Follow us on social

Shutterstock_1513149140-1-scaled

Biden should keep the Afghanistan withdrawal timetable

Keeping US troops there beyond the May 1 deadline won’t do anything to help intra-Afghan peace talks.

Analysis | Asia-Pacific

As the calendar ticks closer to May 1, the decision about what to do with the remaining 2,500 U.S. troops in Afghanistan becomes more urgent for the Biden administration. President Joe Biden, the principal skeptic of the Obama administration’s 2010-2011 Afghanistan troop surge, is now at a fork in the road. Does he keep to the withdrawal schedule as stated in the February 2020 U.S.-Taliban agreement, or does he accept the counsel of the U.S. national security establishment and extend the U.S. troop presence past the spring?

The Afghan government is certainly hoping for the latter — and senior Afghan officials are pulling out all the stops to pressure the Biden administration into seeing the situation their way.

Speaking to the Aspen Institute on January 29, President Ashraf Ghani laid out his expectations for the United Sates and applauded the Biden administration for issuing strongly-worded statements against the Taliban for its continued violence. Combined with murmurs from NATO sources that foreign troops will remain on the ground past May 1 and significant skepticism in the Pentagon that the Taliban is living up to its commitments under the deal, President Biden is in many ways facing what his former boss, President Obama, faced over a decade ago: huge resistance to the United States cutting its losses in the war-torn country.

The fundamental question Biden and his national security team need to ask themselves is this: would extending the U.S. troop presence in Afghanistan help facilitate the intra-Afghan peace negotiations, make any dent in the balance of power, or most importantly do anything at all to bolster U.S. national security? The answer to all three questions is “no.”

Indeed, keeping U.S. troops past the May 1 withdrawal date is highly likely to make Afghanistan’s entire situation worse as the Taliban pulls out of the talks altogether and turns its guns back on American forces. 

For the United States, the agreement with the Taliban signed in Doha last February was less about establishing peace in Afghanistan than it was about safely extricating U.S. forces from a two decade-long war. While many analysts and lawmakers in Washington, D.C. were aghast at the terms of the agreement, the stone-cold reality is that the U.S. military is responsible for protecting the American people — not for transforming Afghanistan into a land of peace and opportunity or convincing two warring sides completely distrustful of the other’s intentions to negotiate a diplomatic end to a 20-year civil war.

Some remain convinced that tying a final U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan to the intra-Afghan peace talks is good policy. Pull U.S. forces from the country before peace is achieved, they argue, and Afghanistan may be in a perpetual state of war for another two to three decades. 

These same analysts, however, are either unwilling or unable to explain how stringing U.S. troops along for another few years will actually facilitate the intra-Afghan peace process they claim to care about. Negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban are not exactly productive even with U.S. forces on Afghan soil. It took a total of seven months of bickering and multiple delays in prisoner exchanges before the two sides even opened talks to begin with.

Discussions about what items will be on the agenda have continued since December. According to the U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, “peace talks…have so far yielded few substantive results.” Violence remains high, with targeted assassinations rattling Kabul and pitched battles in the countryside a sad part of everyday life. All of this is occurring despite the fact that U.S. troops remain in the country.

Given this reality, how would extending their stay in Afghanistan — even for six months as some have recommended — have any positive impact on the talks? How long is Washington supposed to wait? And given the Taliban’s military position on the ground relative to the Afghan national security forces, why would Taliban leadership contemplate a U.S. troop presence past May when it is so clearly against their own interests? Taking recent high-level Taliban statements into account, the answer is quite clear: they wouldn’t.

The bottom-line is obvious for anyone with the good sense to see it: Afghanistan’s civil war will not be determined by how many U.S. troops are on Afghan soil at any given time or on whether Washington withdraws fully by May 1. The outcome will ultimately be determined by the Afghans themselves, who are responsible for the state of affairs in their own country. Allowing the intra-Afghan talks to dictate how quickly U.S. troops come home is an excuse for staying enmeshed in a bloody civil war the U.S. should have pulled the plug on years ago.

The United States has been fighting in Afghanistan for such a long period of time that some have lost sight of why Washington intervened in the first place: to eradicate al-Qaida and punish the Taliban for sheltering the terrorist group. This strictly narrow counterterrorism mission strayed from its original purpose the moment U.S. policymakers committed themselves to building, nurturing, financing, and protecting an Afghan political elite that has shown itself to be just as interested in enriching itself as it is in serving the needs of its citizenry. 

Successive U.S. administrations, including Biden’s own, have expressed their desire to finally close the chapter on America’s misadventure in Afghanistan. Come May, President Biden has a prime opportunity to act on these words.


Sept 24 2019 Kabul - Afghanistan. Afghan Military Forces Patrol in the streets of Kabul (Photo: hzrth via shutterstock.com)
Analysis | Asia-Pacific
Daniel Noboa, Xi Jinping
Top photo credit: Beijing, China.- In the photos, Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) and his Ecuadorian counterpart, Daniel Noboa (left), during a meeting in the Great Hall of the People, the venue for the main protocol events of the Chinese government on June 26, 2025 (Isaac Castillo/Pool / Latin America News Agency via Reuters Connect)

Why Ecuador went straight to China for relief

Latin America

Marco Rubio is visiting Mexico and Ecuador this week, his third visit as Secretary of State to Latin America.

While his sojourn in Mexico is likely to grab the most headlines given all the attention the Trump administration has devoted to immigration and Mexican drug cartels, the one to Ecuador is primarily designed to “counter malign extra continental actors,” according to a State Department press release.The reference appears to be China, an increasingly important trading and investment partner for Ecuador.

keep readingShow less
US Capitol
Top image credit: Lucky-photographer via shutterstock.com

Why does peace cost a trillion dollars?

Washington Politics

As Congress returns from its summer recess, Washington’s attention is turning towards a possible government shutdown.

While much of the focus will be on a showdown between Senate Democrats and Donald Trump, a subplot is brewing as the House and Senate, led by Republicans but supported by far too many Democrats, fight over how big the Pentagon’s budget should be. The House voted to give Trump his requested trillion dollar budget, while the Senate is demanding $22 billion more.

keep readingShow less
Yemen Ahmed al-Rahawi
Top image credit: Funeral in Sana a for senior Houthi officials killed in Israeli strikes Honor guard hold up a portraits of Houthi government s the Prime Minister Ahmed al-Rahawi and other officials killed in Israeli airstrikes on Thursday, during a funeral ceremony at the Shaab Mosque in Sanaa, Yemen, 01 September 2025. IMAGO/ via REUTERS

Israel playing with fire in Yemen

Middle East

“The war has entered a new phase,” declared Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a senior official in Yemen’s Ansar Allah movement, after Israeli jets streaked across the Arabian Peninsula to kill the group’s prime minister and a swathe of his cabinet in Yemen’s capital, Sana’a.

The senior official from Ansar Allah, the movement commonly known as the Houthis, was not wrong. The strike, which Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz promised was “just the beginning,” signaled a fundamental shift in the cartography of a two-year war of attrition between the region’s most technologically advanced military and its most resilient guerrilla force.

The retaliation was swift, if militarily ineffective: missiles launched towards Israel disintegrated over Saudi Arabia. Internally, a paranoid crackdown ensued on perceived spies. Houthi security forces stormed the offices of the World Food Programme and UNICEF, detaining at least 11 U.N. personnel in a sweep immediately condemned by the U.N. Secretary General.

The catalyst for this confrontation was the war in Gaza, unleashed by Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel, which provided the Houthis with the ideological fuel and political opportunity to transform themselves. Seizing the mantle of Palestinian solidarity — a cause their leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, frames as a “sacrifice in the cause of God Almighty ” — they graduated from a menacing regional actor into a global disruptor, launching missiles toward Israel just weeks after Hamas’s attacks and holding one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes hostage.

The chessboard was dangerously rearranged in May, when the Trump administration, eager for an off-ramp from a costly and ineffective air campaign, brokered a surprise truce with the Houthis. Mediated by Oman, the deal was simple: the U.S. would stop bombing Houthi targets, and the Houthis would stop attacking American ships. President Trump, in his characteristic style, claimed the Houthis had “capitulated” while also praising their “bravery.”

keep readingShow less

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.