his actions. Whatever his motivations, the incident does highlight the persistent perils of sole authority. It also raises the need to adopt a No First Use policy, which means that the United States, as official policy, would never launch a nuclear weapon against another nation as a first strike. Such a policy would give a more permanent assurance to potential adversaries and reduce the risk of a nuclear war by mistake or miscalculation. A No First Use policy  would also jumpstart future reforms and negotiations making the United States a global leader in nonproliferation once again. 

With the 2021 Nuclear Posture Review looming, we have an opportunity to redefine the U.S. role both domestically and abroad. This is an opportunity to call on the Biden administration — reminding  of the president’s campaign promise that he “would take other steps to demonstrate our commitment to reducing the role of nuclear weapons” — and demand that it adopt policies that reduce these unnecessary risks.


President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Michael Pence observe the 58th Presidential Inauguration Parade at the White House reviewing stand in Washington D.C., Jan. 20, 2017. More than 5,000 military members from across all branches of the armed forces of the United States, including Reserve and National Guard components, provided ceremonial support and Defense Support of Civil Authorities during the inaugural period. (DoD Photo by Navy Petty Officer 2nd Class Dominique A. Pineiro/Released)
Analysis | Global Crises
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The Bunker appears originally at the Project on Government Oversight and is republished here with permission.


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Donald Trump’s recent outburst against Vladimir Putin — accusing the Russian leader of "throwing a pile of bullsh*t at us" and threatening devastating new sanctions — might be just another Trumpian tantrum.

The president is known for abrupt reversals. Or it could be a bargaining tactic ahead of potential Ukraine peace talks. But there’s a third, more troubling possibility: establishment Republican hawks and neoconservatives, who have been maneuvering to hijack Trump’s “America First” agenda since his return to office, may be exploiting his frustration with Putin to push for a prolonged confrontation with Russia.

Trump’s irritation is understandable. Ukraine has accepted his proposed ceasefire, but Putin has refused, making him, in Trump’s eyes, the main obstacle to ending the war.

Putin’s calculus is clear. As Ted Snider notes in the American Conservative, Russia is winning on the battlefield. In June, it captured more Ukrainian territory and now threatens critical Kyiv’s supply lines. Moscow also seized a key lithium deposit critical to securing Trump’s support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone strikes have intensified.

Putin seems convinced his key demands — Ukraine’s neutrality, territorial concessions in the Donbas and Crimea, and a downsized Ukrainian military — are more achievable through war than diplomacy.

Yet his strategy empowers the transatlantic “forever war” faction: leaders in Britain, France, Germany, and the EU, along with hawks in both main U.S. parties. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claims that diplomacy with Russia is “exhausted.” Europe’s war party, convinced a Russian victory would inevitably lead to an attack on NATO (a suicidal prospect for Moscow), is willing to fight “to the last Ukrainian.” Meanwhile, U.S. hawks, including liberal interventionist Democrats, stoke Trump’s ego, framing failure to stand up to Putin’s defiance as a sign of weakness or appeasement.

Trump long resisted this pressure. Pragmatism told him Ukraine couldn’t win, and calling it “Biden’s war” was his way of distancing himself, seeking a quick exit to refocus on China, which he has depicted as Washington’s greater foreign threat. At least as important, U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine has been unpopular with his MAGA base.

But his June strikes on Iran may signal a hawkish shift. By touting them as a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program (despite Tehran’s refusal so far to abandon uranium enrichment), Trump may be embracing a new approach to dealing with recalcitrant foreign powers: offer a deal, set a deadline, then unleash overwhelming force if rejected. The optics of “success” could tempt him to try something similar with Russia.

This pivot coincides with a media campaign against restraint advocates within the administration like Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon policy chief who has prioritized China over Ukraine and also provoked the opposition of pro-Israel neoconservatives by warning against war with Iran. POLITICO quoted unnamed officials attacking Colby for wanting the U.S. to “do less in the world.” Meanwhile, the conventional Republican hawk Marco Rubio’s influence grows as he combines the jobs of both secretary of state and national security adviser.

What Can Trump Actually Do to Russia?
 

Nuclear deterrence rules out direct military action — even Biden, far more invested in Ukraine than Trump, avoided that risk. Instead, Trump ally Sen.Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), another establishment Republican hawk, is pushing a 500% tariff on nations buying Russian hydrocarbons, aiming to sever Moscow from the global economy. Trump seems supportive, although the move’s feasibility and impact are doubtful.

China and India are key buyers of Russian oil. China alone imports 12.5 million barrels daily. Russia exports seven million barrels daily. China could absorb Russia’s entire output. Beijing has bluntly stated it “cannot afford” a Russian defeat, ensuring Moscow’s economic lifeline remains open.

The U.S., meanwhile, is ill-prepared for a tariff war with China. When Trump imposed 145% tariffs, Beijing retaliated by cutting off rare earth metals exports, vital to U.S. industry and defense. Trump backed down.

At the G-7 summit in Canada last month, the EU proposed lowering price caps on Russian oil from $60 a barrel to $45 a barrel as part of its 18th sanctions package against Russia. Trump rejected the proposal at the time but may be tempted to reconsider, given his suggestion that more sanctions may be needed. Even if Washington backs the measure now, however, it is unlikely to cripple Russia’s war machine.

Another strategy may involve isolating Russia by peeling away Moscow’s traditionally friendly neighbors. Here, Western mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan isn’t about peace — if it were, pressure would target Baku, which has stalled agreements and threatened renewed war against Armenia. The real goal is to eject Russia from the South Caucasus and create a NATO-aligned energy corridor linking Turkey to Central Asia, bypassing both Russia and Iran to their detriment.

Central Asia itself is itself emerging as a new battleground. In May 2025, the EU has celebrated its first summit with Central Asian nations in Uzbekistan, with a heavy focus on developing the Middle Corridor, a route for transportation of energy and critical raw materials that would bypass Russia. In that context, the EU has committed €10 billion in support of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

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On June 30, President Trump signed an executive order terminating the majority of U.S. sanctions on Syria. The move, which would have been unthinkable mere months ago, fulfilled a promise he made at an investment forum in Riyadh in May.“The sanctions were brutal and crippling,” he had declared to an audience of primarily Saudi businessmen. Lifting them, he said, will “give Syria a chance at greatness.”

The significance of this statement lies not solely in the relief that it will bring to the Syrian people. His remarks revealed an implicit but rarely admitted truth: sanctions — often presented as a peaceful alternative to war — have been harming the Syrian people all along.

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