Follow us on social

google cta
President_trump_meets_with_israeli_prime_minister_benjamin_netanyahu_49452464996-scaled

Trump continues to mock int'l law with move on Israel-Morocco

The U.S. agreed to become the only country in the world to recognize Moroccan control over Western Sahara.

Analysis | Middle East
google cta
google cta

The Trump administration’s decision to recognize Moroccan control over Western Sahara in exchange for Moroccan normalization of relations with Israel marks a shameful day for America’s commitment to international law, human rights, and diplomacy.

With this decision, the United States becomes the only country in the world to recognize Morocco’s unilateral annexation of Western Sahara and further isolates itself on the international stage through its wanton disregard of the international norm of self-determination. Further, while Trump may claim this is an essential move toward peace in the Middle East, in fact this decision threatens to plunge an already volatile region deeper into crisis.

Located along the Atlantic Ocean and sandwiched between Mauritania and Morocco, Western Sahara is a former Spanish colony and current disputed territory. Roughly 70 percent of the territory is under de facto Moroccan control with the remaining 30 percent controlled by the Polisario, a local Sahrawi independence movement backed by Algeria and recognized by 39 other nations and the African Union as the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.

Large-scale conflict between Morocco and the Polisario began in 1975 following Spain’s withdrawal from the region. After a ceasefire in 1991, a U.N. peacekeeping force, MINURSO, was established with a primary mandate to “organize and ensure a free and fair referendum” on independence for the territory. Yet to date, no referendum has been held, and more than 100,000 refugees remain in camps located in the southern Algerian desert, with an additional 20,000 in Mauritania.

The International Court of Justice, in a major advisory ruling, supported this right for a free and fair referendum on self-determination in Western Sahara. A multitude of subsequent U.N. General Assembly and Security Council resolutions reaffirmed the right to self-determination for the Sahrawi people.


As the United Nations notes at the start of each resolution on Western Sahara, there is an “inalienable right of all peoples to self-determination and independence.” The Trump administration’s decision to unilaterally disregard this international norm dangerously undermines international law and the ability of peoples around the world to determine their own political status.

This decision not only subverts the power and authority of international law, but it also flies in the face of the long-held U.S. policy in support of a just and lasting political solution between Morocco and the Polisario.


Washington has consistently held the position that Morocco and the Polisario must come together to determine a mutually acceptable political solution to put an end to their conflict. In fact, from 1997 to 2004, former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker served as the U.N. Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy to Western Sahara and consistently pushed for a referendum on independence. The decision by a lame-duck president to disregard this policy damages U.S. credibility by calling into question Washington’s commitment to other long-held American positions elsewhere in the world.

Trump’s pronouncement also threatens to upend regional peace and security at an extraordinarily volatile time. While President Trump crowed on Twitter that this decision was “a massive breakthrough for peace in the Middle East,” in reality it is the opposite.

This unilateral decision will fuel recently renewed fighting between Morocco and the Polisario, which last month led to the collapse of the 29-year ceasefire. At a time of rising tensions in the Maghreb, this is a decision that will likely have far-reaching consequences for stability in the region, deeply complicate U.S. relations with Algeria, and stifle any chance for the Sahrawis to determine their own political future.

Undermining international law, disregarding long-standing U.S. policy, and contributing to the risk of regional conflict just to add a veneer of legitimacy to the Abraham Accords is a deal not worth making. As one of his first moves as president, Joe Biden must walk back this rash decision to recognize Moroccan control of Western Sahara.

At the same time, the Biden administration should work to ensure that Morrocco remains a close and valued American ally. The issue here is the recognition of the importance of following international law and maintaining global norms. Regardless of whether the people of Western Sahara choose autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty or independence, the decision must remain theirs alone.


President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Mike Pence participate in an expanded bilateral meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Monday, Jan. 27, 2020, in the Oval Office of the White House. (Official White House Photo by D. Myles Cullen)
google cta
Analysis | Middle East
Will Democrats pop Trump's $50 billion trial balloon for war?
Top image credit: Sens. Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) sit look on during a congressional hearing in January, 2025. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Sipa USA)

Will Democrats pop Trump's $50 billion trial balloon for war?

Washington Politics

On Wednesday, Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) told CNN that he would support new funding for the U.S. war with Iran — but only if Israel and Arab Gulf states help pay for it.

“We’re using our taxpayer money to protect those countries,” Gallego said. “We’re using our men to protect these countries. They need to throw in and have skin in the game too.”

keep readingShow less
Polymarket Iran War
Top photo credit: Polymarket logo (Shutterstock/PJ McDonald) and Scene following an airstrike on an Iranian police centre damaging residential buildings around it in Niloofar square in central Tehran on march 1, 2026. (Hamid Vakili/Parspix/ABACAPRESS.COM)

Prediction markets are a national security threat

Latest

Hours before an Israeli attack in Tehran killed Ayatollah Khamenei, an account on the prediction market Polymarket made over half a million dollars wagering that Iran’s Supreme Leader would vacate office before 3/31. That account, named “Magamyman,” was not the only one to cash in on the attacks.

Half a dozen Polymarket accounts made over $1.2M betting that the U.S. “strikes Iran by February 28, 2026.” Those accounts were allegedly paid for through cryptocurrency wallets that had previously not been funded prior to Feb. 27. Overall, prediction market users bet over $255M on markets related to the attacks in Iran on the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket alone.

keep readingShow less
Indonesia stock exchange
Top photo credit: (Shutterstock/Triawanda Tirta Aditya)

Trump's ‘move fast and break things’ war slams into economy

Middle East

The launch of joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran could lead to economic and financial disruptions that ripple across the countries of the Global South with devastating effects. And while a quick end to the war could dampen these effects, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has acknowledged that the war could even last up to 8 weeks, and Israel is now reportedly expecting a "weeks-long" war with Iran.

The fundamental issue here seems to be an increasingly expansive vision of American — and particularly Israeli — war aims. These have now gone well beyond Iran’s offer of substantial denuclearization to regime change, and some quarters have even more extreme visions like the potential Balkanization of Iran into multiple statelets. Such mission creep on the part of the U.S. and Israel has in turn changed incentive structures in Iran towards an expansion of the conflict to target both the Gulf States and global oil markets, a dynamic that threatens to broaden the conflict and extend it, with profound impacts on the global economy.

keep readingShow less
google cta
Want more of our stories on Google?
Click here to make us a Preferred Source.

LATEST

QIOSK

Newsletter

Subscribe now to our weekly round-up and don't miss a beat with your favorite RS contributors and reporters, as well as staff analysis, opinion, and news promoting a positive, non-partisan vision of U.S. foreign policy.