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Diplomacy builds the bridges — so let's put our money where our mouth is

If Biden wants to confront the competition, he must address the huge gap between the military and state department budgets.

Analysis | Washington Politics

It's clear that some members of Congress are concerned that, with all this talk about ramping up U.S. diplomacy, resources could be shifted away from the Department of Defense to reinvest into civilian agencies like USAID and the Department of State. 

In that vein, Senator Jim Inhofe (R-Okla.), ranking member of the Armed Services Committee, published an op-ed for Defense News last month boldly titled, “President Biden shouldn’t replace military strength with diplomacy.” In the article, he argues the United States faces many challenges, but namely that Russia and China pose a unique threat to “our way of life.” Sen. Inhofe stated, “four straight years of increased funding for the military was just a start.” 

China and Russia do pose a challenge to U.S. influence around the world. But to counter this requires skillful diplomacy and honest development — not more military hardware. Washington must also accept that simply preaching democracy and human rights around the world will no longer work. If the Biden administration is serious about re-establishing U.S. legitimacy abroad it must start closing the yawning resource gap between the State Department and Pentagon.

China’s attempt to undercut American influence is primarily through its economic ambitions, with the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and development through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI seeks to build China into a geopolitical bloc aligned with its policy ambitions of economic growth, and undermining U.S. global power and influence in the global financial system through the RCEP, which replaced the Trans-Pacific Partnership after Washington left. 

A major criticism of the BRI has been that China’s approach to foreign aid and development is extractive, and leaves the countries that they support in debt and financially hooked in its orbit. Developing authentic relationships with local people who have a unique understanding of the social and political environment is vital for the United States to re-establish itself as an honest partner for inclusive political processes and defending human rights. Working through the leadership of local civil society and experts is imperative. 

Similarly with Russia, a military-led approach in 1962 brought the world to the brink of self-destruction during the Cuban Missile Crisis. Skillful diplomacy and negotiations, on the other hand, brought the two most nuclear nations in the world to agree on limits for nuclear armament and advancement. Today treaties like New START can be the building blocks of a new trust and will require strong diplomatic capacity, rather than military aggression or posturing.

In his first public conference since the inauguration, President Biden argued, “Diplomacy has always been essential to how America writes its own destiny.” Sen. Inhofe advised President Biden that “strong military underwrites strong diplomacy.” Wherever one may stand with that claim, funding for USAID and the State Department is woefully inadequate when compared with the military budget. Last year, USAID and State were appropriated $55.1 billion. In comparison, the most recent National Defense Authorization Act appropriated over $738 billion for the Department of Defense.  

“The last requested increase for the Defense Department over its existing budget equaled the totality of the State and Foreign Operations budget,” said Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, during his confirmation hearing with the Senate.  This discrepancy is what we call an overmilitarized U.S. foreign policy. 

Simultaneously advocating for an end to endless wars and increasing the military tool kit is equivalent to putting out a fire with a bucket of kerosene. And it's the wrong approach to China and Russia. 

Genuine investments into foreign aid — focused on good governance and rule of law, conflict prevention, peace-building, mitigation and response, and reintegration and reconciliation programs — must be grounded in community-based solutions that address root causes of insecurity and include all key actors at the local level. This requires boosting funding for USAID and the Department of State.

Meanwhile, wherever and whenever military presence is necessary, it should have limited and defined objectives that are people-centered and realistic in its understanding of the U.S. interests and limits of success through military intervention. 

National security is not exclusive to the Department of Defense. It requires a coordinated effort by all foreign facing agencies, that includes diplomacy and development. So let's put our money where our mouth is.


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Analysis | Washington Politics
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Donald Trump’s recent outburst against Vladimir Putin — accusing the Russian leader of "throwing a pile of bullsh*t at us" and threatening devastating new sanctions — might be just another Trumpian tantrum.

The president is known for abrupt reversals. Or it could be a bargaining tactic ahead of potential Ukraine peace talks. But there’s a third, more troubling possibility: establishment Republican hawks and neoconservatives, who have been maneuvering to hijack Trump’s “America First” agenda since his return to office, may be exploiting his frustration with Putin to push for a prolonged confrontation with Russia.

Trump’s irritation is understandable. Ukraine has accepted his proposed ceasefire, but Putin has refused, making him, in Trump’s eyes, the main obstacle to ending the war.

Putin’s calculus is clear. As Ted Snider notes in the American Conservative, Russia is winning on the battlefield. In June, it captured more Ukrainian territory and now threatens critical Kyiv’s supply lines. Moscow also seized a key lithium deposit critical to securing Trump’s support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russian missile and drone strikes have intensified.

Putin seems convinced his key demands — Ukraine’s neutrality, territorial concessions in the Donbas and Crimea, and a downsized Ukrainian military — are more achievable through war than diplomacy.

Yet his strategy empowers the transatlantic “forever war” faction: leaders in Britain, France, Germany, and the EU, along with hawks in both main U.S. parties. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claims that diplomacy with Russia is “exhausted.” Europe’s war party, convinced a Russian victory would inevitably lead to an attack on NATO (a suicidal prospect for Moscow), is willing to fight “to the last Ukrainian.” Meanwhile, U.S. hawks, including liberal interventionist Democrats, stoke Trump’s ego, framing failure to stand up to Putin’s defiance as a sign of weakness or appeasement.

Trump long resisted this pressure. Pragmatism told him Ukraine couldn’t win, and calling it “Biden’s war” was his way of distancing himself, seeking a quick exit to refocus on China, which he has depicted as Washington’s greater foreign threat. At least as important, U.S. involvement in the war in Ukraine has been unpopular with his MAGA base.

But his June strikes on Iran may signal a hawkish shift. By touting them as a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program (despite Tehran’s refusal so far to abandon uranium enrichment), Trump may be embracing a new approach to dealing with recalcitrant foreign powers: offer a deal, set a deadline, then unleash overwhelming force if rejected. The optics of “success” could tempt him to try something similar with Russia.

This pivot coincides with a media campaign against restraint advocates within the administration like Elbridge Colby, the Pentagon policy chief who has prioritized China over Ukraine and also provoked the opposition of pro-Israel neoconservatives by warning against war with Iran. POLITICO quoted unnamed officials attacking Colby for wanting the U.S. to “do less in the world.” Meanwhile, the conventional Republican hawk Marco Rubio’s influence grows as he combines the jobs of both secretary of state and national security adviser.

What Can Trump Actually Do to Russia?
 

Nuclear deterrence rules out direct military action — even Biden, far more invested in Ukraine than Trump, avoided that risk. Instead, Trump ally Sen.Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), another establishment Republican hawk, is pushing a 500% tariff on nations buying Russian hydrocarbons, aiming to sever Moscow from the global economy. Trump seems supportive, although the move’s feasibility and impact are doubtful.

China and India are key buyers of Russian oil. China alone imports 12.5 million barrels daily. Russia exports seven million barrels daily. China could absorb Russia’s entire output. Beijing has bluntly stated it “cannot afford” a Russian defeat, ensuring Moscow’s economic lifeline remains open.

The U.S., meanwhile, is ill-prepared for a tariff war with China. When Trump imposed 145% tariffs, Beijing retaliated by cutting off rare earth metals exports, vital to U.S. industry and defense. Trump backed down.

At the G-7 summit in Canada last month, the EU proposed lowering price caps on Russian oil from $60 a barrel to $45 a barrel as part of its 18th sanctions package against Russia. Trump rejected the proposal at the time but may be tempted to reconsider, given his suggestion that more sanctions may be needed. Even if Washington backs the measure now, however, it is unlikely to cripple Russia’s war machine.

Another strategy may involve isolating Russia by peeling away Moscow’s traditionally friendly neighbors. Here, Western mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan isn’t about peace — if it were, pressure would target Baku, which has stalled agreements and threatened renewed war against Armenia. The real goal is to eject Russia from the South Caucasus and create a NATO-aligned energy corridor linking Turkey to Central Asia, bypassing both Russia and Iran to their detriment.

Central Asia itself is itself emerging as a new battleground. In May 2025, the EU has celebrated its first summit with Central Asian nations in Uzbekistan, with a heavy focus on developing the Middle Corridor, a route for transportation of energy and critical raw materials that would bypass Russia. In that context, the EU has committed €10 billion in support of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route.

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On June 30, President Trump signed an executive order terminating the majority of U.S. sanctions on Syria. The move, which would have been unthinkable mere months ago, fulfilled a promise he made at an investment forum in Riyadh in May.“The sanctions were brutal and crippling,” he had declared to an audience of primarily Saudi businessmen. Lifting them, he said, will “give Syria a chance at greatness.”

The significance of this statement lies not solely in the relief that it will bring to the Syrian people. His remarks revealed an implicit but rarely admitted truth: sanctions — often presented as a peaceful alternative to war — have been harming the Syrian people all along.

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